Final Report Summary - ATLANTIC FUTURE (Towards an Atlantic area? Mapping trends, perspectives and interregional dynamics between Europe, Africa and the Americas)
Executive Summary:
The ATLANTIC FUTURE project was developed in a setting of profound transformation in the global arena, with the redistribution of power the main trend in international relations. Redistribution refers, first of all, to a shift of power among state actors. In particular, there has been a shift toward Asia, with growth in Asia and the Pacific Rim in part due to the economic, financial and political crisis that has hit the West in the last years. Furthermore, the dynamic of a shift from North to South can also be seen in the rise of developing economies such as Brazil and South Africa, which play an important role in the context of the project.
In this global setting, and in spite of the rise of the Asia-Pacific region, the Atlantic remains one of the most dynamic regions in the world. On the one hand, the North America-Europe link continues to be the strongest and largest of the transcontinental relations. On the other, although still suffering from profound asymmetry, North-South relations between the US and Latin America and Europe and Africa are changing, with both Latin America and Africa increasing their interregional links and gaining weight in global affairs. This redistribution of power also implies a shift from state actors to non-state actors, such as regions, transnational corporations, large cities, language communities and diasporas.
In this context of change, and at a time of deepening interdependence, global challenges such as the economic crisis, climate change, poverty, the refugee crisis, regional conflicts, energy and food security are becoming more pressing than ever. These global challenges require global solutions, but the multilateral frameworks in place do not seem to be effective. In the Atlantic, global challenges present opportunities as well as obstacles. Thus, positive factors, such as the potential for better management of shared resources, and negative ones, like the illegal flow of narcotics that harms the whole region, emerge as potential drivers for cooperation, competition or conflict.
The context described above has evolved since the project began, and analysis of current events has been integrated at all stages. Growth rates in the Atlantic are higher now that the worse part of the economic crisis seems to be over. The Europe-US link is gaining importance once again as a result of the negotiation of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Relations with Russia, the situation in Ukraine and the impact of regional conflicts in the Middle East are once again putting the focus on the Atlantic Space. Beyond this, the strong emergence of non-state actors requires institutions and governments to rethink their approaches to the current challenges and presents opportunities for strengthening the wider transatlantic relations.
Objectives. The main objective of ATLANTIC FUTURE was to analyse the fundamental trends in the Atlantic and show how changing links in key areas such as economy and finance, security, cultural, social and political relations, and resources and the environment are transforming the wider Atlantic Space. Research mapped the interconnections between those areas across the Atlantic. It also tracked the evolution of region-to-region relations between Africa, the Americas and Europe and took in a variety of perspectives from all the Atlantic regions and powers. Furthermore, the project identified opportunities for and obstacles to stronger cooperation, both on issues limited to the Atlantic and on global challenges. It included a prospective exercise in which future scenarios were projected for the Atlantic Space in 2025. Finally, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project reviewed the European Union’s interregional links with the other continents with direct access to the Atlantic and aimed to produce policy recommendations for the European Union’s Atlantic agenda.
Some of these objectives were responses to scientific targets, others to policy-oriented goals and still others were oriented to strengthening transregional epistemic communities. They can be summarised in the following five points:
-Understanding the Atlantic: the project aimed to achieve a better understanding of the Atlantic as a political space undergoing fundamental changes relating to the restructuring of the international system.
-Mapping change: through the compilation of datasets and visualisations in the form of the Atlas of the Atlantic, the project aimed to capture the empirical evidence of change and continuities in the Atlantic on a large number of issues.
-Collecting perspectives: the project aimed to examine the perceptions of a plurality of stakeholders on the Atlantic from all four continents, which also contributed to strengthening the possible creation of an epistemic community across the region.
-Analysing region-to-region relations: the project aimed to identify the opportunities, challenges and risks around improving cooperation and transforming multilateral and regional institutions.
-Projecting trends: the project aimed to outline possible future scenarios by examining the evolution of current and emerging trends and projecting them into the future.
-Identifying opportunities: the project assessed the potential implications of emerging trends in the Atlantic for EU foreign policy and provided policy recommendations to the EU on how to engage with partners in the Atlantic.
Project Context and Objectives:
Work carried out since the beginning of the project:
The ATLANTIC FUTURE project officially started on the 1st of January 2013 and finished on the 31st of December 2015. The work done during the project can be summarised as follows: conceptual work was carried out to establish the framework of the research (WP1); datasets were compiled with data on the thematic areas (economic, security, political, social, resources and environmental transformations) and scientific papers were written on each (WP2 to WP5); an Atlas of the Atlantic (WP6) was designed; perspectives from stakeholders in the Atlantic region were gathered (WP7); and interregional relations around the Atlantic were studied (WP8). Additionally, the project identified and analysed the principal actors and factors that are shaping the evolution of the Atlantic and provided three possible scenarios for the Atlantic with a 2025 horizon (WP9). Using all the main findings mentioned above, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project assessed the impact of emerging trends in the wider Atlantic on the European Union and provided policy recommendations on how the European Union should engage with its partners in the Atlantic Space (WP10).
Finally, multiple activities were carried out as part of the dissemination and outreach efforts of the project (WP11). Project meetings were held in Barcelona, Spain (March 2013), Rabat, Morocco (October 2013), Mexico City, Mexico (February 2014), Pretoria, South Africa (June 2014), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (October 2014) and Lisbon, Portugal (April 2015). Besides this, the project presented its main findings at multiple events and external conferences in: Porto, Portugal (January 2015), New Orleans, USA (February 2015), Catania, Italy (September 2015), Hamburg, Germany (February 2015), Boston, USA (March 2015), Vigo, Spain (September 2015), Cancun, Mexico (October 2015), Rabat, Morocco (October 2015), Marrakesh, Morocco (November 2015), Washington D.C. USA (December 2015) and Brussels, Belgium (February 2014 and December 2015).
Main results of the project:
The framework of the research (WP1). During the first months of the project, the research was devoted to a necessary contextualisation of the Atlantic. This was done in two ways. On the one hand, preliminary papers were presented and discussed at the project seminar in Rabat, Morocco (October 2013) on a variety of aspects such as: historical context; a preliminary conceptualisation of the Atlantic; institutional frameworks; the identification of global challenges; and the use of interpolarity as a way to define the emerging system. After this initial phase, the Work Package was put on hold and restarted during the second period of the project, in which the theorisation of the Atlantic Space was supported by the empirical and qualitative data gathered throughout the project. Specifically, the project produced the following for Work Package 1:
- A concept paper that included the geographical and temporal scope of the research, as well as the criteria for identifying relevant topics and indicators on the key areas for obtaining empirical evidence for mapping the transformation in the Atlantic (deliverable 1.1).
- A concept paper that identified the implications of the main findings of Work Packages 2-5 for EU foreign policy (deliverable 1.2).
- Historical datasets on changes in the Atlantic Space (deliverable 1.3) that gathered information about human flows and demography, economy, energy, transport and environment and political change in a time-space that ideally covered the last 200 years of Atlantic history. The consortium envisioned three main purposes of this exercise: a) to provide quantitative evidence for the scientific papers of the project (in particular those focusing on historical change and patterns); b) to support the exercise of data visualisation of those topics that revealed unexpected patterns and trends taking place in the Atlantic; c) provide the empirical evidence to illustrate the monograph of the project (deliverable 1.5); d) to detect the main historical narratives essential to our research and that later became part of the interactive Atlas of the Atlantic (deliverable 6.1).
- As a result of the conceptualisation work carried out under WP1, six scientific papers were written (deliverable 1.4):
▪ Scientific paper no. 27: “Historical Power Relations and changes in the Atlantic: a two centuries overview”
▪ Scientific paper no. 28: “Atlantic Multilateralism and Prospects for Pan-Atlantic Institutions: an Historical Perspective”
▪ Scientific paper no. 29: “Reviving pan-Atlantic interdependencies – A laboratory for global governance”
▪ Scientific paper no. 30: “The Atlantic Basin: An eclectic but converging region?”
▪ Scientific paper no. 31: “An emerging and globalised Atlantic Space?”
▪ Scientific paper no. 32: “Regional environmental challenges and solutions in the Pan-Atlantic Space”
- The monograph “Atlantic Future: Shaping a New Hemisphere for the 21st century: Africa, Europe and the Americas” is a compendium of all the main findings of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project (deliverable 1.5). The introduction explains the main objectives and research questions that guided the development of the project. Its subsequent chapters explain: 1) the Atlantic from a historical perspective; 2) the trends that are shaping the Atlantic in the economic, security, political, social, cultural, resources and environmental areas; 3) power shifts and interdependence; 4) regional and interregional relations; 5) the perceptions that the Atlantic has of itself; and 6) the possible scenarios that will shape the Atlantic in the next ten years.
Thematic areas (WP2–WP5). A great deal of time and resources during the first period of the project were devoted to gathering empirical evidence, which has a three-fold objective: to build the datasets on each of the thematic areas, to support the scientific papers, and to build the Atlas of the Atlantic in the second period of the project. The project designed standardised procedures for the building of the datasets. The data was collected to identify trends and patterns of continuity and change in the Atlantic Space, with the aim of mapping the transformation of the region.
Based on the empirical evidence collected as well as other sources and further analysis, nineteen scientific papers on the four key thematic areas of the project were delivered during the first period of the project:
•On Economy and Finance: (1) Continuities and changes in patterns of direct investment flows between South America and Africa; (2) Commercial Ties in the Atlantic Basin: The Evolving Role of Services and Investment; (3) Multilateral Agreements and Global Governance of International Trade Regimes; (4) Global Value Chains in the Atlantic Space; (5) Technology, Trade and Changes in Transport in the Atlantic Space.
•On Security: (6) The Atlantic as a new security area? Current engagements and prospects for security cooperation between Africa and its Atlantic counterparts; (7) Maritime Territorial Delimitation and Maritime Security in the Atlantic; (8) Significant Trends in Illicit Trafficking: A Macro View of the Problem and Potential Means to Address It; (9) Fragile States: Challenges and Opportunities for Atlantic Relations.
•On People and Institutions: (10) Convergence or Divergence of Ideas, Norms, and Principles in the Atlantic? The Case of Transnational Environmental Networks; (11) Development in the Atlantic: Between cooperation and competition; (12) Atlantic countries’ voting patterns on human rights and human security at the United Nations: the cases of Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti, Iran and Syria; (13) Geometries of Human Mobility in the Atlantic Space; (14) The community of Portuguese Language Speaking Countries: The role of language in a globalizing world.
•On Resources and the Environment: (15) Marine resource management and coastal livelihoods: an Atlantic perspective; (16) Climate change impacts in the Atlantic Basin and coordinated adaptation responses; (17) Atlantic Energy and the Changing Global Energy Flow Map; (18) Sustainable Policy Perceptions in the Atlantic Basin. Green Policy Index; (19) Food security and agriculture issues in the Atlantic Basin.
