We will determine the air pollution distribution and change in and around hotspots over the last decade from extensive satellite and in-situ observations and we will employ a series of different scale models in order to analyze the impacts of air pollution hot spots on regional and global air quality including potential future changes for various climate scenarios. Focus is on ozone and particulate matter with chemical and physical characterization, and their precursors. The Eastern Mediterranean (Istanbul, Athens, Cairo), the Po Valley, the BeNeLux region, the Pearl River Delta in China (with megacities Guangzhou and Hong Kong) and the hot and polluted European summer 2003 are chosen for intensive case studies. The consortium includes groups from China, Turkey, Greece and Italy, in addition to France, Germany, UK and Norway, with experts on the observations, emission data and models. A set of chemical transport models which connect all the most important spatial and temporal scales will be developed and used to quantify how the observed air pollution arises. The models and emission inventories will be evaluated, errors identified and improved on the urban, regional and global spatial scales. Climate change may cause changes in air pollution in and around hotspots, and hotspot pollution can change precipitation and temperature/albedo. These feedbacks will be studied in scale-bridging model systems based on global climate model scenarios, and in a coupled high resolution chemistry-climate model. The model systems evaluated in the project will be applied to analyse mitigation options in and around hotpots, also taking into account climate change. Best available technologies and sectoral changes will be studied. Several partners have key roles in the technical underpinning of policy. They will ensure that the improved emission inventories, scale-bridging model systems and the systematic observational evidence will have a significant, broad and lasting impact.
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