Final Report Summary - SAT-BBE (Systems Analysis Tools Framework for the EU Bio-Based Economy Strategy)
Executive Summary:
Key findings
First, the scope of the bioeconomy systems analysis tools framework has been defined using the relatively broad and generic definition of the EC (2012). Though not explicitly mentioned it is essential that the bioeconomy moves from a linear to a (more) circular economy and values non-market ecosystem services, and at the same time contributes to competitive opportunities of the concerned biobased sectors through innovation and technical change.
Second, a conceptual system analyses framework for the bioeconomy has been developed based on a supply-demand framework that connects the building blocks (drivers, impacts, responses) for analysing impacts, trade-off and synergy effects that go along with a transition to a biobased economy). The SAT-BBE consortium identified and analysed the most important interactions and feedback effects between the bioeconomy and other parts of the economy (e.g. fossil and energy based industries), taking into account developments in system drivers (e.g. economic development, innovation and technical change) and constraints (e.g. land, water, non-renewable natural resources, labour). Impacts are measured in relation to the five societal challenges of the EC Bioeconomy Strategy. In next steps, policy and strategic management responses can be implemented in order to influence the demand and supply system drivers for meeting the targets of the Bioeconomy Strategy and other policies.
Third, a systems analysis toolkit has been designed using existing data and model approaches. There is the need to consider multiple scales and dimensions when monitoring the evolution and impacts of the bioeconomy. Tools are classified in General and Partial Equilibrium models (GE and PE), bottom up approaches and Integrated Assessment Models. Detailed description of these tools, in terms of their main applications, insights, and their strengths and limitations with respect to the assessment of biomass supply and its societal impacts. A number of operational models that are potentially suitable to monitor and evaluate the bioeconomy and its trade-offs. Existing models are currently extended to include more bioeconomy sectors (e.g. MAGNET and Globiom).
Fourth, it can be concluded that no ‘super model’ exists (nor should be designed) that covers all societal challenges and multi-dimensional relationships in the bioeconomy. Each model has its specific strengths and weaknesses, which means that models needs to be linked in an operational, transparent and systematic way to monitor the evolution and impacts of the bioeconomy and to investigate impacts and potential trade-off and synergy effects, tailored to the specific aim of the analysis or policy question. Linking of models through ‘loose coupling’, instead of integration of modules, is a suitable option to further operationalize the SAT-BBE framework and toolkit and provides the flexibility to include models based on specific needs of the assessment.
Fifth, For each of the five societal challenges of the EC Bioeconomy Strategy the required data and models, as well as the gaps in available and required data and models. In general it can be concluded that data, indicators and models are fairly well established for traditional sectors of the bioeconomy (agriculture, fishery, forestry, food, paper and pulp, textile), but less for the innovative sectors (e.g. bioenergy and biochemicals) and less for specific aspects, such as land use, employment, soil quality, etc..
Recommendations for further research
Research is required to test the applicability of the systems analysis tools framework and toolkit developed in SAT-BBE for various different research questions and policy assessments. Most importantly
• Gaps exist especially for ‘new’ and innovative sectors of the bioeconomy regarding the availability of socio-economic indicators such as cost structures, break-even prices, value added, employment, technological potential of economies of scale and technological learning effects.
• ‘Quality’ aspects of natural resources like land and water must be captured in environmental models in order to assess how ecosystems impacts could result from alternative pathways driving towards a biobased economy. Feedbacks between environmental and economic models needs to be strengthened.
• Existing models cover already many aspects of the bioeconomy and are strong in the field of agriculture, forestry, energy or economy wide coverage. New biobased sectors are currently built in but data are limited available and weak. To cover the entire bioeconomy there is a trend in equilibrium models that GE models are extended with new and more detailed sectors and PE models are used in combination with one other.
Project Context and Objectives:
Project context
One of the biggest challenges of the coming decades is the sustainable provision of food, water, energy and other ecosystem services to a world that will see its population increase by a third during the coming two decades. In 2012, the European Commission (EC) launched the new strategy on the Bioeconomy , which consists of a Bioeconomy Strategy and an Action Plan. The Bioeconomy Strategy aims at tackling the key five societal challenges:
1. ensuring food security;
2. managing natural resources sustainably;
3. reducing dependence on non-renewable resources;
4. mitigating and adapting to climate change; and
5. creating jobs and maintaining European competitiveness.
The focus of the Action Plan is on 1) investing in research, innovation and skills; 2) reinforcing policy interaction and stakeholder engagement; and 3) enhancing markets and competitiveness in the bioeconomy.
Given that the time needed to realise social and technological solutions is often considerable, a framework is needed to structure long-term analytical capacity for providing guidance for designing and implementing consistent, coherent, long-term strategies for the bioeconomy. Therefore, the EC launched the “Systems Analysis Tools Framework for the EU Bio-Based Economy Strategy” (SAT-BBE) project to design an analysis framework for monitoring the evolution and impacts of the bioeconomy. Second, the EC started a complementary project, which is the ’Bioeconomy Information System Observatory’ (BISO) project. The objective of BISO is to bring together the data, indicators and tools needed to monitor the progress, assess the impacts, and model future scenarios of the bioeconomy.
Project objectives
The objective of the SAT-BBE project was to design a systems analysis tools framework that can be used to monitor the evolution of the bioeconomy in the EU and also the socio-economic and environmental impacts of the bioeconomy and relevant policies.
The systems analysis tools framework needs to the ability to capture both the relevant policies and also other drivers of the bioeconomy and must be able to evaluate the impacts of the bioeconomy on the five societal challenges of the EC Bioeconomy Strategy.
The SAT-BBE project was carried out by a consortium of internationally recognized research institutes from the EU and the US. During the two and a half years project duration the SAT-BBE consortium designed a systems analysis tools framework, based on the broad experience available in the consortium with modelling socio-economic and environmental development and impacts. The SAT-BBE project consists of three phases shown in Figure 6.
Results
To achieve the above objectives the SAT-BBE project has provided a systematic overview of relevant data, indicators and modelling tools. From this overview a systems analysis tools framework and toolkit systems are compiled that can be used for both quantitative and qualitative analyses (e.g. foresight analyses) describing:
• the bioeconomy development in the European Union and its interactions between the rest of the economy;
• the impacts of bioeconomy development on main societal challenges such as food security, use and quality of environmental resources, and job creation and competitiveness.
The development of the systems analysis tools framework and toolkit contribute to a better conceptual understanding of the correlations and impacts and of the bioeconomy and potential synergy and trade-off effects. Future research priorities are formulated regarding gaps in data and modelling capacity. The systems analysis tools framework designed in the SAT-BBE project provides a solid basis for further operationalisation and application of models and tools for evaluating the development and impacts of the bioeconomy.
Project Results:
The findings and conclusions dedicated to the three phases in the SAT-BBE work programme, as presented in Figure 6, have been reported in written documents. Figure 7 gives links to the reports.
4.1.3.1 WP1 - Scoping and definition of the systems analysis framework
Objectives
• To structure the concepts to be used in a bioeconomy strategy, including both the place of sustainability within the bioeconomy, and the biobased sectors and its drivers (principally bio-technology) in relation to the rest of the economy.
• To elaborate the foundations (in the sense of appropriate data and indicators) for a systems analysis framework to evaluate and monitor the implementation of a bioeconomy strategy, in particular in relation to other EU policies where there are interdependencies.
• To communicate the conceptual structure of a systems analysis framework as can be applied to an EU bioeconomy strategy.