The Atlas of the Atlantic (WP6). During the second period, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project created the Atlas of the Atlantic, an interactive online tool that draws on over 100 datasets collected during the first period of the project. This atlas was designed to offer new visual maps of the linkages connecting the peoples of North and South America, Europe and Africa, on issues such as migration, energy, goods, services, ideas, money, drugs and other themes (deliverable 6.1). The Atlas of the Atlantic is also useful to compare the dynamics of the Atlantic hemisphere with those of the Asian hemisphere. The Atlas of the Atlantic is available at http://www.atlasoftheatlantic.eu
A report on “Changing intra-Atlantic interdependencies: Implications for the EU and its major partners” was written (deliverable 6.2) based on the empirical evidence provided in the thematic Work Packages (WP2-WP5) and the visualisations produced in the Atlas of the Atlantic. This report identifies the primary connections across the Atlantic, their evolution and their implications for the EU and its major partners.
Perspectives from the Atlantic (WP7). During the second period of the project, ATLANTIC FUTURE performed 488 interviews in 25 countries in Africa, Europe and North, South and Central America: Angola, Argentina, Cameroon, Canada, Cape Verde, Colombia, Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, Ghana, Honduras, Italy, Mexico, Morocco, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Poland, Portugal, Senegal, Spain, South Africa, the United States, the United Kingdom and Venezuela. Besides these, interviews were also made in three cities that host the headquarters of international organisations: Geneva, Washington D.C. and New York.
As a result of the fieldwork a cluster of 7 interview reports on regional perspectives were delivered and uploaded to the project’s website (www.atlanticfuture.eu):
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Mexico, Colombia and Honduras
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Canada and the United States
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Cameroon, South Africa and West Africa
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Angola
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Morocco
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Cape Verde.
An interview report on the perspectives from the European Union countries and international organisations was delivered and uploaded to the project’s website:
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Germany
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from the Netherlands
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from the UK
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from Belgium
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from France
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from Poland
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from Portugal
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from Spain
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from Italy
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from International Organisations in Geneva
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from International Organisations in New York and Washington DC.
Finally, scientific paper no. 37 “The Atlantic within the Atlantic” presented a comparative analysis of the interviews carried out in the 25 countries of the Atlantic Space and the three cities that are hubs of international organisations (Geneva in Switzerland and New York and Washington D.C. in the USA).
The main conclusions of the work carried out under WP7 include the following:
- The Atlantic’s shared values, forged on a common heritage could distinguish the region. Nevertheless, the project discovered how the ways of acting upon these common values have continuously diverged due to the varying levels of development and consequent needs of each particular country. To the point that countries from the South Atlantic have felt more inclined to identify themselves with countries from Asia with which they share the same needs and problematics than with countries from the North Atlantic.
- From the interviews, it also became clear that, given the global nature of the challenges we are facing nowadays, the Atlantic Space has the opportunity to align its common interests and boost collaborative relations. The main obstacle to cementing this vision comes from internal and external factors that have reinforced protectionist views and inward-looking foreign policies that feed the traditional approach of a powerful North Atlantic dictating the rules to a dependent South.
- Based on the interviewees’ responses, the idea of a possible emergence of an Atlantic Space seems still to be far from the Atlantic imaginary. However, the perception of challenges and the recognition of areas of mutual interest also confirmed that certain trends are taking place in the Atlantic, and new narratives are emerging.
Understanding regional and interregional relations (WP8). During the second period of the project, ATLANTIC FUTURE studied regionalism and interregional relations across the Atlantic. An analysis of these types of relations was carried out in the framework of a distinctive new Atlantic Space for international relations. The primary strength and contribution of this study was its comprehensive insight into the overlapping linkages of interregionalism in the wider Atlantic Space. Additionally, Work Package 8 addressed the question of relevance: is interregionalism important because it brings about something new that really matters or is it simply a (perhaps unavoidable) by-product of regionalism?
With the aim of having substantial impact on the scientific study of interregionalism and on its political meaning, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project produced eight scientific papers on regionalism and interregionalism. These papers may be found on the ATLANTIC FUTURE website (http://www.atlanticfuture.eu):
▪ Scientific paper no. 20: “Regionalism and Interregionalism in Latin America: The Beginning or the End of Latin America’s ‘Continental Integration?’”
▪ Scientific paper no. 21: “Interregional Relations between North America and Africa”
▪ Scientific paper no. 22: “Regional and Interregional Interactions in Europe, North America and across the North Atlantic”
▪ Scientific paper no. 23: “Regionalism and Interregionalism: The case of Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa”
▪ Scientific paper no. 24: “EU-Latin America and Caribbean Inter-regional relations: complexity and change”
▪ Scientific paper no. 25: “Actors and opportunities: Interregional Processes in the Arab Region and Latin America and the Caribbean”
▪ Scientific paper no. 26: “Sub-Saharan Africa and the EU”.
These papers provided state-of-the-art, innovative analysis of regionalism and interregionalism, comparing various regional and interregional processes and taking the often neglected South-South dimension, as well as the role of non-state actors, seriously. This included engaging with the issue of agency in interregional relations, arguing that interregional processes and agendas are always driven and constructed by certain actors for certain purposes. Therefore, by having a more comprehensive and holistic approach to the study of interregionalism, these papers aimed to contribute to theory-building in the field.
Furthermore, an overarching conceptual paper was written with the aim of discussing the current literature on interregionalism, comparing case studies, discussing trends and improving theoretical instruments for studying interregionalism:
▪ Scientific paper no. 38: “Debunking Interregionalism: Concepts, Types and Critique – With a Transatlantic Focus”.
Finally, an edited volume, composed of shortened and reframed versions of the papers and accompanied by an introductory chapter by the coordinators will be published by Springer International Publishing and will be available at: http://link.springer.com/bookseries/7716. CIDOB will inform the European Commission when the volume is available.
Some of the findings, which contributed to answering the research questions of this Work Package, can be summarised as follows:
-Most projects to form regions across national borders (i.e. regionalisms) in the Atlantic Space have evolved within continental boundaries. Territorial contingency and proximity have determined the shape of most projects, and only a few organisations, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), have cut across the Atlantic Ocean. Thus, different types and logics of region-building have emerged within Africa (Pan-Africanism), Latin America (accumulation of alliances), North America (trade-focused minimalist institutionalisation) and Europe (sophisticated institutionalisation and actorness abroad).
-While there was a sense of synchrony and adherence to liberalism in the Atlantic Space around the beginning of a new wave of regionalism after the Cold War, the subsequent evolution of the various projects has been characterised by fragmentation. Latin America and the Arab world have become arenas of contesting regionalisms and aspiring regional leaders. Africa is still in a process of reconfiguration with several sub-regions that are constantly changing shape and outlook. By contrast, Europe and the North Atlantic have dominant, consolidated and expanding regionalisms.
-The main sources of ideas to effectively define the boundaries of a region in the Atlantic Space have often been based on identity foundations. The influence of “pan-” movements is still relevant in contemporary regionalisms in Africa and Latin America, while the legal identity of the acquis communautaire has provided the foundation for the EU.
-The major division of regionalism in the Atlantic Space remains along the North-South axis. Several projects to bridge this gap, such as the FTAA or the Union for the Mediterranean have failed to generate integrative momentum. By contrast, the emergence of regional powers such as Brazil, South Africa and Nigeria is closely interwoven with their membership of regional projects. Regionalisms such as Mercosur, UNASUR, SADC, ECOWAS and the AU have been instrumental to these countries’ leadership and their global visibility.
-The EU has been perceived as the world’s most advanced regional integration project, and indeed it sees itself as a governance model for other countries and regions in the world. Currently, however, a number of factors and challenges, both within the EU and in the other regions, are affecting its capacity to inspire and promote its ideas, values and practices. Atlantic geopolitics is currently dominated by pluralism rather than unity. Emerging economies and groups of states in the South Atlantic are developing strategies that challenge the traditional Western powers and new regional and interregional initiatives of varied nature and composition proliferate.
-The institutionalised forms of regional and interregional projects may have limitations, but the experiences in the Atlantic Space provide case studies that mean it can be considered a laboratory of multilateralism at global level. Firstly, positive integration factors such as identity, ideology, transfers and entanglement have provided a more durable basis for region-building than external actors, be they funders or perceived opponents. Secondly, regions are constantly in flux, expanding or contracting, both in their membership and in their objectives. Geographical boundaries increasingly succumb to political, economic or social ideas of desired cohesion. Thirdly, interregionalism often tends to be highly asymmetrical due the high variety of regional institutionalisation, actorness and outreach. As a consequence, the linkages tend to be driven unilaterally and can produce structures of dependence and mimicry.
Projecting trends (WP9). During the second part of the project, ATLANTIC FUTURE identified the key actors and factors shaping and structuring the wider Atlantic Space. The project also analysed the main drivers of change, the interactions between the selected actors and factors and provided three future scenarios for the Atlantic. Concretely, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project produced the following papers that can be found on the ATLANTIC FUTURE website (http://www.atlanticfuture.eu):
-Four scientific papers outlining key factors and actors or the future development of the Atlantic Space:
▪ Scientific paper no. 33: “The Future Pan-Atlantic Economy”
▪ Scientific paper no. 34: “Addressing the Atlantic’s Emerging Security Challenges”
▪ Scientific paper no. 35: “Political, social and cultural trends in the Atlantic”
▪ Scientific paper no. 36: “Patterns of Production and Consumption in the Atlantic Space and Future Environment and Resource Scenarios”.
-A policy report and a scientific paper on scenarios:
▪ Policy report no. 1: “Charting the future of the Atlantic”
▪ Scientific paper no. 39: “Atlantic Scenarios 2025”.
The main conclusions of the work carried out under WP9 include the following:
-Economic connections will further deepen within the Atlantic Space and the US and the EU will continue to play a central role there, even as Asia and China in particular become increasingly important players. The dynamic interaction between trade and investment will continue to distinguish the Atlantic economy. Trade in services has intensified and is set to expand rapidly, to the benefit of Atlantic economies.
- A new industrial revolution is emerging in the Atlantic Space, driven by the US in particular and powered by the development of the digital economy and innovation at large. This will create new growth opportunities and may also enable countries from the South Atlantic to connect to the US and European value chains and modernise their economies.
-Traditional and emerging powers in the Atlantic Space are seeking to diversify their portfolio of political and economic partners. Interregional partnerships and frameworks are increasingly complementing those based on continental cooperation. A number of preferential trade agreements have been concluded and more are likely to come. If finalised, the TTIP will likely reinforce cooperation among its members while imposing competitive pressures on non-members, unless mechanisms are devised to engage South Atlantic partners.
-Demographic trends will play an important role in shaping the future of the Atlantic Space, with Africa’s population expanding fast while Europe’s population ages. Africa’s capacity to absorb the youth bulge will be an important factor for its stability and prosperity.
-The size of the middle class is expected to stall or shrink in the North Atlantic and to grow in the South Atlantic, notably in Latin America. This will have economic and political implications in all Atlantic regions. Demand for better governance may grow in the South Atlantic, alongside a widening consumer market. Politics may become more polarised in Europe and the US in the face of challenges to living standards and the question of migration. Rising and/or large inequalities pose a problem across the Atlantic Space.
