The focus of this research project will be to scan a wide range of policy scenarios as to their relevance for the European Sustainable Development Strategy in view of Extended Impact Assessment. Embedded in the TranSust network of researchers, with its expertise in modelling the transition to sustainable economic structures, the project will link and expand an extensive set of available models. Using a scenario approach in cooperation with stakeholders, these models will address the strategic policy options.
In a first step, existing models will be extended to reflect the multi-functionality aspect of sustainability policies and their trade-offs with other policies. In addition to the traditional economic, environmental and social issues, the expanded models will address the new policy agenda as put forward by the Lisbon Strategy of the European Union and the World Summit for Economic Development. The models will therefore be able to deal with competitiveness, economic development, security, the preparations for Beyond-Kyoto policies, and interaction between technological change and the use of natural resources.
In a second step, this enhanced set of models will be used for a comprehensive analysis of a wide range of policy scenarios. In designing the scenarios, a participatory approach will emphasise close cooperation with stakeholders, Commission services, and international organisations. By back-casting the path dependency and by simulating the range of assumptions, the scenario analysis will reveal the sensitivity of forecasts.
The methodology and databases will be made available to institutions involved in policy decision-making. TranSust.Scan aims to enhance European competence and expertise for dealing with the emerging extended facets of sustainability and their implications for policy design. Besides supporting strategic policy preparation for the European Union, the dissemination activities will address non-European institutions.
Call for proposal
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Funding SchemeSTREP - Specific Targeted Research Project