Description of results
Defining the EU bioeconomy. The EC formulated the following definition that was published in the ‘Communication on Innovating for Sustainable Growth: A Bioeconomy for Europe’ (EC, 29 February, 2012):
‘‘The bioeconomy encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and their conversion into food, feed, bio-based products and bioenergy. It includes agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food and pulp and paper production, as well as parts of chemical, biotechnological and energy industries. Its sectors have a strong innovation potential due to their use of a wide range of sciences (life sciences, agronomy, ecology, food science and social sciences), enabling and industrial technologies (biotechnology, nanotechnology, information and communication technologies (ICT), and engineering), and local and tacit knowledge.’
This definition of the bioeconomy is sufficiently generic to capture the broad scope and goal of the SAT-BBE project and to make sustainability and the societal challenges of the Bioeconomy Strategy an integral element of the systems analysis tools framework that needs to be developed in this project, including related concepts such as the circular economy and (non-market) ecosystem services (see further Report 1.1).
Although not explicitly mentioned in the definition it implicitly takes into account the concept of a circular flow of materials and feedbacks within the economy and the role of (non-market) ecosystem services.
Scoping the EU bioeconomy. The SAT-BBE systems analysis tools framework aimed to monitor, model and assess the evolution and impacts of the bioeconomy from different perspectives (see further SAT-BBE Report 1.2 and Report 1.3):
• multiple scales: comprising the analysis of specific products, the wide array of sectors and processes at the level of entire economies;
• local to global level impacts: considering that impacts manifest differently at different scales of analysis, and taking in particular care to distinguish between impacts within the EU and impacts abroad in a systemic way that avoids leakage effects, i.e. problem shifting from one sector or region to another;
• interlinkages between the economy, society and environment: in particular taking into account how changes in demand and production affect food security or natural ecosystems, and vice versa;
• possible futures in light of mega trends: including consideration of factors outside the scope of modelling, like population growth, and how such trends and factors affect possible bioeconomy development pathways;
• innovation: in particular taking into account technological change in production and manufacturing (such as genetically modified organisms and advanced bioenergy and biochemical production systems), but also considering social innovation and changed behaviours in the context of the bioeconomy, like reducing food waste, and distinguishing between incremental and radical changes;
• sustainability: considering how the bioeconomy and processes within the bioeconomy contribute to reaching sustainability targets, like the sustainable development goals, and also developing indicators and targets to benchmark sustainability in a quantifiable way at different levels of analysis. Important thereby are (potential) trade-off and synergy effects of different sustainability targets;
• policy relevant questions: keeping in mind the key research questions and political relevance, in particular to help maintain focus and avoid becoming lost in the complexity of the system.
Designing a conceptual framework of the bioeconomy. A conceptual framework of the bioeconomy has been designed that shows the correlations between the bioeconomy and the rest of the economy using the Driver-Impact-Response (DIR) framework for the bioeconomy (Figure 8). This framework consists of three main elements: drivers and pressures, impacts and mechanisms, and responses and other policy issues. The key drivers and pressures (inc. constraints) of the bioeconomy are:
1. demographics (e.g. population growth, education, human capital);
2. consumer preferences (consumer behaviour);
3. economic development (employment, competitiveness);
4. global environmental change;
5. resource availability (e.g. land, water, non-renewable natural resources)
The framework also shows the importance of considering supply-demand mechanisms, which are crucial for evaluating the impact of the bioeconomy on the societal challenges. Important thereby is the impact of agriculture and forestry, energy and trade policy and other strategic decisions. The framework ensures that these elements are discussed in a comprehensive and consistent manner so that all direct and indirect trade-off and synergy effects are considered
4.1.3.2 WP2 - Tools for evaluating and monitoring
Objectives
• To identify the data and indicators required for evaluating and monitoring the implementation of the EU bio-based economy strategy.
• To provide the knowledge references (in terms of data and indicators) both for the elaboration of the systems analysis tools framework in Phase 3 as well as for the work to complete the EU bio-based economy strategy in the future.
Description of results
Overview of data and indicators. First, an overview is compiled of datasets and indicators relevant when evaluating the evolution and impacts of the bioeconomy and especially the systems analysis framework (Report 2.1 and Report 2.2 respectively). Gaps in availability and quality of data and indicators are identified with respect to spatial (regional), temporal (times series) or thematic (sectoral, societal challenge) coverage. Gaps in data are especially relevant for innovative, new biobased sectors and specific issues (e.g. land use change, soil quality) and indicators. The availability and quality of social indicators is also an area of concern.
Overview of models and tools. Second, an overview of the modelling tools is made, whereby each model and tool is classified according to both the type, territorial scale, input data, output data and indicators and main application area (Table 3). Further, the strengths and weaknesses of different models and tools are confronted with linkages in the conceptual framework of the bioeconomy (Figure 4). Essential components of the systems analysis tools framework are economic models that consider supply and demand interactions and thereby also potential trade-off and synergy effects.
Global computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are especially suitable to evaluate economy-wide impacts of agriculture, energy and trade policies, including subsequent effects on GDP, employment, land-use change, GHG emissions etc. Key strengths are the comprehensive coverage of economic sectors and regions to account for inter-linkages and the explicit modelling of limited economic resources. Limitations are that the CGE models necessitates a simplified representation of agent choices, in particular favouring relatively simple and smooth mathematical forms which help to reduce the number of parameters required to calibrate the models.
Partial equilibrium (PE) models have a more detailed coverage of sectors and often explicitly show biophysical flows and absolute prices. PE models usually also have a high(er) level of detail with respect to regional aspects, policy measures and environmental indicators as well as a higher level of sectoral detail. Disadvantages are that the impacts and economy-wide linkages with other key sectors that are not represented are ignored and that macro-economic balances are thus not considered. The limited supply of key resources and inputs into productive activities within the economy (such as labour and capital) also tend to be ignored.
Bottom-up models deal with a wide variety of specific (often technical) aspects of biomass production, conversion and use. Bottom-up models are used to validate other studies with a broader scope, such as PE and CGE models and IAMs, and tend to be more process-based models with an engineering or biophysical focus.
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) integrate different relevant systems in one modelling framework. IAMs make it possible to analyse feedbacks between human and nature systems and also trade-offs and synergies of policy strategies. Disadvantages are the high complexity and the high level of aggregation (or other simplifications) necessary to maintain computational tractability.
The results of these deliverables have been summarised in Report 2.4. Although it is difficult to be accurate with the judgment of the data availability and quality, the SAT-BBE consortium members conclude that major gaps and uncertainties exist in the availability of data, indicators and partially also in modelling capacity (see also WP 3).
4.1.3.3 WP3 - Systems analysis protocols
Objectives
• To identify the appropriate analytical tools (in terms of operational effectiveness and efficiency) to be used for a systems analysis of the bio-based economy within the EU.
• To specify (and to develop, as is reasonable within this project) the possibility for linking tools through software development.
• To elaborate the interfaces with the analytical tools for non-specialists, as is deemed practical.
• To communicate the solution found for the design of the systems analysis tools framework
Description of results
An inventory of appropriate analytical tools useful for the systems analysis framework of the bioeconomy has been carried out and linkages between model components have been described (Report 3.1). The main entry points for linkages between models are prices or quantities that are crucial when evaluating supply demand interactions. Given the complexity of the global economy and biosphere and the inherent uncertainties when modelling these, it is unrealistic to expect that a total harmonization of models would be possible, since each component of the global economy or eco-sphere requires a certain degree of specialization in the models that are trying to capture it. Instead, software routines are required to link compatible models to provide for non-specialists with the means to interact with the quantitative tools used within the framework (user interfaces for specific applications or enquires).
Linking of models can be done via loose coupling or soft linking. Soft links imply that models are connected exogenously by transferring the outcomes of scenario model runs from one component or model to another and hard links mean that models exchange information and are solved iteratively, meaning that the solutions are internally consistent between models. A graphical user interface (GUI) is used as a ‘translation module’ among the various model types in the framework. This GUI is model independent, and can be linked to intermediate operation systems such as a scenario definition system, the scenario run manager and the scenario output processor (Figure 9).