-Democratic political values are broadly shared within the Atlantic. However, normative differences between the North and South Atlantic have proved resilient and are unlikely to fade in the short term, which will likely delimit (but not exclude) cooperation on issues of political reform, peace and security. In a range of fields, from energy and climate change to development and dealing with transnational threats, cooperation in the Atlantic Space is likely to make incremental progress and take place à la carte.
-Classic geopolitical competition is very unlikely to emerge among Atlantic powers. Piracy, the convergence between trafficking, organised crime and terrorism, and the vulnerability of critical energy infrastructure are among the main security challenges facing the Atlantic Space. Many of these challenges converge in West Africa/Sahel but affect the interests and security of countries in the Atlantic Space at large. Various cooperative initiatives have been undertaken to deal with these threats but a pan-Atlantic approach is lacking and there is a need for a platform involving Europe, Africa and the Americas to discuss and tackle shared challenges.
-Three energy revolutions are unfolding in the Atlantic, namely the shale revolution in North America, the offshore one in the South Atlantic and the low carbon revolution. All have the potential to redefine the energy landscape in the Atlantic and beyond over the long term, even if their prospects will depend on a range of factors such as the evolution of oil prices. The cost of low carbon technologies is falling and in the next decade much of the additional power generation capacity in the Atlantic is expected to come from renewables. The countries of the South Atlantic will make important choices concerning their energy mix in the coming years, which will present challenges and opportunities to delink growth from rising emissions. Cooperation between countries in the Atlantic can help make a difference to those choices and steer economic growth on an environmentally sustainable path. On top of this, important areas for future environmental cooperation in the Atlantic Space include food security, overfishing and countering wildlife trafficking and biodiversity loss.
Implications of the trends taking place in the wider Atlantic for European Union foreign policy (WP10). ATLANTIC FUTURE analysed the main findings of the whole project with the aim of: 1) identifying the impact that the Atlantic trends have on European Union foreign policy; and 2) providing policy recommendations on how the European Union should engage with its partners in the wider Atlantic area. As a result of this analysis, several papers were produced:
-Three policy papers on the implications of the findings in the Atlantic Space for US-EU, Africa-EU and LAC-EU relations (these may be found on the ATLANTIC FUTURE website: http://www.atlanticfuture.eu/):
▪ Policy paper no. 01: “A Pan-Atlantic Agenda for EU-US Relations”
▪ Policy paper no. 02: “EU-LAC relations against the background of Atlantic trends and scenarios”
▪ Policy paper no. 03: “The Relations between the European Union and Africa”.
-One policy report on the EU and the Atlantic, containing a list of policy recommendations. This paper may be found on the ATLANTIC FUTURE website: http://www.atlanticfuture.eu/):
▪ Policy report no. 02: “Elements for an EU’s pan-Atlantic agenda: building an Atlantic community”.
The main findings, which contributed to answering the research questions of this Work Package and informed the policy recommendations, are the following:
-Growing connections across the wider Atlantic should prompt the EU and the US to incorporate issues of pan-Atlantic import into their traditional bilateral agenda. First, the partners must strengthen their own core relationship across the North Atlantic, particularly through trade and energy initiatives. Second, the partners should redefine the “Atlantic Community” to engage countries and societies across the whole Atlantic Space in promoting economic growth, human development and energy links, enhance human security and resilience, and address issues pertaining to the Atlantic Ocean itself. Third, the EU and the US must also engage the “Asian hemisphere” countries on “Atlantic hemisphere” issues as Asia pivots to the Atlantic.
-Within the framework of a wider Atlantic Space, Atlantic Africa represents a difficult and conflicted region characterised by a confluence of strategic interests deriving from its natural resources (tropical wood, gas, oil, uranium, fish, etc.) and its geographical location on one of the world’s busiest seaways. Yet, because of multiple security threats that weigh on its internal dynamics, the region appears particularly vulnerable and politically unstable. Aside from the security context, the countries’ uneven economic performance has contributed to destabilising trends in the region as well. As a global actor wishing to ensure both its own security and international stability, the EU is particularly well equipped to intervene effectively in the region. However, the EU’s approach has for years lacked an overall strategy for its engagements in the region, instead being largely empirical and pragmatic in nature.
-A dense network of EU-LAC cooperation contrasts with a lack of strategic visions and the concentration of an all-inclusive agenda. Against the background of Atlantic trends, it is crucial to find a critical balance of EU-LAC cooperation on regionalism and interregionalism, socioeconomic development, security, migration and climate change. The identification of challenges in each sector served to formulate a series of policy recommendations for further progress on relations and the creation of synergies with the Ibero-American and Inter-American systems, particularly on migration and public security.
-The Atlantic Space – comprising the four regions around the Atlantic Ocean, namely North America, Central and South America and the Caribbean, Europe and Africa – is not a region defined by natural borders. Nevertheless, it can be conceptualised as a large geo-strategic space that is characterised by common features and challenges, from which it is possible to derive a number of linked-up dynamics and emerging trends. The Atlantic Space is particularly relevant for the EU and can be regarded both as an arena for its international projection and a test bed for its global governance agenda, particularly in regard to the adoption of the EU Global Strategy.
-The Atlantic Space offers an opportunity for greater collaboration between state and non-state actors (from within and outside the Atlantic Space). The EU, as one of the key actors in this space, should contribute by promoting rules and practices through innovative and inclusive approaches. That said, many of the emerging trends presented in this project are global in nature and these EU objectives should be framed within a global strategy.
-In the economic and trade area, the strategic objectives of the EU are equality, development and free trade. Fighting inequality is among the priorities for the EU because of its implications for social cohesion, economic efficiency and political stability. New models of development cooperation are necessary to foster greater prosperity, in light of the increasing role of actors from the South in the Atlantic Space and at global level. Free trade should be an inclusive process and the EU should play an important role in supporting multi-level agreements in the Atlantic aimed at creating new space for free trade without generating insurmountable North-South divisions.
-On security, the main shared challenges in the Atlantic are illicit trafficking, piracy – with particular attention on the Gulf of Guinea – and the protection of critical energy infrastructure.
-In the area of energy and the environment, addressing climate change through carbon emissions reductions, more intensive use of renewables and environmental protection is an absolute priority and global consensus on it is growing. At the same time, sustainable agricultural production and consumption and sustainable fishing are issues to be targeted with an Atlantic dimension.
-Concerning peoples and institutions, social resilience in the Atlantic should be promoted through two main actions: supporting institution-building anchored to human rights and democratic participation, and involving non-state actors in the elaboration of inclusive common agendas in the Atlantic Space.
-The dynamics of fragmentation that have emerged in the Atlantic Space seem to replicate a more general trend in the international community. A more effective system of governance needs to cope with contested rules and structures, which prevent consensus building on many issues in the global agenda. The North-South divide is still a defining feature in power relations among actors at global level and has proved to be one of the shaping factors in intra-Atlantic relations. Building on its commitment to promote effective multilateralism and the experience gained at the United Nations and in other multilateral fora, the EU should devise forward-looking strategies to better engage southern Atlantic countries with a view to endorsing the principles, rules and procedures established in the multilateral institutions.
-EU initiatives could be designed to address specific issues such as implementation and monitoring mechanisms on climate change in the post-COP 21 agreement context and development cooperation in the framework of the 2030 Agenda, or it could focus on coalition building and the reform of global governance, primarily the international financial institutions and the United Nations system. The diplomatic resources of the European External Action Service could be mobilised both in multilateral endeavours and in national capitals to achieve this objective.
Dissemination and outreach (WP11). The ATLANTIC FUTURE project produced several materials that were aimed at the dissemination and outreach of the project:
-A communication and outreach plan was created to highlight the main strategies and tools for the dissemination of the project (deliverable 11.2).
-Two businesses briefs on trade and resources and the environment were produced by the leaders of Work Package 2 (Economy) and Work Package 5 (Resources and the Environment) (deliverable 11.7). These may be found on the ATLANTIC FUTURE website www.atlanticfuture.eu :
▪ Business Brief no.1 “Economic and financial links in the Atlantic Space”
▪ Business Brief no. 2 “Outlook for the Fossil Fuel and renewable energy industries in the Wider Atlantic Space”.
-A volume of CIDOB’s Revista d’Afers Internacionals was dedicated to the Atlantic Space: Revista d’Afers Internacionals, “Rediscovering the Atlantic Space”, 102/103, Barcelona, Spain. The publication of this volume was done on the margins of the project, but was useful for assembling a series of reflections on the Atlantic. Many of the authors are also partners in the project. The publication was produced in Spanish.
-A website (www.atlanticfuture.eu) was created for the project. The project’s website has been one of the main tools of the dissemination of the project. It is dynamic, user-friendly, and up to date. The website contains materials, results and information related to the project and the research.
-Design and printing of ATLANTIC FUTURE leaflets. These were distributed at events related to the project as well as to stakeholders when relevant.
-Two promotional videos about the project were produced and are available on the project’s website and on YouTube: “The Atlantic future” and “What comes to mind when you think of the Atlantic?”. The audio of the second video was translated into the main languages of the Atlantic:
▪ English: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0jNydVdLao
▪ Spanish: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoayFsiqT74&feature=youtu.be
▪ Portuguese: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYNzvzAXjO8&feature=youtu.be
▪ French: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3sI3AyTMdc&feature=youtu.be
▪ Arabic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gfCMYEd-PA
-The ATLANTIC 500 virtual community of policymakers, opinion leaders, private economic actors and NGOs was created to connect all the interviewees selected for the project’s fieldwork through a web-based platform linked to the project (deliverable 11.8). LinkedIn and Facebook were the virtual platforms chosen for this endeavour because of their proven success in meeting different users’ social media preferences, while offering familiar, professional, user-friendly interfaces. Both the LinkedIn and Facebook groups are private, meaning that only members of the group can see the content and discussions shared and that only select, approved members may join. The ATLANTIC 500 platforms may be found at Atlantic 500 LinkedIn group and Atlantic 500 Facebook group. All the papers and main findings of the project were shared on both sites, and CIDOB and Ecologic Institute have sought to dynamise the two platforms through the development of:
- Discussions: the project encouraged regular and dynamic discussions on a wide variety of Atlantic topics. The moderators (CIDOB and Ecologic Institute) and partners from the whole Consortium tried to start new discussions and introduce new topics.
- Atlantic Voices: a great deal of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project’s value is the excellent team that it brought together. The project, therefore, sought to take advantage of this and created a section called “Atlantic Voices”, which contains short interviews with project partners about international events and their areas of expertise. These interviews may be found on the ATLANTIC 500 platforms, the project’s website (http://www.atlanticfuture.eu) and its social networks:
oAtlantic Voices # 1 with Jordi Vaquer
oAtlantic Voices # 2 with Andreas Kraemer
oAtlantic voices # 3 with Driss Ksikes.
- Google Hangouts: project partners were invited to give a virtual conference on the key areas of study in the ATLANTIC FUTURE project or on international issues. These Google Hangouts may be found on the ATLANTIC 500 platforms, the project’s website (http://www.atlanticfuture.eu) social network pages and YouTube channel:
oWebinar: TTIP and the wider Atlantic with Dan Hamilton, Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at SAIS at Johns Hopkins University
oWebinar on regionalisms across the Atlantic with Frank Mattheis, Senior Researcher at the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation at the University of Pretoria, and Atlantic Future partner.
