Skip to main content

Development of a Forecasting Framework and Scenarios to Support the EU Sustainable Development Strategy

Objective

FORESCENE will develop an analytical framework for consistent environmental sustainability scenario building (forecasting, back-casting, simulation) in areas such as water, soil, biodiversity, waste and natural resources. Problem issues and priority policy fields such as agriculture, infrastructures/land use, industry/economy will be selected in close contact with the EU Commission. The project will focus on back-casting, to identify different scenarios leading to the achievement of future targets.

FORESCENE will
- describe the chosen environmental problems, review policy objectives and indicators, and determine the cross-cutting driving forces;
- develop core elements of integrated sustainability scenarios (goal definition);
- determine measures and processes to be considered for change (pre-back-casting);
- address quantitative and qualitative parameters for measurement (parameterization);
- develop a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario framework and example projections (forecasting);
- develop alternative scenarios (incl. Back-casting);
- check the options for modelling, and
- work out conclusions.

To integrate the eight steps FORESCENE will organize a series of workshops to involve DG's and stakeholders, to integrate knowledge on
- cross-cutting drivers of various environmental problems and priority policy fields, and
- to define essentials for integrated sustainability scenarios in terms of goals and cross-cutting policy measures.

Further experts will be involved at various stages of the project. The project will result in recommendations for future policy development with regard to the EU's sustainability strategy and the framework for Impact Assessments and concrete proposals for the use and extension of existing simulation models.

Call for proposal

FP6-2004-SSP-4
See other projects for this call

Funding Scheme

STREP - Specific Targeted Research Project

Coordinator

WUPPERTAL INSTITUT FUER KLIMA, UMWELT, ENERGIE GMBH.
Address
Doeppersberg 19
Wuppertal
Germany

Participants (5)

LUNDS UNIVERSITET
Sweden
Address
Paradisgatan 5C
117 Lund
SERI - NACHHALTIGKEITSFORSCHUNGS UND -KOMMUNICAKATIONS GMBH
Austria
Address
Garnisongasse 7/27
Vienna
THE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CENTER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
Hungary
Address
Ady Endre Ut 9-11
Szentendre
THE UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM
United Kingdom
Address
University Park
Nottingham
UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI FIRENZE
Italy
Address
Piazza San Marco 4
Firenze