Three types of user interfaces can be distinguished, namely 1) interfaces to get access to statistical databases; 2) interfaces that give access to individual models; 3) interfaces to make integrated model results accessible for policy analysts and other non-specialist users. The last two types are relevant in order to make the SAT framework operational for researchers from different disciplines, as well as end-users of the tools output such as policy makers or other (non-researcher) stakeholders (Report 3.2).
Next, the results of the previous work packages have been combined into a systemic framework for evaluating and monitoring the implementation of the EU bioeconomy strategy (Figure 10; Report 3.3). This systems analysis framework for the bioeconomy has been based on the conceptual systems analysis framework for the bioeconomy (Figure 8) and complies with the policy topics or societal challenges highlighted in the Bioeconomy Strategy.
Data, indicators and models are fairly well established for the traditional sectors of the bioeconomy (agriculture, fishery, forestry, food, paper and pulp, textile), but gaps exist for how ‘new’ and innovative sectors of the bioeconomy are captured (materials, chemistry, energy and specific aspects, such as land use, employment, soil quality, etc. Especially data on value added, employment, cost structures, breakeven points, technological potential for scale economies, and learning effects are missing for the new bioeconomy sectors.
Table 1 (see page 5, in section Executive Summary) gave an overview of the models and tools in the systems analyses tools framework and toolkit, by looking at the following issues:
- What are existing data and models that can monitor and evaluate the bioeconomy and its impacts? These are considered from different perspectives (economic, environmental, geographic, sector detail);
- What are the gaps in the availability of existing data and models? Which bioeconomy related aspects can already be analysed with current data and models, which cannot yet be addressed.
- What are options to close these gaps? What is needed for additional data collecting and how should provide these additional data.
Finally, there is an urgent need to develop (reference) scenarios that can describe the potential impacts of uncertainties (speed of technology change, biomass availability, oil and biomass prices) on the long-term development of the bioeconomy, taking account of driving factors (assumptions) and a smart set of environmental and socio-economic criteria and indicators. The systems analysis framework and toolkit developed in the SAT-BBE project can be helpful to develop such as baseline scenario, whereby an essential prerequisite is that gaps in data and modelling capacity are systematically closed.
4.1.3.4 WP4 - Communication and Dissemination
Objectives
• Involvement of peer expertise from outside of the consortium.
• Timely dissemination of project output with the public and interested parties.
• Effective communication about the project (its ambitions, participants and outputs) outside of the consortium, especially with the Commission.
Description of results
To raise awareness of SAT-BBE, the consortium has created a flyer to be distributed through all partners to any dissemination event they participate in). This SAT-BBE flyer is also accessible and downloadable through the SATT-BBE website. Secondly, disseminations social media channels Twitter and LinkedIn have been linked to the SAT-BBE home page website. The progress of SAT-BBE has been regularly sent out by means of these social media channels.
Moreover, the SAT-BBE project website (SAT-BBE website) and SAT-BBE logo have been designed. Identification with relevant and interested audiences (e.g. the BioObservatory platform) and aligned EC based bioeconomy research (e.g. BERST project) have been established. The dissemination has been updated regularly for events, news and publication series related to the SAT-BBE project, in order to keep up with developments in and outside the project. The external SAT-BBE website contains an internal partner portal, meant to store joint, internal dissemination material (like internal reports, decisions made at internal project meetings).
A plan of the dissemination of the project output with the public and interested parties has been launched (Report 4.1). It includes the communication about the ambitions, participants and outputs of the project outside the consortium, especially with the Commission.
Liaison activities in the context of the SAT-BBE project have been sought among projects and initiatives with similar objectives, methodologies deployed and tools designed regarding the development of the EU bioeconomy. Close cooperation have been established with platforms and projects. Main aims of such liaison activities were to search for complementary activities, as well as to create synergy effects across those similarly projects and platforms. Most reflected a similar goal, like closing the knowledge gap with regard to data and tools that are able to monitor and evaluate the development of the EU bioeconomy. During the SAT-BBE project period, liaison activities have been performed with the following relevant platforms and projects:
• BISO - Bioeconomy Observatory project, led by JRC-IPTS (March 2013-Feb 2016). The SAT-BBE coordinator, Hans van Meijl gave a presentation named ‘Systems Analysis Tools Framework for the BioEconomy’ (SAT-BBE presentation), with the objective to introduce the SAT-BBE project to the stakeholders participating in the First Stakeholders Round Table, organized for the Bioeconomy Observatory by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. It took place in Brussels on 26 November 2013. The presentation discussed the set-up of the SAT-BBE project and the project partners, introduced the stakeholders into the bioeconomy and its drivers, impacts and responses as defined within the SAT-BBE framework. Further, several examples were given of recent bioeconomy studies completed by the SAT-BBE teams, which illustrated the potential of relevant data and models for the assessments of bieconomies in various countries.
• SCAR-SBGB – Standing Committee on Agricultural Research- Strategic Work Group on Bioeconomy. This Work Group is advising the SCAR on opportunities and risks, research questions and actions needed in the new field of bioeconomy. Focus is on sustainability questions around the bioeconomy and strategic questions like the scope and playing field of the bioeconomy, the knowledge and innovation agenda. This is done in close cooperation with the Bioeconomy Observatory and the bioeconomy panel, but there are synergies with the SAT-BBE project as well. The coordinator of the SWG on bioeconomy invited the SAT-BBE team to participate in their stakeholder meeting of June 2014, and to give a presentation on SAT-BBE projects and its expected impacts. One of the objectives of this meeting was to search for possibilities to cooperate and to create synergies among both platforms.
• Within the SCOPE framework, the SAT-BBE coordinator Hans van Meijl from LEI Wageningen UR, joined an international Rapid Assessment Process (RAP) project, and led the production of a background chapter on Bioenergy Economics. With decreasing oil reserves, bioenergy’s provide a promising alternative. The paper has been published in March 2015, and also uses some relevant findings from the SAT-BBE project. The project is initiated by FAPESP, the State of São Paulo Research Foundation Research (Brazil), through its BIOEN, Global Climate Changes, and BIOTA Programmes. The implementation of policy for the replacement of fossil fuel by biofuels is a critical issue in many countries. Hans van Meijl also participated at the RAP workshop that was hold in Paris on 2-6 December 2013. More information about the Scope project can be found at: Scope - Bioenergy & Sustainability Project: Bridging the Gaps
• Several SAT-BBE partners participated in SCAR 4th Foresight expert workshops in Brussels aimed to explore potential future development paths of the bioeconomy. The meetings took place in November 2014 and February 2015. The 4th SCAR Foresight exercise explores the interactions between the primary sector and the bioeconomy. With an emphasis on the future, the exercise explores not only what will happen, but also what might happen by developing the paradigm of the bioeconomy, with the fundamental constraint of sustainability. Internal contradictions within sectors, and possible conflicts among sectors, are a major point of interest. The Foresight exercises proceeds in a participative way. For this purpose three interactive Brussels-based workshops have been organised with experts, members of the SCAR and its working groups, the European Commission and various stakeholders of the bioeconomy. These workshops in November 2014 and February 2015 explored and determine the key dilemmas governing the interactions between the primary sector and the bioeconomy and structuring the foresight work.
• BERST - Bioeconomy Regional Strategy Toolkit FP7 project, led by LEI Wageningen UR (Dec 2013-Nov 2015). The purpose of BERST is to explore the bioeconomy potential of EU regions. The main question is how to close the gap between the current and future bioeconomy potential of EU regions. The elaborated conceptual systems analysis framework for the EU bioeconomy, as described in Deliverable 1.4 of SAT-BBE, has been introduced and used as base for explaining the working of the regional bioeconomy system in the BERST project, in terms of criteria and indicators, and instruments and measures.