- Interviews with experts and policymakers: taking advantage of the access to experts and policymakers, ATLANTIC FUTURE partners recorded short video interviews with the experts on their views of the possible emergence of an Atlantic Space. These videos may be found on the project’s website and YouTube channel:
oInterview with Federico Bonaglia, Senior Counsellor to the Director at the OECD Development Centre
oInterview with Dorval Brunelle, Director of the Institute of International Studies of Montreal (IEIM) at University du Quebec a Montreal, and member of the Scientific Advisory Panel of Atlantic Future
oInterview with Karim El Aynaoui, Managing Director of the OCP Policy Center and member of the Scientific Advisory Panel of Atlantic Future
oInterview with Yabi Gilles, Founder of The Citizen Think Tank for West Africa (WATHI) and former West Africa Director of International Crisis Group
oInterview with Nicholas Westcott, Managing Director for Africa, European External Action Service (EEAS).
- A Twitter account was created (@AtlanticFuture). It currently has more than 900 followers. The project’s Twitter account has been a dynamic dissemination tool that has allowed the project to engage with relevant stakeholders, disseminate materials either produced by the project or external to the project but related to the research.
- A Facebook page was created (FP7 Atlantic Future). It includes content from the project’s website. The Facebook page is not used as one of the main dissemination tools.
- An ATLANTIC FUTURE project newsletter was designed and published periodically as results became available. Since most of the results of the project were obtained at the end of the project, CIDOB, as Project Coordinator, will continue to support the dissemination of the final outcomes of the project over the coming months.
Besides these materials, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project organised several project meetings, dissemination events and attended various conferences and congresses with the aim of disseminating the outcomes of the project and the project itself.
ATLANTIC FUTURE plenary meetings and events:
- Kick-off Meeting of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project in Barcelona, Spain (March 2013). The meeting was hosted by CIDOB, coordinator of ATLANTIC FUTURE, and the following partners attended: AU, ECOLOGIC, FRIDE, HEM, IPRI and GMF.
- “Climate change in the Atlantic Basin” seminar, organised by Ecologic Institute and the Center for Transatlantic Relations (CTR) at Johns Hopkins University SAIS (April 2013). Daniel Hamilton and R. Andreas Kraemer presented the ATLANTIC FUTURE project and expert panellists discussed Atlantic-specific aspects of climate change impacts, challenges and governance. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- “A new look into the Atlantic”, an event organised by CIDOB in Barcelona, Spain (June 2013). CIDOB hosted the event to present the ATLANTIC FUTURE project before a selected local audience that included journalists, representatives of the ATLANTIC FUTURE consortium and academia. The main speaker was Dorval Brunelle, director of the Institute of International Studies of Montreal (IEIM) and member of the project’s Scientific and Advisory Panel. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- “The Arab world and the Atlantic Space”, organised by HEM in Rabat, Morocco (October 2013). This conference was chaired by Driss Ksikes (Director of CESEM, HEM) with a panel of five speakers: Abderrahmane Hadj Nacer, economist and former governor of the Central Bank of Algeria; Bichara Khader, Professor at UCL, Belgium; Karim El Aynaoui, Senior Researcher at the OCP Policy Center; Alfredo Valladao, Senior Researcher at HEM; and Jordi Vaquer, Senior Associate of CIDOB and (then) Scientific Coordinator of ATLANTIC FUTURE. A plenary meeting of the project was held during this event. The meeting was hosted by HEM and was attended by all partners, as well as some members of the Scientific and Advisory Panel. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- “America in the Atlantic Space” conference organised by CIDE in Mexico City in February 2014. The main speaker was José Miguel Insulza, Secretary General of the Organisation of American States (OAS). The following partners attended: CIDOB, AU, ECOLOGIC, FGV, HEM and JHU. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- Two roundtables - “The Atlantic in a changing world: emerging economic, political and social relations” and “What role for Africa in a new Atlantic area?” - were organised by the University of Pretoria, in Pretoria, South Africa (June 2014). The first roundtable was composed of the following experts: Francis Kornegay (Senior Research Fellow at The Institute for Global Dialogue), Sonia Lucarelli (Professor at the University of Bologna), R. Andreas Kraemer (ATLANTIC FUTURE, director of Ecologic Institute), Claudia Sánchez Bajo (PhD in Development Studies at the ISS in The Hague, and Chair in Cooperative Enterprises), Antonio Fiori (Korea Foundation Endowment Chair at the University of Bologna) and Jordi Vaquer (ATLANTIC FUTURE, former director of CIDOB and current director of the Open Society Initiative for Europe); the second roundtable was composed of the following experts: Jakkie Cilliers (Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies), Andrew Grant (Professor at Queen’s University, Canada), Catherine Grant (South African Institute of International Affairs), Garth Le Pere (University of Pretoria) and Brenan Vickers (Institute for Global Dialogue). Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- The second plenary meeting of the project took place in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) in October 2014 (MS8). It included an open seminar on “The Atlantic Basin as a security area?” and closed with a public event for young researchers in which project researchers introduced the concept of the Atlantic as a unit of analysis and the idea of the emergence of an Atlantic Space. The meeting was hosted by the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) and was attended by all partners, as well as some members of the Scientific and Advisory Panel. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- The briefing “The Atlantic: drivers of change” was organised by CIDOB with the help of The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE) for EU representatives and the think tank community in Brussels (February 2015) (MS7). Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- The third and last plenary meeting of the project was held in Lisbon, Portugal, in April of 2015 (MS11). The Instituto Português de Relações Internacionais-UNL (IPRI) organised this meeting. It opened with a roundtable called “Setting the Grounds for a New Understanding of the Atlantic” and closed with a lunch-seminar for young researchers on “The Future of the Atlantic: Common dynamics or different paths?”. This meeting benefitted from the participation of Ms. Eva M. Troya Blanco, from the European Commission’s Service for Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI). Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- A one morning seminar on “Brazil and the Future of the Atlantic: Challenges and opportunities” was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (November 2015). CIDOB and Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) organised the seminar with the final aim of disseminating the main findings of WP1, WP6, WP7 and WP9. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- Johns Hopkins University and Ecologic Institute organised the ATLANTIC FUTURE meeting “The Future of the Atlantic Hemisphere” in Washington D.C USA (December 2015). The conference opened with the unveiling of the Atlas of the Atlantic, a multi-year project under ATLANTIC FUTURE. Then speakers from the ATLANTIC FUTURE spoke about key themes addressed by the project, such as: energy, commerce, security and values. For more information of this event please visit the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- The final dissemination event “A transformed Atlantic Space: Emerging trends and future scenarios for Europe” was organised by CIDOB in collaboration with most of the other partners in the Consortium. This meeting presented the Atlas of the Atlantic (WP6), the future scenarios of the Atlantic 2025 (WP9) and policy recommendations to EU representatives about how the EU should engage with the Atlantic region. The meeting took place in Brussels at the Center for European Studies (CESP) in December 2015. For this meeting we benefitted from the presence of the Project Officer, Anne Nielsen. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- 5 training seminars for young researchers were organised throughout the project: “The Emerging Leaders Working Lunch: an Atlantic future” in Morocco, the “Atlantic Seminar for Young Researchers” in Mexico, the “Atlantic Working Lunch with UP Young Innovators” in South Africa, “The Atlantic as a unit of analysis: towards an Atlantic Future?” in Brazil, and “The Future of the Atlantic: Common dynamics or different paths?” in Portugal.
▪ Participation in conferences (by invitation or submission and acceptance)
- Members of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project attended the conference of the Latin American Studies Association (LASA) in Washington DC in May 2013 to disseminate the project. The LASA conference was deemed to be of interest to ATLANTIC FUTURE given the geographical focus on Latin America. The trip also included a meeting between several partners (CIDOB, CIDE and JHU) to discuss details regarding the data compilation going on in the project.
- ATLANTIC FUTURE held a panel entitled “Governing Global Challenges in the Atlantic” at the General Conference of the European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI) in Bonn, Germany on 26 June 2014. The panel included the presentation of two papers produced within the framework of the project by the partners ECOLOGIC and GMF.
- Meetings in Madrid (Spain) between the Project Manager Laia Tarragona with selected stakeholders in the Atlantic. In particular, a meeting was held with Mr Pablo Casado, member of the Spanish parliament (Popular Party), while another was held with researchers in the economic and Latin American areas of the Real Instituto Elcano think tank. At both meetings, the project was presented and ideas on the Atlantic were exchanged. Both Mr Casado and the researchers at Real Instituto Elcano showed strong interest in the project.
- Meeting in Brussels with the Bureau of European Policy Advisors (BEPA) and DG Research and Innovation on 27 March 2014. CIDOB’s team presented the progress made on ATLANTIC FUTURE to Mr Vasco Cal (BEPA), Mr Simon Schunz and Mr Robert Burmanjer (DG Research and Innovation).
- Participation of Susanne Gratius, FRIDE, as ATLANTIC FUTURE partner at the conference “Research meets diplomacy: Europe as a Global Actor” within the project Flash-it, to speak of the evolution of EU-LAC relations in a multipolar world (June 2014).
- Paula de Castro (CIDOB) attended “The Atlantic stakeholder’s conference” organised by the European Commission in Porto, Portugal (January 2015) with the aim of disseminating the project.
- Frank Mattheis from the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation at the University of Pretoria (UP) attended the annual convention of the International Studies Association (ISA) entitled “Global IR and Regional Words: A New Agenda for International Studies”, in New Orleans, USA (February 2015). During this conference Frank Mattheis disseminated the results of WP8. The report of this conference may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.com.
- Frank Mattheis from the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation at the University of Pretoria (UP) and Gian Luca Gardini, from the Friedrich-Alexander Universitat Erlanger Nurnberg, attended the 9th Pan-European Conference on International Relations (EISA) in Catania, Italy (September 2015). During this conference the researchers disseminated the results of WP7 and WP8. The report of this conference may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.com.
- Frank Mattheis from the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation at the University of Pretoria (UP) attended the conference “World Regions Compared” organised by the German Political Science Association (DPWV) and the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg, Germany (February 2015). During this conference Frank Mattheis disseminated the results of WP8. The report on this conference may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.com.
- Frank Mattheis from the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation at the University of Pretoria (UP) attended the EUSA Fourteenth Biennial Conference of the European Union Studies Association in Boston, USA (March 2015). During this conference Frank Mattheis disseminated the results of WP8. The report of this conference can be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.com.
- Laia Tarragona and Paula de Castro from CIDOB and Susanne Gratius from FRIDE attended the “I International Conference Atlantic Communities Translation, Mobility, Hospitality” in Vigo, Spain (September 2015). During this conference, members of the project disseminated the results of WP1, WP7 and WP9.
