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Climate Change - Terrestrial Adaption and Mitigation in Europe

Periodic Report Summary - CCTAME (Climate change - terrestrial adaption and mitigation in Europe)

The CC-TAME project assesses the impacts of agricultural, climate, energy, forestry and other associated land-use policies, considering the resulting feedback on the climate system in the European Union. Geographically explicit biophysical models together with an integrated cluster of economic land-use models are coupled with regional climate models to assess and identify mitigation and adaptation strategies in European agriculture and forestry.

Project scope
Global historical emissions from land-use are estimated to exceed those from fossil fuels by some 25 % and are currently considered to be the second largest sources of GHG emissions. In Europe, the agricultural sector is the third largest sector of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 9 % of EU-25 emissions. The main idea that led to the CC-TAME project is the vision of implementing a 'policy-model-data fusion' concept which shall guarantee efficient and effective mitigation and adaptation in the land-use sector and maximise benefits from policy coordination with other EU policies.

Challenge
Policy-model-data fusion results are regularly used for strategy building of future international climate policies of the European Union and are used to inform European policymakers for negotiations to implement European policies such as the European Emission Trading System and international negotiations at UNFCCC - COPs.

The land use sector is still poorly represented in these models and also lacks the 'policy' component in the fusion concept. The CC-TAME project is designed to fill this.

Objectives
CC-TAME's aim is to build a strong science-policy interface by delivering timely, relevant and understandable information from state-of-the-art policy impact assessments to the policy community. On the scientific-technical side, the project's expected impact is an assessment of the efficiency of current and future land use adaptation and mitigation processes and identification and quantification of the adaptation induced by policies.

Concept
The concept of CC-TAME is to model explicit land use on farm/forest management practice level taking into account the emerging technological changes in the land-use sector and its associated industries. CC-TAME will combine regional climate models with biophysical ecosystem models, which are rich in technology representation, with state of the art bottom-up type economic sector models embedded in the theory of modern welfare economics.

Integrated policy scenario assessment
The data and analysis tools of CC-TAME are employed to assess a wide range of environmental, agricultural, forest, and energy policy scenarios. Particular policies to be analysed include those aimed at enhancing or preserving carbon stocks, enhancing the use of bioenergy, as well as policies aimed at reducing non-CO2 GHG emissions from agriculture.

Main results achieved and work performed by T18
All biophysical models (agri and for) have been operationalised at European or regional levels and linkage to the respective economic models has been implemented. We have calculated base-line scenarios for the entire LULUCF sector which we are currently sharing with the Member States for review and validation. Analysis of the economics of mitigation in the LULUCF sector is currently underway and is also going to be reviewed by Member States.

Finally we have succeeded to establish a close working relationship with all Member States in Europe and the UNFCC policy process at large. After building and constantly implementing the regional climate scenarios we will move to a fully-fledged mitigation and adaptation analysis where we will focus on the co-benefits of mitigation and adaptation and identify thresholds. We anticipate to single out vulnerability hotspots in terms of geography and ecosystem type. Furthermore we will deepen the assessment on the efficiency and effectiveness of economic and regulatory instruments in the LULUCF sector.

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