4.1.3.5 WP5 - Coordination and Project Management
Objectives
• Well-coordinated partner interaction.
• Timely delivery of quality output.
• Effective communication outside of the consortium, especially with the Commission.
Description of results
Project activities have been coordinated by the LEI Wageningen UR team. Examples of such activities were work package guidance, work programme progress monitoring (delivery of output on time at the desired level of quality), communication with partners and the European Commission, project reporting.
Project meetings have been organized. First, three external meetings were organised with participation of SAT-BBE consortium members, EC representatives and people from the Advisory Group. Second, three internal project meetings have been organized, to discuss the progress of the work packages. Finally, LEI Wageningen UR provided the consortium meeting minutes. Table 4 contains an overview of the meetings organised in the SAT-BBE project.
Potential Impact:
Scientific Results and impacts
The SAT-BBE project has made scientific contributions, and also wanted to build bridges to the policy community. The project provided the following scientific innovations:
• a review of the state-of-the art in systems analysis of the bioeconomy;
• the design of a systems analysis tools framework in itself is a methodological innovation; the consortium brought together a wide range of knowledge about the bioeconomy from the perspective of different regions and sectors.
These innovations have the purpose to affect and support the decision makers in the field of agricultural and trade policies, natural resource management, climate change and energy policies policy, and science and technology policies:
• to get a deeper understanding of the indicators and associated data requirements (and availability) that grasp the state of the bioeconomy and its future dynamics;
• to get a deeper understanding of the indicators and associated data requirements (and availability) that are able to measure the contribution of evolving bioeconomy sectors to sustainability goals of the EU and to those of the global community;
• to provide a conceptual analysis basis and decision platform for the assessment of policy measures linked to the EU Bioeconomy Strategy;
• to provide a conceptual basis for doing foresight and ex-ante analyses, that might help to identify future policy issues and help to improve the ability of decision makers to move towards a greener Common Agricultural Policy and a more responsible Common Fish Policy on the long term;
• to provide systems analysis for understanding and explaining observed impacts of policies.
The targeted audience are policy makers and other stakeholders in the EU facing the development of the bioeconomy. Dissemination work has been bundled into easy to read public papers (Report 1.4 Report 2.4 and Final report 3.3) for stakeholders, primarily oriented towards EU decision makers. The key findings and recommendations of SAT-BBE are:
• Data, indicator and model gaps exist for ‘new’ and innovative sectors of the bioeconomy (construction, chemistry, energy). With regard to the impact of the bioeconomy on food security there exist data gaps on household income and expenditure data, nutrition intake, own consumption and health data.
• Agricultural PE models make use of commodity balances. From the bioeconomy perspective, and in order to regard competition for different use of crops (waste), more detail in the commodity balance is required (food, feed, seed, and material use). As Eurostat is responsible for providing agricultural commodity balances (at EU country level), this disaggregation of the extended biomass use and supply options might be a task of Eurostat as well. Hopefully this work would also extend to the international FAOSTAT database which is needed for global consistency in modelling international trade b/w the EU and the rest of the world.
• One ’super model’ does not seem appropriate to tackle the multi-dimensional systemic relationships within the bioeconomy. Instead, a variety of models and model types should be compared, combined and deployed as a toolbox for monitoring the bioeconomy.
• There is a need to capture the impacts of the development of the bioeconomy on biodiversity and the non-provisioning, supporting, regulating and cultural ecosystem services, and thus on the state of natural capital. This requires a better integration of ‘quality’ aspects of natural resources like land and water in environmental models in order to assess how important ecosystem impacts could result from alternative pathways driving from a fossil-based towards a more biobased economy.
• Need to improve model collaboration and tools to better account for land resource availability as well as land use intensity and make optimal use of the available data and empirical evidence to make the assessments correspond more closely to reality.
• Need to determine the sustainable supply capacity of wastes and residues from a systemic perspective as well as to further understanding of how different possible development pathways of the European bioeconomy will impact natural ecosystems across the planet.
• Need to develop a baseline scenario that is able to describe the long-term development of the bioeconomy, taking account of driving factors (assumptions) and a smart set of environmental and socio-economic criteria and indicators.
Societal implications
The SAT-BBE team briefed the project’s main partners in the European Commission on the scientific progress in Brussels meetings on respectively 26 April 2013 (WP1), 13 March 2014 (WP2), and 23 March 2015 (WP3). Staff from DG AGRI, DG Growth, JRC-IPTS, DG ENERGY and DG Research & Innovation participated. The main conclusion of the meetings was that policy makers need insight in the availability of different tools to measure impacts of and to monitor the development of the bioeconomy. In view of the EC intention to establish a European bioeconomy strategy, the design of a systems analysis tools framework should provide the technical support for such a strategy, and must enable the EU to evaluate the impacts of its strategy as well as to monitor the trajectory of its evolution.
The SAT-BBE project has indicated what the gaps are between requirements and availability of data and modelling tools. Relevant questions included: What are the pros and cons of these tools? For which bioeconomy research questions could tools be applied and for which questions is that not yet possible? In this way, the SAT-BBE project supports the Commission with targeting its research and development agenda, and assesses whether or not specific data and tools need new or further development. Such targeting actions are essential to ensure that the current and future analyses and monitorings are captured in sufficient and efficient ways.
Liaison activities in the context of the SAT-BBE project have been arranged among projects and initiatives with similar objectives, methodologies deployed and tools designed regarding the development of the EU bioeconomy. Similar goals referred to closing the knowledge gap with regard to data and tools that are able to monitor and evaluate the development of the EU bioeconomy. Following liaison activities have been performed (see more in section 4.1.3.4):
• BISO - Bioeconomy Observatory project, led by JRC-IPTS (March 2013-Feb 2016). The SAT-BBE coordinator, Hans van Meijl gave a presentation named ‘Systems Analysis Tools Framework for the BioEconomy’ (SAT-BBE presentation), with the objective to introduce the SAT-BBE project to the stakeholders participating in the First Stakeholders Round Table, organized for the Bioeconomy Observatory by EC-JRC.
• SCAR-SBGB – Standing Committee on Agricultural Research- Strategic Work Group on Bioeconomy. This Work Group is advising the SCAR on opportunities and risks, research questions and actions needed in the new field of bioeconomy. This was done in close cooperation with the Bioeconomy Observatory and the bioeconomy panel, but there were synergies with the SAT-BBE project as well.
• Within the SCOPE framework, the SAT-BBE coordinator Hans van Meijl from LEI Wageningen UR, joined an international Rapid Assessment Process (RAP) project, and led the production of a background chapter on Bioenergy Economics. More information: Scope - Bioenergy & Sustainability Project: Bridging the Gaps.
• Several SAT-BBE partners participated in SCAR 4th Foresight expert workshops in Brussels aimed to explore potential future development paths of the bioeconomy. The meetings took place in Nov 2014 and Feb 2015. The 4th SCAR Foresight exercise explores the interactions between the primary sector and the bioeconomy.
• BERST - Bioeconomy Regional Strategy Toolkit FP7 project, led by LEI Wageningen UR (Dec 2013-Nov 2015). The purpose of BERST is to explore the bioeconomy potential of EU regions. The main question is how to close the gap between the current and future bioeconomy potential of EU regions. The elaborated conceptual systems analysis framework for the EU bioeconomy, as described in Report 1.4 of SAT-BBE, was introduced and used as base for explaining the working of the regional bioeconomy in the BERST project.