- Lorena Ruano, Mark Aspinwall from CIDE and Jordi Bacaria and Oriol Farrés from CIDOB attended the “29th Annual Congress of the Mexican Association of International Studies (AMEI)”, Cancun, Mexico (October 2015). During this conference members of the project disseminated the results of WP1, WP2 and WP6.
- HEM - CESEM organised a roundtable about on “The role of Morocco in a new Atlantic order” in Rabat, Morocco (October 2015).
- The German Marshall Fund and HEM – CESEM organised an ATLANTIC FUTURE breakfast in the framework of The Atlantic Dialogues in Marrakech, Morocco (October 2015) at which results from WP1, WP3, WP5, WP7 and WP9 were presented.
Project Results:
▪The potential impact of the project’s results
The research carried out in the ATLANTIC FUTURE project has the potential to fill a significant gap in the field of study of the Atlantic as a whole, which is an approach that is almost absent from contemporary social science, which has traditionally focused only on North-North Atlantic relations. ATLANTIC FUTURE has contributed to building the scientific foundations in this area with the delivery and publication of: 39 scientific papers, 18 interview reports, three policy papers, three policy briefs, two policy reports, two business briefs and two reports about the “Interactive Atlas of the Atlantic” and the “Changing intra-Atlantic interdependencies: Implications for the EU and its major partners”. Furthermore, the project has assembled new tools that will be of use to the scientific community and policymakers: 1) historical databases that provide sets of data aimed at increasing the understanding of the Atlantic and its transformation; and 2) an Atlas of the Atlantic that offers a visual representation of the linkages connecting the peoples of North and South America, Europe and Africa in terms of key issues (migration, energy, goods, services, ideas, money, drugs, etc.), with the added value that it may also be used to compare the dynamics of the Atlantic hemisphere and the Asian hemisphere.
In terms of socioeconomic impact and wider societal implications, the project provides new analysis and data to stakeholders and institutions across the Atlantic Space, which may use the new information to take decisions that best fit the transformation the Atlantic Space is undergoing. Likewise, the project contributes to strengthening epistemic communities across the Atlantic. The project has helped to link institutions between key countries and key stakeholders (e.g. members of the project’s Scientific and Advisory Panel) across the Atlantic. Moreover, the project has created the virtual platform of the ATLANTIC 500 in which leaders of the Atlantic could boost the creation of this Atlantic epistemic community. Similarly, the project has contributed with other initiatives such as the Atlantic Dialogues (organised by the partner institution The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF)) and the Atlantic Initiative (at CTR of the Johns Hopkins University (JHU)) and other projects that were of interest such as FP7 Transworld and FP7 T-A Platform. Finally, the dissemination and outreach activities of the project such as public events, seminars, meetings with stakeholders and activities directed to students or young leaders made a significant contribution to raising awareness on Atlantic-related issues and to strengthening the epistemic communities.
Proof of the interest that stakeholders and the Atlantic community have in the Atlantic is the use of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project as a source of new initiatives, new projects and as a base from which academic research and policy analysis can be boosted. Examples of this are the European Commission’s publication of “A Global actor in search of a strategy: European Union foreign policy between multilateralism and bilateralism” and the fact that ATLANTIC FUTURE has been listed as one of the projects of reference on which other calls for projects of the European Commission can be built. An example of this is the “Cooperation with Northern and Southern Transatlantic Dimension-Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)” (FWC COM 2011 –LOT 1) project. In other cases, the experience of ATLANTIC FUTURE has been considered by financial institutions to be an asset and an example of good practices valued in competitive calls for projects.
▪A plan for use and dissemination of foreground according to the type of audience targeted by the project
Academia. Academia has been and will continue to be one of the primary audiences targeted by the project. This includes the scientific and research community in the disciplines of International Relations, International Political Economy, Economics, and Geography. Outreach towards academia will continue to be made, where possible, through the following communication instruments or channels:
•Continuous dissemination of the project’s results through the project website;
•Publications in academic journals;
•Presentation of the main project findings on panels at public conferences related to Atlantic studies;
•Dissemination of the final monograph of the project and the Atlas of the Atlantic.
Furthermore, partners in the Consortium will ensure that the results of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project are made available to the scientific and research communities through the websites of each institution and open access repositories such as the Community Research and Development Information Services (CORDIS) tools that the European Commission has at its disposal.
Policymakers. Policymakers have been and will continue to be one of the primary targets of the project. They include policy- and decision-makers at national, regional and international levels:
•National level: Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Home Affairs or Environment, or diplomats from the countries of the Atlantic.
•Regional level: policy officers from the European Commission, EEAS, members and senior officials of the European Parliament (in particular, the Committee on Foreign Affairs, the EuroLat delegation, the EU-US delegation), Council officials.
•International level: officers within international organisations such as the United Nations, OECD, WTO, and other institutions that focus on the thematic issues in ATLANTIC FUTURE research (e.g. environment, security, etc.).
One of the goals of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project was to secure the participation of these policymakers in the project’s activities. From now on, each institution will try to forge the relations with the policymakers contacted through the project and to explore possible ways for future collaboration on a content and institutional level to secure the dissemination of the project’s main findings. For this endeavour, ATLANTIC FUTURE will use the following tools, where possible, to reach out policymakers:
•Continuous dissemination of the project’s results through the project website;
•Continuous dissemination of the project’s results at meetings and conferences related to Atlantic studies in which the participation of policymakers is relevant;
•Dissemination of the policy briefs produced by the project;
•Dissemination of the Atlas of the Atlantic at the EU premises;
•Dialogue with stakeholders through the ATLANTIC 500, as many of the participants in the platform are policymakers.
Business. For the ATLANTIC FUTURE project, the business audience was composed of private actors such as industries and companies that have interests in other regions of the Atlantic Space or that are directly affected by the thematic focus of the research. The aim of the project’s business strategy was to engage such private actors in all phases of the project and share the results with the business community at large. Partners in the ATLANTIC FUTURE project will continue to use, where possible, the following tools to reach the business community:
•Continuous dissemination of the project’s results through the project website;
•Dissemination of targeted products such as the business briefs;
•Dissemination of the final monograph and the Atlas of the Atlantic;
•Dialogue with stakeholders through the ATLANTIC 500, as many of the participants in the platform are members of the business community.
Media and Opinion Leaders. The media and opinion leaders were also one of audiences targeted by the ATLANTIC FUTURE project. They included the media, the wider think tank community and civil society. ATLANTIC FUTURE connected with this audience by selecting media-worthy materials and disseminating the results amongst opinion leaders. Project partners will continue to use, where possible, the following tools to disseminate the main results of the project to the media and opinion leaders:
•Continuous dissemination of the project’s results through the project website;
•Dissemination of the final monograph and the Atlas of the Atlantic;
•Dialogue with stakeholders through the ATLANTIC 500, as some of the members of the platform are from the media and civil society;
•Dissemination of the animation and promotional videos created throughout the project.
Potential Impact:
The address of the project’s public website is: www.atlanticfuture.eu
The addresses of the project’s social networks are:
•Twitter account (@AtlanticFuture): https://twitter.com/AtlanticFuture
•Facebook page (FP7 Atlantic Future): https://www.facebook.com/Fp7-Atlantic-Future-513622615354224/
•YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDglVlWdsqnQR0eoy0oaAIga
ATLANTIC 500 virtual platforms:
•Atlantic 500 LinkedIn group: https://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=8230809&trk=vsrp_groups_res_name&trkInfo=VSRPsearchId%3A857221691422205228576%2CVSRPtargetId%3A8230809%2CVSRPcmpt%3Aprimary
•Atlantic 500 Facebook group:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1531424837131600/.
List of Websites:
Ethics review of the project:
As stated in Annex I of the Grant Agreement, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project was carried out in line with Directive no. 95/46/EC of the European Parliament and the Council on the protection of individuals with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data. The following principles were paramount for the good development of the project and, in particular, during the project’s fieldwork:
-Responsibility: the management structure assigned clear responsibility for the research activities and their results.
-Objectivity: the choice of research objects was made in an objective and scholarly way, taking into account any potentially harmful social and individual effects.
-Scientific deontology: all the rules that guarantee the scientific soundness of the project’s work were implemented throughout the research and its publication, in particular, those relating to copyright and proper citation of all materials used.
-Voluntary participation and informed consent: during the fieldwork specific guidelines were prepared by the Project Coordinator to ensure that partners involved in the fieldwork complied with the requisite personal data protection rules. These guidelines consisted of a series of general principles and quotations and attribution rules as follows:
•General Principles: as agreed and established in the Grant Agreement signed with the European Commission in the Seventh Framework Programme (no. 320091), the ATLANTIC FUTURE project committed to disclosing to the general public the sources of the information in its research activities to the maximum extent possible. The ATLANTIC FUTURE project sought to ensure that the fieldwork reported to the scientific community and the European authorities was as transparent as possible, informing them of how and where we got our information. For this, the project considered that it was paramount that researchers were honest and fair in gathering, reporting and interpreting information. For the project it was important that researchers who pledged confidentiality to a source did not violate that pledge.
Quotations and attribution rules:
-Interview reports did not attribute information that could lead to the identification of interviewees.
-Interview reports were anonymous under the formula of a code that helped to anonymise the information according to the area of expertise and professional sector.
-Project partners committed to keeping a confidential list with the information linking interviewees with their remarks, with the commitment to use it only internally.
-Some interviews were recorded with the interviewees’ permission. However, recorded interviews were not allowed to be made public and should be either destroyed or kept only for the researcher her/himself.
-When a source’s words were placed inside quotation marks, those exact words were uttered in precisely that form.
-Quotations attacking a named person or institution in pejorative terms were not permitted to be made public.
-When quoting interviewees for whom English was not their first language, special care was taken.
-Transparency: the results of the research have been made fully available to informants who participated in the research.
-Accountability: research materials are being preserved in a way that ensures accountability.
-Interculturality: ATLANTIC FUTURE operated in a heterogeneous cultural environment, bringing together researchers from 13 countries. Care was always taken to respect local, regional and national cultures. The specificity of ethnic and religious identities was always treated with sensitivity and respect, and integrated into the research plans.
The ATLANTIC FUTURE project was developed in a setting of profound transformation in the global arena, with the redistribution of power the main trend in international relations. Redistribution refers, first of all, to a shift of power among state actors. In particular, there has been a shift toward Asia, with growth in Asia and the Pacific Rim in part due to the economic, financial and political crisis that has hit the West in the last years. Furthermore, the dynamic of a shift from North to South can also be seen in the rise of developing economies such as Brazil and South Africa, which play an important role in the context of the project.
In this global setting, and in spite of the rise of the Asia-Pacific region, the Atlantic remains one of the most dynamic regions in the world. On the one hand, the North America-Europe link continues to be the strongest and largest of the transcontinental relations. On the other, although still suffering from profound asymmetry, North-South relations between the US and Latin America and Europe and Africa are changing, with both Latin America and Africa increasing their interregional links and gaining weight in global affairs. This redistribution of power also implies a shift from state actors to non-state actors, such as regions, transnational corporations, large cities, language communities and diasporas.
