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Energy and industrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios: Techno-economic assessment of mitigation policies

Objective

Specific Objectives:
1. To provide a detailed structure of the carbon emissions in energy- intensive sectors, such as road transportation, steel-making and cement, including the estimates of the marginal abatement cost curves for these sectors. To incorporate these results in the energy model POLES. To address, in agreement with DG ENV, the potential effects of sectoral policies to curb carbon emission from these sectors;
2. To expand the POLES model to cover energy markets in Candidate Countries. As a result, detailed forecasts on primary energy mix, electricity mix, sectoral demands by sectors, etc will be available. This is the main input to the Futures/Enlargement project at IPTS during 2003;
3. To co-ordinate and manage the development of a multi-sectoral modelling tool able to address the interaction of the energy sector with other economic sectors. The purpose of this tool is to address the impact of energy and environmental polices onto the general economic system, both within the EU-15 and in Candidate Countries. This activity will be carried out in close collaboration with DG ENV.

Anticipated milestones and schedule:

1.1 Dedicated report for road transportation 1.2 Dedicated report for road steel-making 1.3 Dedicated report for road cement;
2.1 Chapter on "Energy and Carbon Emissions" for the Futures/Enlargement Final Report;
3.1 Report on the economic effects of policies for the protection of climate in a multi-sectoral framework within an enlarged EU 3.2 Series of JRC-IPTS seminars, providing staff with the necessary know- how to prepare alternative scenarios.
Planned Deliverables:
1.1 Dedicated report for road transportation 1.2 Dedicated report for road steel-making 1.3 Dedicated report for road cement;
2.1 Chapter on "Energy and Carbon Emissions" for the Futures/Enlargement Final Report;
3.1 Report on the economic effects of policies for the protection of climate in a multi-sectoral framework within an enlarged EU 3.2 Series of JRC-IPTS seminars, providing staff with the necessary know-how to prepare alternative scenarios.
Summary of the Action:

The aim of this action is to provide updated and reliable projections on carbon emissions (possibly also from other GHG, in connection with actions within this ISA and ISA 7.1). It is expected also to deliver economic analyses on the impact of achieving specific GHG emission reduction targets implemented according to a variety of policy instruments (in the EU-15, in pre-accession countries as well as at global level). The tasks of this action include: Analyze the sectoral and geographical trends in anthropogenic GHG emissions and development of future scenarios with the appropriate modeling tools. Analyze the impact of technology progress and accelerated technology substitution in curbing GHG emissions and the associated emission reduction costs. Analyze the different implementation schemes of economic instruments (flexible mechanisms, domestic policies and measures, etc).

Analyze the interaction of GHG reduction policies with other environmental regulations promoted at EU-level (IPPC directive, etc). Incorporate elements concerning the economics of GHG sinks to the analytical tools addressing the search for the cost-efficient solution to fulfil specific targets. Rationale The EU has endorsed ambitious GHG emission reduction targets. The main objective of this action is to provide the elements of analysis necessary to design climate protection policies based in the abatement of GHG gases from anthropogenic origin, and to provide clues on the most appropriate pathways to achieve these objectives in an economically efficient manner. The analysis should pay particular attention to energy-related CO2 emissions, as well as other GHG emitted from economic activities. The tasks of this action include: The issues concerning international climate protection negotiations require that the Commission develops its own know-how in forecasting carbon and other GHG emissions at world level.

This action aims at providing the EC with the appropriate quantitative tools to support and reinforce its policy views in international negotiation climate-protection fora. The design of internal climate-protection regulatory measure within the EU also requires support in addressing the potential benefits and costs of particular measures: carbon/energy taxes, emission trading mechanisms, etc. The interaction of climate protection policies with other domestic EU policies (IPPC directive, etc) requires an in-house analysis of the potential conflicts or synergies between these policy instruments.

Funding Scheme

JRC - Joint Research Centre research

Coordinator

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Address
Edificio Expo, C/ Inca Garcilaso S/n
E-41092 Seville
Spain