List of Websites:
SAT-BBE website: http://www3.lei.wur.nl/satbbe/default.aspx(opens in new window)
Hans van Meijl: project coordinator (email: Hans.vanMeijl@wur.nl)
Key findings
First, the scope of the bioeconomy systems analysis tools framework has been defined using the relatively broad and generic definition of the EC (2012). Though not explicitly mentioned it is essential that the bioeconomy moves from a linear to a (more) circular economy and values non-market ecosystem services, and at the same time contributes to competitive opportunities of the concerned biobased sectors through innovation and technical change.
Second, a conceptual system analyses framework for the bioeconomy has been developed based on a supply-demand framework that connects the building blocks (drivers, impacts, responses) for analysing impacts, trade-off and synergy effects that go along with a transition to a biobased economy). The SAT-BBE consortium identified and analysed the most important interactions and feedback effects between the bioeconomy and other parts of the economy (e.g. fossil and energy based industries), taking into account developments in system drivers (e.g. economic development, innovation and technical change) and constraints (e.g. land, water, non-renewable natural resources, labour). Impacts are measured in relation to the five societal challenges of the EC Bioeconomy Strategy. In next steps, policy and strategic management responses can be implemented in order to influence the demand and supply system drivers for meeting the targets of the Bioeconomy Strategy and other policies.
Third, a systems analysis toolkit has been designed using existing data and model approaches. There is the need to consider multiple scales and dimensions when monitoring the evolution and impacts of the bioeconomy. Tools are classified in General and Partial Equilibrium models (GE and PE), bottom up approaches and Integrated Assessment Models. Detailed description of these tools, in terms of their main applications, insights, and their strengths and limitations with respect to the assessment of biomass supply and its societal impacts. A number of operational models that are potentially suitable to monitor and evaluate the bioeconomy and its trade-offs. Existing models are currently extended to include more bioeconomy sectors (e.g. MAGNET and Globiom).
Fourth, it can be concluded that no ‘super model’ exists (nor should be designed) that covers all societal challenges and multi-dimensional relationships in the bioeconomy. Each model has its specific strengths and weaknesses, which means that models needs to be linked in an operational, transparent and systematic way to monitor the evolution and impacts of the bioeconomy and to investigate impacts and potential trade-off and synergy effects, tailored to the specific aim of the analysis or policy question. Linking of models through ‘loose coupling’, instead of integration of modules, is a suitable option to further operationalize the SAT-BBE framework and toolkit and provides the flexibility to include models based on specific needs of the assessment.
Fifth, For each of the five societal challenges of the EC Bioeconomy Strategy the required data and models, as well as the gaps in available and required data and models. In general it can be concluded that data, indicators and models are fairly well established for traditional sectors of the bioeconomy (agriculture, fishery, forestry, food, paper and pulp, textile), but less for the innovative sectors (e.g. bioenergy and biochemicals) and less for specific aspects, such as land use, employment, soil quality, etc..
Recommendations for further research
Research is required to test the applicability of the systems analysis tools framework and toolkit developed in SAT-BBE for various different research questions and policy assessments. Most importantly
• Gaps exist especially for ‘new’ and innovative sectors of the bioeconomy regarding the availability of socio-economic indicators such as cost structures, break-even prices, value added, employment, technological potential of economies of scale and technological learning effects.
• ‘Quality’ aspects of natural resources like land and water must be captured in environmental models in order to assess how ecosystems impacts could result from alternative pathways driving towards a biobased economy. Feedbacks between environmental and economic models needs to be strengthened.
• Existing models cover already many aspects of the bioeconomy and are strong in the field of agriculture, forestry, energy or economy wide coverage. New biobased sectors are currently built in but data are limited available and weak. To cover the entire bioeconomy there is a trend in equilibrium models that GE models are extended with new and more detailed sectors and PE models are used in combination with one other.
Project Context and Objectives:
Project context
One of the biggest challenges of the coming decades is the sustainable provision of food, water, energy and other ecosystem services to a world that will see its population increase by a third during the coming two decades. In 2012, the European Commission (EC) launched the new strategy on the Bioeconomy , which consists of a Bioeconomy Strategy and an Action Plan. The Bioeconomy Strategy aims at tackling the key five societal challenges:
1. ensuring food security;
2. managing natural resources sustainably;
3. reducing dependence on non-renewable resources;
4. mitigating and adapting to climate change; and
5. creating jobs and maintaining European competitiveness.
The focus of the Action Plan is on 1) investing in research, innovation and skills; 2) reinforcing policy interaction and stakeholder engagement; and 3) enhancing markets and competitiveness in the bioeconomy.
Given that the time needed to realise social and technological solutions is often considerable, a framework is needed to structure long-term analytical capacity for providing guidance for designing and implementing consistent, coherent, long-term strategies for the bioeconomy. Therefore, the EC launched the “Systems Analysis Tools Framework for the EU Bio-Based Economy Strategy” (SAT-BBE) project to design an analysis framework for monitoring the evolution and impacts of the bioeconomy. Second, the EC started a complementary project, which is the ’Bioeconomy Information System Observatory’ (BISO) project. The objective of BISO is to bring together the data, indicators and tools needed to monitor the progress, assess the impacts, and model future scenarios of the bioeconomy.
Project objectives
The objective of the SAT-BBE project was to design a systems analysis tools framework that can be used to monitor the evolution of the bioeconomy in the EU and also the socio-economic and environmental impacts of the bioeconomy and relevant policies.
The systems analysis tools framework needs to the ability to capture both the relevant policies and also other drivers of the bioeconomy and must be able to evaluate the impacts of the bioeconomy on the five societal challenges of the EC Bioeconomy Strategy.
The SAT-BBE project was carried out by a consortium of internationally recognized research institutes from the EU and the US. During the two and a half years project duration the SAT-BBE consortium designed a systems analysis tools framework, based on the broad experience available in the consortium with modelling socio-economic and environmental development and impacts. The SAT-BBE project consists of three phases shown in Figure 6.
Results
To achieve the above objectives the SAT-BBE project has provided a systematic overview of relevant data, indicators and modelling tools. From this overview a systems analysis tools framework and toolkit systems are compiled that can be used for both quantitative and qualitative analyses (e.g. foresight analyses) describing:
• the bioeconomy development in the European Union and its interactions between the rest of the economy;
• the impacts of bioeconomy development on main societal challenges such as food security, use and quality of environmental resources, and job creation and competitiveness.
The development of the systems analysis tools framework and toolkit contribute to a better conceptual understanding of the correlations and impacts and of the bioeconomy and potential synergy and trade-off effects. Future research priorities are formulated regarding gaps in data and modelling capacity. The systems analysis tools framework designed in the SAT-BBE project provides a solid basis for further operationalisation and application of models and tools for evaluating the development and impacts of the bioeconomy.
Project Results:
The findings and conclusions dedicated to the three phases in the SAT-BBE work programme, as presented in Figure 6, have been reported in written documents. Figure 7 gives links to the reports.
4.1.3.1 WP1 - Scoping and definition of the systems analysis framework
Objectives
• To structure the concepts to be used in a bioeconomy strategy, including both the place of sustainability within the bioeconomy, and the biobased sectors and its drivers (principally bio-technology) in relation to the rest of the economy.
• To elaborate the foundations (in the sense of appropriate data and indicators) for a systems analysis framework to evaluate and monitor the implementation of a bioeconomy strategy, in particular in relation to other EU policies where there are interdependencies.
• To communicate the conceptual structure of a systems analysis framework as can be applied to an EU bioeconomy strategy.
Description of results
Defining the EU bioeconomy. The EC formulated the following definition that was published in the ‘Communication on Innovating for Sustainable Growth: A Bioeconomy for Europe’ (EC, 29 February, 2012):
‘‘The bioeconomy encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and their conversion into food, feed, bio-based products and bioenergy. It includes agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food and pulp and paper production, as well as parts of chemical, biotechnological and energy industries. Its sectors have a strong innovation potential due to their use of a wide range of sciences (life sciences, agronomy, ecology, food science and social sciences), enabling and industrial technologies (biotechnology, nanotechnology, information and communication technologies (ICT), and engineering), and local and tacit knowledge.’