In this context of change, and at a time of deepening interdependence, global challenges such as the economic crisis, climate change, poverty, the refugee crisis, regional conflicts, energy and food security are becoming more pressing than ever. These global challenges require global solutions, but the multilateral frameworks in place do not seem to be effective. In the Atlantic, global challenges present opportunities as well as obstacles. Thus, positive factors, such as the potential for better management of shared resources, and negative ones, like the illegal flow of narcotics that harms the whole region, emerge as potential drivers for cooperation, competition or conflict.
The context described above has evolved since the project began, and analysis of current events has been integrated at all stages. Growth rates in the Atlantic are higher now that the worse part of the economic crisis seems to be over. The Europe-US link is gaining importance once again as a result of the negotiation of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Relations with Russia, the situation in Ukraine and the impact of regional conflicts in the Middle East are once again putting the focus on the Atlantic Space. Beyond this, the strong emergence of non-state actors requires institutions and governments to rethink their approaches to the current challenges and presents opportunities for strengthening the wider transatlantic relations.
Objectives. The main objective of ATLANTIC FUTURE was to analyse the fundamental trends in the Atlantic and show how changing links in key areas such as economy and finance, security, cultural, social and political relations, and resources and the environment are transforming the wider Atlantic Space. Research mapped the interconnections between those areas across the Atlantic. It also tracked the evolution of region-to-region relations between Africa, the Americas and Europe and took in a variety of perspectives from all the Atlantic regions and powers. Furthermore, the project identified opportunities for and obstacles to stronger cooperation, both on issues limited to the Atlantic and on global challenges. It included a prospective exercise in which future scenarios were projected for the Atlantic Space in 2025. Finally, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project reviewed the European Union’s interregional links with the other continents with direct access to the Atlantic and aimed to produce policy recommendations for the European Union’s Atlantic agenda.
Some of these objectives were responses to scientific targets, others to policy-oriented goals and still others were oriented to strengthening transregional epistemic communities. They can be summarised in the following five points:
-Understanding the Atlantic: the project aimed to achieve a better understanding of the Atlantic as a political space undergoing fundamental changes relating to the restructuring of the international system.
-Mapping change: through the compilation of datasets and visualisations in the form of the Atlas of the Atlantic, the project aimed to capture the empirical evidence of change and continuities in the Atlantic on a large number of issues.
-Collecting perspectives: the project aimed to examine the perceptions of a plurality of stakeholders on the Atlantic from all four continents, which also contributed to strengthening the possible creation of an epistemic community across the region.
-Analysing region-to-region relations: the project aimed to identify the opportunities, challenges and risks around improving cooperation and transforming multilateral and regional institutions.
-Projecting trends: the project aimed to outline possible future scenarios by examining the evolution of current and emerging trends and projecting them into the future.
-Identifying opportunities: the project assessed the potential implications of emerging trends in the Atlantic for EU foreign policy and provided policy recommendations to the EU on how to engage with partners in the Atlantic.
Project Context and Objectives:
Work carried out since the beginning of the project:
The ATLANTIC FUTURE project officially started on the 1st of January 2013 and finished on the 31st of December 2015. The work done during the project can be summarised as follows: conceptual work was carried out to establish the framework of the research (WP1); datasets were compiled with data on the thematic areas (economic, security, political, social, resources and environmental transformations) and scientific papers were written on each (WP2 to WP5); an Atlas of the Atlantic (WP6) was designed; perspectives from stakeholders in the Atlantic region were gathered (WP7); and interregional relations around the Atlantic were studied (WP8). Additionally, the project identified and analysed the principal actors and factors that are shaping the evolution of the Atlantic and provided three possible scenarios for the Atlantic with a 2025 horizon (WP9). Using all the main findings mentioned above, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project assessed the impact of emerging trends in the wider Atlantic on the European Union and provided policy recommendations on how the European Union should engage with its partners in the Atlantic Space (WP10).
Finally, multiple activities were carried out as part of the dissemination and outreach efforts of the project (WP11). Project meetings were held in Barcelona, Spain (March 2013), Rabat, Morocco (October 2013), Mexico City, Mexico (February 2014), Pretoria, South Africa (June 2014), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (October 2014) and Lisbon, Portugal (April 2015). Besides this, the project presented its main findings at multiple events and external conferences in: Porto, Portugal (January 2015), New Orleans, USA (February 2015), Catania, Italy (September 2015), Hamburg, Germany (February 2015), Boston, USA (March 2015), Vigo, Spain (September 2015), Cancun, Mexico (October 2015), Rabat, Morocco (October 2015), Marrakesh, Morocco (November 2015), Washington D.C. USA (December 2015) and Brussels, Belgium (February 2014 and December 2015).
Main results of the project:
The framework of the research (WP1). During the first months of the project, the research was devoted to a necessary contextualisation of the Atlantic. This was done in two ways. On the one hand, preliminary papers were presented and discussed at the project seminar in Rabat, Morocco (October 2013) on a variety of aspects such as: historical context; a preliminary conceptualisation of the Atlantic; institutional frameworks; the identification of global challenges; and the use of interpolarity as a way to define the emerging system. After this initial phase, the Work Package was put on hold and restarted during the second period of the project, in which the theorisation of the Atlantic Space was supported by the empirical and qualitative data gathered throughout the project. Specifically, the project produced the following for Work Package 1:
- A concept paper that included the geographical and temporal scope of the research, as well as the criteria for identifying relevant topics and indicators on the key areas for obtaining empirical evidence for mapping the transformation in the Atlantic (deliverable 1.1).
- A concept paper that identified the implications of the main findings of Work Packages 2-5 for EU foreign policy (deliverable 1.2).
- Historical datasets on changes in the Atlantic Space (deliverable 1.3) that gathered information about human flows and demography, economy, energy, transport and environment and political change in a time-space that ideally covered the last 200 years of Atlantic history. The consortium envisioned three main purposes of this exercise: a) to provide quantitative evidence for the scientific papers of the project (in particular those focusing on historical change and patterns); b) to support the exercise of data visualisation of those topics that revealed unexpected patterns and trends taking place in the Atlantic; c) provide the empirical evidence to illustrate the monograph of the project (deliverable 1.5); d) to detect the main historical narratives essential to our research and that later became part of the interactive Atlas of the Atlantic (deliverable 6.1).
- As a result of the conceptualisation work carried out under WP1, six scientific papers were written (deliverable 1.4):
▪ Scientific paper no. 27: “Historical Power Relations and changes in the Atlantic: a two centuries overview”
▪ Scientific paper no. 28: “Atlantic Multilateralism and Prospects for Pan-Atlantic Institutions: an Historical Perspective”
▪ Scientific paper no. 29: “Reviving pan-Atlantic interdependencies – A laboratory for global governance”
▪ Scientific paper no. 30: “The Atlantic Basin: An eclectic but converging region?”
▪ Scientific paper no. 31: “An emerging and globalised Atlantic Space?”
▪ Scientific paper no. 32: “Regional environmental challenges and solutions in the Pan-Atlantic Space”
- The monograph “Atlantic Future: Shaping a New Hemisphere for the 21st century: Africa, Europe and the Americas” is a compendium of all the main findings of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project (deliverable 1.5). The introduction explains the main objectives and research questions that guided the development of the project. Its subsequent chapters explain: 1) the Atlantic from a historical perspective; 2) the trends that are shaping the Atlantic in the economic, security, political, social, cultural, resources and environmental areas; 3) power shifts and interdependence; 4) regional and interregional relations; 5) the perceptions that the Atlantic has of itself; and 6) the possible scenarios that will shape the Atlantic in the next ten years.
Thematic areas (WP2–WP5). A great deal of time and resources during the first period of the project were devoted to gathering empirical evidence, which has a three-fold objective: to build the datasets on each of the thematic areas, to support the scientific papers, and to build the Atlas of the Atlantic in the second period of the project. The project designed standardised procedures for the building of the datasets. The data was collected to identify trends and patterns of continuity and change in the Atlantic Space, with the aim of mapping the transformation of the region.
Based on the empirical evidence collected as well as other sources and further analysis, nineteen scientific papers on the four key thematic areas of the project were delivered during the first period of the project:
•On Economy and Finance: (1) Continuities and changes in patterns of direct investment flows between South America and Africa; (2) Commercial Ties in the Atlantic Basin: The Evolving Role of Services and Investment; (3) Multilateral Agreements and Global Governance of International Trade Regimes; (4) Global Value Chains in the Atlantic Space; (5) Technology, Trade and Changes in Transport in the Atlantic Space.
•On Security: (6) The Atlantic as a new security area? Current engagements and prospects for security cooperation between Africa and its Atlantic counterparts; (7) Maritime Territorial Delimitation and Maritime Security in the Atlantic; (8) Significant Trends in Illicit Trafficking: A Macro View of the Problem and Potential Means to Address It; (9) Fragile States: Challenges and Opportunities for Atlantic Relations.
•On People and Institutions: (10) Convergence or Divergence of Ideas, Norms, and Principles in the Atlantic? The Case of Transnational Environmental Networks; (11) Development in the Atlantic: Between cooperation and competition; (12) Atlantic countries’ voting patterns on human rights and human security at the United Nations: the cases of Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti, Iran and Syria; (13) Geometries of Human Mobility in the Atlantic Space; (14) The community of Portuguese Language Speaking Countries: The role of language in a globalizing world.
•On Resources and the Environment: (15) Marine resource management and coastal livelihoods: an Atlantic perspective; (16) Climate change impacts in the Atlantic Basin and coordinated adaptation responses; (17) Atlantic Energy and the Changing Global Energy Flow Map; (18) Sustainable Policy Perceptions in the Atlantic Basin. Green Policy Index; (19) Food security and agriculture issues in the Atlantic Basin.
The Atlas of the Atlantic (WP6). During the second period, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project created the Atlas of the Atlantic, an interactive online tool that draws on over 100 datasets collected during the first period of the project. This atlas was designed to offer new visual maps of the linkages connecting the peoples of North and South America, Europe and Africa, on issues such as migration, energy, goods, services, ideas, money, drugs and other themes (deliverable 6.1). The Atlas of the Atlantic is also useful to compare the dynamics of the Atlantic hemisphere with those of the Asian hemisphere. The Atlas of the Atlantic is available at http://www.atlasoftheatlantic.eu
A report on “Changing intra-Atlantic interdependencies: Implications for the EU and its major partners” was written (deliverable 6.2) based on the empirical evidence provided in the thematic Work Packages (WP2-WP5) and the visualisations produced in the Atlas of the Atlantic. This report identifies the primary connections across the Atlantic, their evolution and their implications for the EU and its major partners.
Perspectives from the Atlantic (WP7). During the second period of the project, ATLANTIC FUTURE performed 488 interviews in 25 countries in Africa, Europe and North, South and Central America: Angola, Argentina, Cameroon, Canada, Cape Verde, Colombia, Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, Ghana, Honduras, Italy, Mexico, Morocco, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Poland, Portugal, Senegal, Spain, South Africa, the United States, the United Kingdom and Venezuela. Besides these, interviews were also made in three cities that host the headquarters of international organisations: Geneva, Washington D.C. and New York.
