Objective
Forecasting is a fundamental tool in Economics, Statistics, Business and other sciences. Judging whether forecasts are good and robust is of great importance since forecasts are used everyday to guide policymakers' and practitioners' decisions. The proposal aims at developing three tools for improving the way forecasts are evaluated as well as establishing a research network on time series econometrics and forecasting, essential for my permanent integration at the host institution and the successful continuation of my research career in Europe.
The three tools that the proposal plans to develop are aimed at resolving three important practical issues that researchers face in practice. The first project, titled “Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size”, aims at developing methods to evaluate forecasts that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The choice of the window size has always been a concern for practitioners, since the use of different window sizes may lead to different empirical results in practice. The second project, titled “Forecast Optimality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities”, aims at developing tests for forecast efficiency that are robust to the presence of instabilities. Existing techniques are invalid in the presence of instabilities. The third and most ambitious project, titled “Why Do We Do Forecast Tests?”, aims at understanding the relationship between traditional in-sample tests and forecast evaluation tests.
In order to successfully complete these projects in Europe, where I have been offered a job starting in January 2012, funding to visit co-authors in the US, present my research projects to conferences, hire research assistants and organize conferences and host co-authors will be essential. These activities will contribute to the creation of a research network benefiting the host institution, policy institutions in Europe (e.g. the ECB) as well as students, practitioners and researchers.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
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Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
FP7-PEOPLE-2011-CIG
See other projects for this call
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
MC-CIG - Support for training and career development of researcher (CIG)
Coordinator
08002 Barcelona
Spain
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.