This definition of the bioeconomy is sufficiently generic to capture the broad scope and goal of the SAT-BBE project and to make sustainability and the societal challenges of the Bioeconomy Strategy an integral element of the systems analysis tools framework that needs to be developed in this project, including related concepts such as the circular economy and (non-market) ecosystem services (see further Report 1.1).
Although not explicitly mentioned in the definition it implicitly takes into account the concept of a circular flow of materials and feedbacks within the economy and the role of (non-market) ecosystem services.
Scoping the EU bioeconomy. The SAT-BBE systems analysis tools framework aimed to monitor, model and assess the evolution and impacts of the bioeconomy from different perspectives (see further SAT-BBE Report 1.2 and Report 1.3):
• multiple scales: comprising the analysis of specific products, the wide array of sectors and processes at the level of entire economies;
• local to global level impacts: considering that impacts manifest differently at different scales of analysis, and taking in particular care to distinguish between impacts within the EU and impacts abroad in a systemic way that avoids leakage effects, i.e. problem shifting from one sector or region to another;
• interlinkages between the economy, society and environment: in particular taking into account how changes in demand and production affect food security or natural ecosystems, and vice versa;
• possible futures in light of mega trends: including consideration of factors outside the scope of modelling, like population growth, and how such trends and factors affect possible bioeconomy development pathways;
• innovation: in particular taking into account technological change in production and manufacturing (such as genetically modified organisms and advanced bioenergy and biochemical production systems), but also considering social innovation and changed behaviours in the context of the bioeconomy, like reducing food waste, and distinguishing between incremental and radical changes;
• sustainability: considering how the bioeconomy and processes within the bioeconomy contribute to reaching sustainability targets, like the sustainable development goals, and also developing indicators and targets to benchmark sustainability in a quantifiable way at different levels of analysis. Important thereby are (potential) trade-off and synergy effects of different sustainability targets;
• policy relevant questions: keeping in mind the key research questions and political relevance, in particular to help maintain focus and avoid becoming lost in the complexity of the system.
Designing a conceptual framework of the bioeconomy. A conceptual framework of the bioeconomy has been designed that shows the correlations between the bioeconomy and the rest of the economy using the Driver-Impact-Response (DIR) framework for the bioeconomy (Figure 8). This framework consists of three main elements: drivers and pressures, impacts and mechanisms, and responses and other policy issues. The key drivers and pressures (inc. constraints) of the bioeconomy are:
1. demographics (e.g. population growth, education, human capital);
2. consumer preferences (consumer behaviour);
3. economic development (employment, competitiveness);
4. global environmental change;
5. resource availability (e.g. land, water, non-renewable natural resources)
The framework also shows the importance of considering supply-demand mechanisms, which are crucial for evaluating the impact of the bioeconomy on the societal challenges. Important thereby is the impact of agriculture and forestry, energy and trade policy and other strategic decisions. The framework ensures that these elements are discussed in a comprehensive and consistent manner so that all direct and indirect trade-off and synergy effects are considered
4.1.3.2 WP2 - Tools for evaluating and monitoring
Objectives
• To identify the data and indicators required for evaluating and monitoring the implementation of the EU bio-based economy strategy.
• To provide the knowledge references (in terms of data and indicators) both for the elaboration of the systems analysis tools framework in Phase 3 as well as for the work to complete the EU bio-based economy strategy in the future.
Description of results
Overview of data and indicators. First, an overview is compiled of datasets and indicators relevant when evaluating the evolution and impacts of the bioeconomy and especially the systems analysis framework (Report 2.1 and Report 2.2 respectively). Gaps in availability and quality of data and indicators are identified with respect to spatial (regional), temporal (times series) or thematic (sectoral, societal challenge) coverage. Gaps in data are especially relevant for innovative, new biobased sectors and specific issues (e.g. land use change, soil quality) and indicators. The availability and quality of social indicators is also an area of concern.
Overview of models and tools. Second, an overview of the modelling tools is made, whereby each model and tool is classified according to both the type, territorial scale, input data, output data and indicators and main application area (Table 3). Further, the strengths and weaknesses of different models and tools are confronted with linkages in the conceptual framework of the bioeconomy (Figure 4). Essential components of the systems analysis tools framework are economic models that consider supply and demand interactions and thereby also potential trade-off and synergy effects.
Global computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are especially suitable to evaluate economy-wide impacts of agriculture, energy and trade policies, including subsequent effects on GDP, employment, land-use change, GHG emissions etc. Key strengths are the comprehensive coverage of economic sectors and regions to account for inter-linkages and the explicit modelling of limited economic resources. Limitations are that the CGE models necessitates a simplified representation of agent choices, in particular favouring relatively simple and smooth mathematical forms which help to reduce the number of parameters required to calibrate the models.
Partial equilibrium (PE) models have a more detailed coverage of sectors and often explicitly show biophysical flows and absolute prices. PE models usually also have a high(er) level of detail with respect to regional aspects, policy measures and environmental indicators as well as a higher level of sectoral detail. Disadvantages are that the impacts and economy-wide linkages with other key sectors that are not represented are ignored and that macro-economic balances are thus not considered. The limited supply of key resources and inputs into productive activities within the economy (such as labour and capital) also tend to be ignored.
Bottom-up models deal with a wide variety of specific (often technical) aspects of biomass production, conversion and use. Bottom-up models are used to validate other studies with a broader scope, such as PE and CGE models and IAMs, and tend to be more process-based models with an engineering or biophysical focus.
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) integrate different relevant systems in one modelling framework. IAMs make it possible to analyse feedbacks between human and nature systems and also trade-offs and synergies of policy strategies. Disadvantages are the high complexity and the high level of aggregation (or other simplifications) necessary to maintain computational tractability.
The results of these deliverables have been summarised in Report 2.4. Although it is difficult to be accurate with the judgment of the data availability and quality, the SAT-BBE consortium members conclude that major gaps and uncertainties exist in the availability of data, indicators and partially also in modelling capacity (see also WP 3).
4.1.3.3 WP3 - Systems analysis protocols
Objectives
• To identify the appropriate analytical tools (in terms of operational effectiveness and efficiency) to be used for a systems analysis of the bio-based economy within the EU.
• To specify (and to develop, as is reasonable within this project) the possibility for linking tools through software development.
• To elaborate the interfaces with the analytical tools for non-specialists, as is deemed practical.
• To communicate the solution found for the design of the systems analysis tools framework
Description of results
An inventory of appropriate analytical tools useful for the systems analysis framework of the bioeconomy has been carried out and linkages between model components have been described (Report 3.1). The main entry points for linkages between models are prices or quantities that are crucial when evaluating supply demand interactions. Given the complexity of the global economy and biosphere and the inherent uncertainties when modelling these, it is unrealistic to expect that a total harmonization of models would be possible, since each component of the global economy or eco-sphere requires a certain degree of specialization in the models that are trying to capture it. Instead, software routines are required to link compatible models to provide for non-specialists with the means to interact with the quantitative tools used within the framework (user interfaces for specific applications or enquires).
Linking of models can be done via loose coupling or soft linking. Soft links imply that models are connected exogenously by transferring the outcomes of scenario model runs from one component or model to another and hard links mean that models exchange information and are solved iteratively, meaning that the solutions are internally consistent between models. A graphical user interface (GUI) is used as a ‘translation module’ among the various model types in the framework. This GUI is model independent, and can be linked to intermediate operation systems such as a scenario definition system, the scenario run manager and the scenario output processor (Figure 9).