As a result of the fieldwork a cluster of 7 interview reports on regional perspectives were delivered and uploaded to the project’s website (www.atlanticfuture.eu):
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Mexico, Colombia and Honduras
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Canada and the United States
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Cameroon, South Africa and West Africa
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Angola
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Morocco
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Cape Verde.
An interview report on the perspectives from the European Union countries and international organisations was delivered and uploaded to the project’s website:
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview reports from Germany
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from the Netherlands
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from the UK
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from Belgium
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from France
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from Poland
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from Portugal
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from Spain
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from Italy
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from International Organisations in Geneva
▪ Atlantic Perspectives, Interview report from International Organisations in New York and Washington DC.
Finally, scientific paper no. 37 “The Atlantic within the Atlantic” presented a comparative analysis of the interviews carried out in the 25 countries of the Atlantic Space and the three cities that are hubs of international organisations (Geneva in Switzerland and New York and Washington D.C. in the USA).
The main conclusions of the work carried out under WP7 include the following:
- The Atlantic’s shared values, forged on a common heritage could distinguish the region. Nevertheless, the project discovered how the ways of acting upon these common values have continuously diverged due to the varying levels of development and consequent needs of each particular country. To the point that countries from the South Atlantic have felt more inclined to identify themselves with countries from Asia with which they share the same needs and problematics than with countries from the North Atlantic.
- From the interviews, it also became clear that, given the global nature of the challenges we are facing nowadays, the Atlantic Space has the opportunity to align its common interests and boost collaborative relations. The main obstacle to cementing this vision comes from internal and external factors that have reinforced protectionist views and inward-looking foreign policies that feed the traditional approach of a powerful North Atlantic dictating the rules to a dependent South.
- Based on the interviewees’ responses, the idea of a possible emergence of an Atlantic Space seems still to be far from the Atlantic imaginary. However, the perception of challenges and the recognition of areas of mutual interest also confirmed that certain trends are taking place in the Atlantic, and new narratives are emerging.
Understanding regional and interregional relations (WP8). During the second period of the project, ATLANTIC FUTURE studied regionalism and interregional relations across the Atlantic. An analysis of these types of relations was carried out in the framework of a distinctive new Atlantic Space for international relations. The primary strength and contribution of this study was its comprehensive insight into the overlapping linkages of interregionalism in the wider Atlantic Space. Additionally, Work Package 8 addressed the question of relevance: is interregionalism important because it brings about something new that really matters or is it simply a (perhaps unavoidable) by-product of regionalism?
With the aim of having substantial impact on the scientific study of interregionalism and on its political meaning, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project produced eight scientific papers on regionalism and interregionalism. These papers may be found on the ATLANTIC FUTURE website (http://www.atlanticfuture.eu):
▪ Scientific paper no. 20: “Regionalism and Interregionalism in Latin America: The Beginning or the End of Latin America’s ‘Continental Integration?’”
▪ Scientific paper no. 21: “Interregional Relations between North America and Africa”
▪ Scientific paper no. 22: “Regional and Interregional Interactions in Europe, North America and across the North Atlantic”
▪ Scientific paper no. 23: “Regionalism and Interregionalism: The case of Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa”
▪ Scientific paper no. 24: “EU-Latin America and Caribbean Inter-regional relations: complexity and change”
▪ Scientific paper no. 25: “Actors and opportunities: Interregional Processes in the Arab Region and Latin America and the Caribbean”
▪ Scientific paper no. 26: “Sub-Saharan Africa and the EU”.
These papers provided state-of-the-art, innovative analysis of regionalism and interregionalism, comparing various regional and interregional processes and taking the often neglected South-South dimension, as well as the role of non-state actors, seriously. This included engaging with the issue of agency in interregional relations, arguing that interregional processes and agendas are always driven and constructed by certain actors for certain purposes. Therefore, by having a more comprehensive and holistic approach to the study of interregionalism, these papers aimed to contribute to theory-building in the field.
Furthermore, an overarching conceptual paper was written with the aim of discussing the current literature on interregionalism, comparing case studies, discussing trends and improving theoretical instruments for studying interregionalism:
▪ Scientific paper no. 38: “Debunking Interregionalism: Concepts, Types and Critique – With a Transatlantic Focus”.
Finally, an edited volume, composed of shortened and reframed versions of the papers and accompanied by an introductory chapter by the coordinators will be published by Springer International Publishing and will be available at: http://link.springer.com/bookseries/7716. CIDOB will inform the European Commission when the volume is available.
Some of the findings, which contributed to answering the research questions of this Work Package, can be summarised as follows:
-Most projects to form regions across national borders (i.e. regionalisms) in the Atlantic Space have evolved within continental boundaries. Territorial contingency and proximity have determined the shape of most projects, and only a few organisations, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), have cut across the Atlantic Ocean. Thus, different types and logics of region-building have emerged within Africa (Pan-Africanism), Latin America (accumulation of alliances), North America (trade-focused minimalist institutionalisation) and Europe (sophisticated institutionalisation and actorness abroad).
-While there was a sense of synchrony and adherence to liberalism in the Atlantic Space around the beginning of a new wave of regionalism after the Cold War, the subsequent evolution of the various projects has been characterised by fragmentation. Latin America and the Arab world have become arenas of contesting regionalisms and aspiring regional leaders. Africa is still in a process of reconfiguration with several sub-regions that are constantly changing shape and outlook. By contrast, Europe and the North Atlantic have dominant, consolidated and expanding regionalisms.
-The main sources of ideas to effectively define the boundaries of a region in the Atlantic Space have often been based on identity foundations. The influence of “pan-” movements is still relevant in contemporary regionalisms in Africa and Latin America, while the legal identity of the acquis communautaire has provided the foundation for the EU.
-The major division of regionalism in the Atlantic Space remains along the North-South axis. Several projects to bridge this gap, such as the FTAA or the Union for the Mediterranean have failed to generate integrative momentum. By contrast, the emergence of regional powers such as Brazil, South Africa and Nigeria is closely interwoven with their membership of regional projects. Regionalisms such as Mercosur, UNASUR, SADC, ECOWAS and the AU have been instrumental to these countries’ leadership and their global visibility.
-The EU has been perceived as the world’s most advanced regional integration project, and indeed it sees itself as a governance model for other countries and regions in the world. Currently, however, a number of factors and challenges, both within the EU and in the other regions, are affecting its capacity to inspire and promote its ideas, values and practices. Atlantic geopolitics is currently dominated by pluralism rather than unity. Emerging economies and groups of states in the South Atlantic are developing strategies that challenge the traditional Western powers and new regional and interregional initiatives of varied nature and composition proliferate.
-The institutionalised forms of regional and interregional projects may have limitations, but the experiences in the Atlantic Space provide case studies that mean it can be considered a laboratory of multilateralism at global level. Firstly, positive integration factors such as identity, ideology, transfers and entanglement have provided a more durable basis for region-building than external actors, be they funders or perceived opponents. Secondly, regions are constantly in flux, expanding or contracting, both in their membership and in their objectives. Geographical boundaries increasingly succumb to political, economic or social ideas of desired cohesion. Thirdly, interregionalism often tends to be highly asymmetrical due the high variety of regional institutionalisation, actorness and outreach. As a consequence, the linkages tend to be driven unilaterally and can produce structures of dependence and mimicry.
Projecting trends (WP9). During the second part of the project, ATLANTIC FUTURE identified the key actors and factors shaping and structuring the wider Atlantic Space. The project also analysed the main drivers of change, the interactions between the selected actors and factors and provided three future scenarios for the Atlantic. Concretely, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project produced the following papers that can be found on the ATLANTIC FUTURE website (http://www.atlanticfuture.eu):
-Four scientific papers outlining key factors and actors or the future development of the Atlantic Space:
▪ Scientific paper no. 33: “The Future Pan-Atlantic Economy”
▪ Scientific paper no. 34: “Addressing the Atlantic’s Emerging Security Challenges”
▪ Scientific paper no. 35: “Political, social and cultural trends in the Atlantic”
▪ Scientific paper no. 36: “Patterns of Production and Consumption in the Atlantic Space and Future Environment and Resource Scenarios”.
-A policy report and a scientific paper on scenarios:
▪ Policy report no. 1: “Charting the future of the Atlantic”
▪ Scientific paper no. 39: “Atlantic Scenarios 2025”.
The main conclusions of the work carried out under WP9 include the following:
-Economic connections will further deepen within the Atlantic Space and the US and the EU will continue to play a central role there, even as Asia and China in particular become increasingly important players. The dynamic interaction between trade and investment will continue to distinguish the Atlantic economy. Trade in services has intensified and is set to expand rapidly, to the benefit of Atlantic economies.
- A new industrial revolution is emerging in the Atlantic Space, driven by the US in particular and powered by the development of the digital economy and innovation at large. This will create new growth opportunities and may also enable countries from the South Atlantic to connect to the US and European value chains and modernise their economies.
-Traditional and emerging powers in the Atlantic Space are seeking to diversify their portfolio of political and economic partners. Interregional partnerships and frameworks are increasingly complementing those based on continental cooperation. A number of preferential trade agreements have been concluded and more are likely to come. If finalised, the TTIP will likely reinforce cooperation among its members while imposing competitive pressures on non-members, unless mechanisms are devised to engage South Atlantic partners.
-Demographic trends will play an important role in shaping the future of the Atlantic Space, with Africa’s population expanding fast while Europe’s population ages. Africa’s capacity to absorb the youth bulge will be an important factor for its stability and prosperity.
-The size of the middle class is expected to stall or shrink in the North Atlantic and to grow in the South Atlantic, notably in Latin America. This will have economic and political implications in all Atlantic regions. Demand for better governance may grow in the South Atlantic, alongside a widening consumer market. Politics may become more polarised in Europe and the US in the face of challenges to living standards and the question of migration. Rising and/or large inequalities pose a problem across the Atlantic Space.
-Democratic political values are broadly shared within the Atlantic. However, normative differences between the North and South Atlantic have proved resilient and are unlikely to fade in the short term, which will likely delimit (but not exclude) cooperation on issues of political reform, peace and security. In a range of fields, from energy and climate change to development and dealing with transnational threats, cooperation in the Atlantic Space is likely to make incremental progress and take place à la carte.
-Classic geopolitical competition is very unlikely to emerge among Atlantic powers. Piracy, the convergence between trafficking, organised crime and terrorism, and the vulnerability of critical energy infrastructure are among the main security challenges facing the Atlantic Space. Many of these challenges converge in West Africa/Sahel but affect the interests and security of countries in the Atlantic Space at large. Various cooperative initiatives have been undertaken to deal with these threats but a pan-Atlantic approach is lacking and there is a need for a platform involving Europe, Africa and the Americas to discuss and tackle shared challenges.
-Three energy revolutions are unfolding in the Atlantic, namely the shale revolution in North America, the offshore one in the South Atlantic and the low carbon revolution. All have the potential to redefine the energy landscape in the Atlantic and beyond over the long term, even if their prospects will depend on a range of factors such as the evolution of oil prices. The cost of low carbon technologies is falling and in the next decade much of the additional power generation capacity in the Atlantic is expected to come from renewables. The countries of the South Atlantic will make important choices concerning their energy mix in the coming years, which will present challenges and opportunities to delink growth from rising emissions. Cooperation between countries in the Atlantic can help make a difference to those choices and steer economic growth on an environmentally sustainable path. On top of this, important areas for future environmental cooperation in the Atlantic Space include food security, overfishing and countering wildlife trafficking and biodiversity loss.
