Final Report Summary - DU (Demographic Uncertainty)
The objective of this project was to better understand the interactions between the economic and demographic variables, while insisting on the stochastic nature of the demographic trends. Too often, demography is apprehended as a variable determined in advance, which from our point of view, strongly limit the analysis. We built an integrated model allowing to understand the effects of the demographic changes on the micro-economic behaviors such as the savings, the retirement from labor market, or the portfolio choices, and on the macroeconomic aggregates such as the GDP. We applied this model to challenges generated by the increase in longevity, the fall in fertility and the evolution of migration flows. Our integrated modeling allowed for a better reproduction of empirical observations and thus helped to propose explanatory frameworks. For example, we highlighted that ageing necessarily did not result in delaying the retirement age and that immigration could be an opportunity for the host country.