Three types of user interfaces can be distinguished, namely 1) interfaces to get access to statistical databases; 2) interfaces that give access to individual models; 3) interfaces to make integrated model results accessible for policy analysts and other non-specialist users. The last two types are relevant in order to make the SAT framework operational for researchers from different disciplines, as well as end-users of the tools output such as policy makers or other (non-researcher) stakeholders (Report 3.2).
Next, the results of the previous work packages have been combined into a systemic framework for evaluating and monitoring the implementation of the EU bioeconomy strategy (Figure 10; Report 3.3). This systems analysis framework for the bioeconomy has been based on the conceptual systems analysis framework for the bioeconomy (Figure 8) and complies with the policy topics or societal challenges highlighted in the Bioeconomy Strategy.
Data, indicators and models are fairly well established for the traditional sectors of the bioeconomy (agriculture, fishery, forestry, food, paper and pulp, textile), but gaps exist for how ‘new’ and innovative sectors of the bioeconomy are captured (materials, chemistry, energy and specific aspects, such as land use, employment, soil quality, etc. Especially data on value added, employment, cost structures, breakeven points, technological potential for scale economies, and learning effects are missing for the new bioeconomy sectors.
Table 1 (see page 5, in section Executive Summary) gave an overview of the models and tools in the systems analyses tools framework and toolkit, by looking at the following issues:
- What are existing data and models that can monitor and evaluate the bioeconomy and its impacts? These are considered from different perspectives (economic, environmental, geographic, sector detail);
- What are the gaps in the availability of existing data and models? Which bioeconomy related aspects can already be analysed with current data and models, which cannot yet be addressed.
- What are options to close these gaps? What is needed for additional data collecting and how should provide these additional data.
Finally, there is an urgent need to develop (reference) scenarios that can describe the potential impacts of uncertainties (speed of technology change, biomass availability, oil and biomass prices) on the long-term development of the bioeconomy, taking account of driving factors (assumptions) and a smart set of environmental and socio-economic criteria and indicators. The systems analysis framework and toolkit developed in the SAT-BBE project can be helpful to develop such as baseline scenario, whereby an essential prerequisite is that gaps in data and modelling capacity are systematically closed.
4.1.3.4 WP4 - Communication and Dissemination
Objectives
• Involvement of peer expertise from outside of the consortium.
• Timely dissemination of project output with the public and interested parties.
• Effective communication about the project (its ambitions, participants and outputs) outside of the consortium, especially with the Commission.
Description of results
To raise awareness of SAT-BBE, the consortium has created a flyer to be distributed through all partners to any dissemination event they participate in). This SAT-BBE flyer is also accessible and downloadable through the SATT-BBE website. Secondly, disseminations social media channels Twitter and LinkedIn have been linked to the SAT-BBE home page website. The progress of SAT-BBE has been regularly sent out by means of these social media channels.
Moreover, the SAT-BBE project website (SAT-BBE website) and SAT-BBE logo have been designed. Identification with relevant and interested audiences (e.g. the BioObservatory platform) and aligned EC based bioeconomy research (e.g. BERST project) have been established. The dissemination has been updated regularly for events, news and publication series related to the SAT-BBE project, in order to keep up with developments in and outside the project. The external SAT-BBE website contains an internal partner portal, meant to store joint, internal dissemination material (like internal reports, decisions made at internal project meetings).
A plan of the dissemination of the project output with the public and interested parties has been launched (Report 4.1). It includes the communication about the ambitions, participants and outputs of the project outside the consortium, especially with the Commission.
Liaison activities in the context of the SAT-BBE project have been sought among projects and initiatives with similar objectives, methodologies deployed and tools designed regarding the development of the EU bioeconomy. Close cooperation have been established with platforms and projects. Main aims of such liaison activities were to search for complementary activities, as well as to create synergy effects across those similarly projects and platforms. Most reflected a similar goal, like closing the knowledge gap with regard to data and tools that are able to monitor and evaluate the development of the EU bioeconomy. During the SAT-BBE project period, liaison activities have been performed with the following relevant platforms and projects:
• BISO - Bioeconomy Observatory project, led by JRC-IPTS (March 2013-Feb 2016). The SAT-BBE coordinator, Hans van Meijl gave a presentation named ‘Systems Analysis Tools Framework for the BioEconomy’ (SAT-BBE presentation), with the objective to introduce the SAT-BBE project to the stakeholders participating in the First Stakeholders Round Table, organized for the Bioeconomy Observatory by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. It took place in Brussels on 26 November 2013. The presentation discussed the set-up of the SAT-BBE project and the project partners, introduced the stakeholders into the bioeconomy and its drivers, impacts and responses as defined within the SAT-BBE framework. Further, several examples were given of recent bioeconomy studies completed by the SAT-BBE teams, which illustrated the potential of relevant data and models for the assessments of bieconomies in various countries.
• SCAR-SBGB – Standing Committee on Agricultural Research- Strategic Work Group on Bioeconomy. This Work Group is advising the SCAR on opportunities and risks, research questions and actions needed in the new field of bioeconomy. Focus is on sustainability questions around the bioeconomy and strategic questions like the scope and playing field of the bioeconomy, the knowledge and innovation agenda. This is done in close cooperation with the Bioeconomy Observatory and the bioeconomy panel, but there are synergies with the SAT-BBE project as well. The coordinator of the SWG on bioeconomy invited the SAT-BBE team to participate in their stakeholder meeting of June 2014, and to give a presentation on SAT-BBE projects and its expected impacts. One of the objectives of this meeting was to search for possibilities to cooperate and to create synergies among both platforms.
• Within the SCOPE framework, the SAT-BBE coordinator Hans van Meijl from LEI Wageningen UR, joined an international Rapid Assessment Process (RAP) project, and led the production of a background chapter on Bioenergy Economics. With decreasing oil reserves, bioenergy’s provide a promising alternative. The paper has been published in March 2015, and also uses some relevant findings from the SAT-BBE project. The project is initiated by FAPESP, the State of São Paulo Research Foundation Research (Brazil), through its BIOEN, Global Climate Changes, and BIOTA Programmes. The implementation of policy for the replacement of fossil fuel by biofuels is a critical issue in many countries. Hans van Meijl also participated at the RAP workshop that was hold in Paris on 2-6 December 2013. More information about the Scope project can be found at: Scope - Bioenergy & Sustainability Project: Bridging the Gaps
• Several SAT-BBE partners participated in SCAR 4th Foresight expert workshops in Brussels aimed to explore potential future development paths of the bioeconomy. The meetings took place in November 2014 and February 2015. The 4th SCAR Foresight exercise explores the interactions between the primary sector and the bioeconomy. With an emphasis on the future, the exercise explores not only what will happen, but also what might happen by developing the paradigm of the bioeconomy, with the fundamental constraint of sustainability. Internal contradictions within sectors, and possible conflicts among sectors, are a major point of interest. The Foresight exercises proceeds in a participative way. For this purpose three interactive Brussels-based workshops have been organised with experts, members of the SCAR and its working groups, the European Commission and various stakeholders of the bioeconomy. These workshops in November 2014 and February 2015 explored and determine the key dilemmas governing the interactions between the primary sector and the bioeconomy and structuring the foresight work.
• BERST - Bioeconomy Regional Strategy Toolkit FP7 project, led by LEI Wageningen UR (Dec 2013-Nov 2015). The purpose of BERST is to explore the bioeconomy potential of EU regions. The main question is how to close the gap between the current and future bioeconomy potential of EU regions. The elaborated conceptual systems analysis framework for the EU bioeconomy, as described in Deliverable 1.4 of SAT-BBE, has been introduced and used as base for explaining the working of the regional bioeconomy system in the BERST project, in terms of criteria and indicators, and instruments and measures.
4.1.3.5 WP5 - Coordination and Project Management
Objectives
• Well-coordinated partner interaction.
• Timely delivery of quality output.
• Effective communication outside of the consortium, especially with the Commission.
Description of results
Project activities have been coordinated by the LEI Wageningen UR team. Examples of such activities were work package guidance, work programme progress monitoring (delivery of output on time at the desired level of quality), communication with partners and the European Commission, project reporting.
Project meetings have been organized. First, three external meetings were organised with participation of SAT-BBE consortium members, EC representatives and people from the Advisory Group. Second, three internal project meetings have been organized, to discuss the progress of the work packages. Finally, LEI Wageningen UR provided the consortium meeting minutes. Table 4 contains an overview of the meetings organised in the SAT-BBE project.
Potential Impact:
Scientific Results and impacts
The SAT-BBE project has made scientific contributions, and also wanted to build bridges to the policy community. The project provided the following scientific innovations:
• a review of the state-of-the art in systems analysis of the bioeconomy;
• the design of a systems analysis tools framework in itself is a methodological innovation; the consortium brought together a wide range of knowledge about the bioeconomy from the perspective of different regions and sectors.
These innovations have the purpose to affect and support the decision makers in the field of agricultural and trade policies, natural resource management, climate change and energy policies policy, and science and technology policies:
• to get a deeper understanding of the indicators and associated data requirements (and availability) that grasp the state of the bioeconomy and its future dynamics;
• to get a deeper understanding of the indicators and associated data requirements (and availability) that are able to measure the contribution of evolving bioeconomy sectors to sustainability goals of the EU and to those of the global community;
• to provide a conceptual analysis basis and decision platform for the assessment of policy measures linked to the EU Bioeconomy Strategy;
• to provide a conceptual basis for doing foresight and ex-ante analyses, that might help to identify future policy issues and help to improve the ability of decision makers to move towards a greener Common Agricultural Policy and a more responsible Common Fish Policy on the long term;
• to provide systems analysis for understanding and explaining observed impacts of policies.
The targeted audience are policy makers and other stakeholders in the EU facing the development of the bioeconomy. Dissemination work has been bundled into easy to read public papers (Report 1.4 Report 2.4 and Final report 3.3) for stakeholders, primarily oriented towards EU decision makers. The key findings and recommendations of SAT-BBE are:
• Data, indicator and model gaps exist for ‘new’ and innovative sectors of the bioeconomy (construction, chemistry, energy). With regard to the impact of the bioeconomy on food security there exist data gaps on household income and expenditure data, nutrition intake, own consumption and health data.
• Agricultural PE models make use of commodity balances. From the bioeconomy perspective, and in order to regard competition for different use of crops (waste), more detail in the commodity balance is required (food, feed, seed, and material use). As Eurostat is responsible for providing agricultural commodity balances (at EU country level), this disaggregation of the extended biomass use and supply options might be a task of Eurostat as well. Hopefully this work would also extend to the international FAOSTAT database which is needed for global consistency in modelling international trade b/w the EU and the rest of the world.
• One ’super model’ does not seem appropriate to tackle the multi-dimensional systemic relationships within the bioeconomy. Instead, a variety of models and model types should be compared, combined and deployed as a toolbox for monitoring the bioeconomy.
• There is a need to capture the impacts of the development of the bioeconomy on biodiversity and the non-provisioning, supporting, regulating and cultural ecosystem services, and thus on the state of natural capital. This requires a better integration of ‘quality’ aspects of natural resources like land and water in environmental models in order to assess how important ecosystem impacts could result from alternative pathways driving from a fossil-based towards a more biobased economy.
• Need to improve model collaboration and tools to better account for land resource availability as well as land use intensity and make optimal use of the available data and empirical evidence to make the assessments correspond more closely to reality.
• Need to determine the sustainable supply capacity of wastes and residues from a systemic perspective as well as to further understanding of how different possible development pathways of the European bioeconomy will impact natural ecosystems across the planet.
• Need to develop a baseline scenario that is able to describe the long-term development of the bioeconomy, taking account of driving factors (assumptions) and a smart set of environmental and socio-economic criteria and indicators.
Societal implications
The SAT-BBE team briefed the project’s main partners in the European Commission on the scientific progress in Brussels meetings on respectively 26 April 2013 (WP1), 13 March 2014 (WP2), and 23 March 2015 (WP3). Staff from DG AGRI, DG Growth, JRC-IPTS, DG ENERGY and DG Research & Innovation participated. The main conclusion of the meetings was that policy makers need insight in the availability of different tools to measure impacts of and to monitor the development of the bioeconomy. In view of the EC intention to establish a European bioeconomy strategy, the design of a systems analysis tools framework should provide the technical support for such a strategy, and must enable the EU to evaluate the impacts of its strategy as well as to monitor the trajectory of its evolution.
The SAT-BBE project has indicated what the gaps are between requirements and availability of data and modelling tools. Relevant questions included: What are the pros and cons of these tools? For which bioeconomy research questions could tools be applied and for which questions is that not yet possible? In this way, the SAT-BBE project supports the Commission with targeting its research and development agenda, and assesses whether or not specific data and tools need new or further development. Such targeting actions are essential to ensure that the current and future analyses and monitorings are captured in sufficient and efficient ways.
Liaison activities in the context of the SAT-BBE project have been arranged among projects and initiatives with similar objectives, methodologies deployed and tools designed regarding the development of the EU bioeconomy. Similar goals referred to closing the knowledge gap with regard to data and tools that are able to monitor and evaluate the development of the EU bioeconomy. Following liaison activities have been performed (see more in section 4.1.3.4):
• BISO - Bioeconomy Observatory project, led by JRC-IPTS (March 2013-Feb 2016). The SAT-BBE coordinator, Hans van Meijl gave a presentation named ‘Systems Analysis Tools Framework for the BioEconomy’ (SAT-BBE presentation), with the objective to introduce the SAT-BBE project to the stakeholders participating in the First Stakeholders Round Table, organized for the Bioeconomy Observatory by EC-JRC.
• SCAR-SBGB – Standing Committee on Agricultural Research- Strategic Work Group on Bioeconomy. This Work Group is advising the SCAR on opportunities and risks, research questions and actions needed in the new field of bioeconomy. This was done in close cooperation with the Bioeconomy Observatory and the bioeconomy panel, but there were synergies with the SAT-BBE project as well.
• Within the SCOPE framework, the SAT-BBE coordinator Hans van Meijl from LEI Wageningen UR, joined an international Rapid Assessment Process (RAP) project, and led the production of a background chapter on Bioenergy Economics. More information: Scope - Bioenergy & Sustainability Project: Bridging the Gaps.
• Several SAT-BBE partners participated in SCAR 4th Foresight expert workshops in Brussels aimed to explore potential future development paths of the bioeconomy. The meetings took place in Nov 2014 and Feb 2015. The 4th SCAR Foresight exercise explores the interactions between the primary sector and the bioeconomy.
• BERST - Bioeconomy Regional Strategy Toolkit FP7 project, led by LEI Wageningen UR (Dec 2013-Nov 2015). The purpose of BERST is to explore the bioeconomy potential of EU regions. The main question is how to close the gap between the current and future bioeconomy potential of EU regions. The elaborated conceptual systems analysis framework for the EU bioeconomy, as described in Report 1.4 of SAT-BBE, was introduced and used as base for explaining the working of the regional bioeconomy in the BERST project.
List of Websites:
SAT-BBE website: http://www3.lei.wur.nl/satbbe/default.aspx(opens in new window)
Hans van Meijl: project coordinator (email: Hans.vanMeijl@wur.nl)