Implications of the trends taking place in the wider Atlantic for European Union foreign policy (WP10). ATLANTIC FUTURE analysed the main findings of the whole project with the aim of: 1) identifying the impact that the Atlantic trends have on European Union foreign policy; and 2) providing policy recommendations on how the European Union should engage with its partners in the wider Atlantic area. As a result of this analysis, several papers were produced:
-Three policy papers on the implications of the findings in the Atlantic Space for US-EU, Africa-EU and LAC-EU relations (these may be found on the ATLANTIC FUTURE website: http://www.atlanticfuture.eu/):
▪ Policy paper no. 01: “A Pan-Atlantic Agenda for EU-US Relations”
▪ Policy paper no. 02: “EU-LAC relations against the background of Atlantic trends and scenarios”
▪ Policy paper no. 03: “The Relations between the European Union and Africa”.
-One policy report on the EU and the Atlantic, containing a list of policy recommendations. This paper may be found on the ATLANTIC FUTURE website: http://www.atlanticfuture.eu/):
▪ Policy report no. 02: “Elements for an EU’s pan-Atlantic agenda: building an Atlantic community”.
The main findings, which contributed to answering the research questions of this Work Package and informed the policy recommendations, are the following:
-Growing connections across the wider Atlantic should prompt the EU and the US to incorporate issues of pan-Atlantic import into their traditional bilateral agenda. First, the partners must strengthen their own core relationship across the North Atlantic, particularly through trade and energy initiatives. Second, the partners should redefine the “Atlantic Community” to engage countries and societies across the whole Atlantic Space in promoting economic growth, human development and energy links, enhance human security and resilience, and address issues pertaining to the Atlantic Ocean itself. Third, the EU and the US must also engage the “Asian hemisphere” countries on “Atlantic hemisphere” issues as Asia pivots to the Atlantic.
-Within the framework of a wider Atlantic Space, Atlantic Africa represents a difficult and conflicted region characterised by a confluence of strategic interests deriving from its natural resources (tropical wood, gas, oil, uranium, fish, etc.) and its geographical location on one of the world’s busiest seaways. Yet, because of multiple security threats that weigh on its internal dynamics, the region appears particularly vulnerable and politically unstable. Aside from the security context, the countries’ uneven economic performance has contributed to destabilising trends in the region as well. As a global actor wishing to ensure both its own security and international stability, the EU is particularly well equipped to intervene effectively in the region. However, the EU’s approach has for years lacked an overall strategy for its engagements in the region, instead being largely empirical and pragmatic in nature.
-A dense network of EU-LAC cooperation contrasts with a lack of strategic visions and the concentration of an all-inclusive agenda. Against the background of Atlantic trends, it is crucial to find a critical balance of EU-LAC cooperation on regionalism and interregionalism, socioeconomic development, security, migration and climate change. The identification of challenges in each sector served to formulate a series of policy recommendations for further progress on relations and the creation of synergies with the Ibero-American and Inter-American systems, particularly on migration and public security.
-The Atlantic Space – comprising the four regions around the Atlantic Ocean, namely North America, Central and South America and the Caribbean, Europe and Africa – is not a region defined by natural borders. Nevertheless, it can be conceptualised as a large geo-strategic space that is characterised by common features and challenges, from which it is possible to derive a number of linked-up dynamics and emerging trends. The Atlantic Space is particularly relevant for the EU and can be regarded both as an arena for its international projection and a test bed for its global governance agenda, particularly in regard to the adoption of the EU Global Strategy.
-The Atlantic Space offers an opportunity for greater collaboration between state and non-state actors (from within and outside the Atlantic Space). The EU, as one of the key actors in this space, should contribute by promoting rules and practices through innovative and inclusive approaches. That said, many of the emerging trends presented in this project are global in nature and these EU objectives should be framed within a global strategy.
-In the economic and trade area, the strategic objectives of the EU are equality, development and free trade. Fighting inequality is among the priorities for the EU because of its implications for social cohesion, economic efficiency and political stability. New models of development cooperation are necessary to foster greater prosperity, in light of the increasing role of actors from the South in the Atlantic Space and at global level. Free trade should be an inclusive process and the EU should play an important role in supporting multi-level agreements in the Atlantic aimed at creating new space for free trade without generating insurmountable North-South divisions.
-On security, the main shared challenges in the Atlantic are illicit trafficking, piracy – with particular attention on the Gulf of Guinea – and the protection of critical energy infrastructure.
-In the area of energy and the environment, addressing climate change through carbon emissions reductions, more intensive use of renewables and environmental protection is an absolute priority and global consensus on it is growing. At the same time, sustainable agricultural production and consumption and sustainable fishing are issues to be targeted with an Atlantic dimension.
-Concerning peoples and institutions, social resilience in the Atlantic should be promoted through two main actions: supporting institution-building anchored to human rights and democratic participation, and involving non-state actors in the elaboration of inclusive common agendas in the Atlantic Space.
-The dynamics of fragmentation that have emerged in the Atlantic Space seem to replicate a more general trend in the international community. A more effective system of governance needs to cope with contested rules and structures, which prevent consensus building on many issues in the global agenda. The North-South divide is still a defining feature in power relations among actors at global level and has proved to be one of the shaping factors in intra-Atlantic relations. Building on its commitment to promote effective multilateralism and the experience gained at the United Nations and in other multilateral fora, the EU should devise forward-looking strategies to better engage southern Atlantic countries with a view to endorsing the principles, rules and procedures established in the multilateral institutions.
-EU initiatives could be designed to address specific issues such as implementation and monitoring mechanisms on climate change in the post-COP 21 agreement context and development cooperation in the framework of the 2030 Agenda, or it could focus on coalition building and the reform of global governance, primarily the international financial institutions and the United Nations system. The diplomatic resources of the European External Action Service could be mobilised both in multilateral endeavours and in national capitals to achieve this objective.
Dissemination and outreach (WP11). The ATLANTIC FUTURE project produced several materials that were aimed at the dissemination and outreach of the project:
-A communication and outreach plan was created to highlight the main strategies and tools for the dissemination of the project (deliverable 11.2).
-Two businesses briefs on trade and resources and the environment were produced by the leaders of Work Package 2 (Economy) and Work Package 5 (Resources and the Environment) (deliverable 11.7). These may be found on the ATLANTIC FUTURE website www.atlanticfuture.eu :
▪ Business Brief no.1 “Economic and financial links in the Atlantic Space”
▪ Business Brief no. 2 “Outlook for the Fossil Fuel and renewable energy industries in the Wider Atlantic Space”.
-A volume of CIDOB’s Revista d’Afers Internacionals was dedicated to the Atlantic Space: Revista d’Afers Internacionals, “Rediscovering the Atlantic Space”, 102/103, Barcelona, Spain. The publication of this volume was done on the margins of the project, but was useful for assembling a series of reflections on the Atlantic. Many of the authors are also partners in the project. The publication was produced in Spanish.
-A website (www.atlanticfuture.eu) was created for the project. The project’s website has been one of the main tools of the dissemination of the project. It is dynamic, user-friendly, and up to date. The website contains materials, results and information related to the project and the research.
-Design and printing of ATLANTIC FUTURE leaflets. These were distributed at events related to the project as well as to stakeholders when relevant.
-Two promotional videos about the project were produced and are available on the project’s website and on YouTube: “The Atlantic future” and “What comes to mind when you think of the Atlantic?”. The audio of the second video was translated into the main languages of the Atlantic:
▪ English: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0jNydVdLao
▪ Spanish: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoayFsiqT74&feature=youtu.be
▪ Portuguese: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYNzvzAXjO8&feature=youtu.be
▪ French: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3sI3AyTMdc&feature=youtu.be
▪ Arabic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gfCMYEd-PA
-The ATLANTIC 500 virtual community of policymakers, opinion leaders, private economic actors and NGOs was created to connect all the interviewees selected for the project’s fieldwork through a web-based platform linked to the project (deliverable 11.8). LinkedIn and Facebook were the virtual platforms chosen for this endeavour because of their proven success in meeting different users’ social media preferences, while offering familiar, professional, user-friendly interfaces. Both the LinkedIn and Facebook groups are private, meaning that only members of the group can see the content and discussions shared and that only select, approved members may join. The ATLANTIC 500 platforms may be found at Atlantic 500 LinkedIn group and Atlantic 500 Facebook group. All the papers and main findings of the project were shared on both sites, and CIDOB and Ecologic Institute have sought to dynamise the two platforms through the development of:
- Discussions: the project encouraged regular and dynamic discussions on a wide variety of Atlantic topics. The moderators (CIDOB and Ecologic Institute) and partners from the whole Consortium tried to start new discussions and introduce new topics.
- Atlantic Voices: a great deal of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project’s value is the excellent team that it brought together. The project, therefore, sought to take advantage of this and created a section called “Atlantic Voices”, which contains short interviews with project partners about international events and their areas of expertise. These interviews may be found on the ATLANTIC 500 platforms, the project’s website (http://www.atlanticfuture.eu) and its social networks:
oAtlantic Voices # 1 with Jordi Vaquer
oAtlantic Voices # 2 with Andreas Kraemer
oAtlantic voices # 3 with Driss Ksikes.
- Google Hangouts: project partners were invited to give a virtual conference on the key areas of study in the ATLANTIC FUTURE project or on international issues. These Google Hangouts may be found on the ATLANTIC 500 platforms, the project’s website (http://www.atlanticfuture.eu) social network pages and YouTube channel:
oWebinar: TTIP and the wider Atlantic with Dan Hamilton, Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at SAIS at Johns Hopkins University
oWebinar on regionalisms across the Atlantic with Frank Mattheis, Senior Researcher at the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation at the University of Pretoria, and Atlantic Future partner.
- Interviews with experts and policymakers: taking advantage of the access to experts and policymakers, ATLANTIC FUTURE partners recorded short video interviews with the experts on their views of the possible emergence of an Atlantic Space. These videos may be found on the project’s website and YouTube channel:
oInterview with Federico Bonaglia, Senior Counsellor to the Director at the OECD Development Centre
oInterview with Dorval Brunelle, Director of the Institute of International Studies of Montreal (IEIM) at University du Quebec a Montreal, and member of the Scientific Advisory Panel of Atlantic Future
oInterview with Karim El Aynaoui, Managing Director of the OCP Policy Center and member of the Scientific Advisory Panel of Atlantic Future
oInterview with Yabi Gilles, Founder of The Citizen Think Tank for West Africa (WATHI) and former West Africa Director of International Crisis Group
oInterview with Nicholas Westcott, Managing Director for Africa, European External Action Service (EEAS).
- A Twitter account was created (@AtlanticFuture). It currently has more than 900 followers. The project’s Twitter account has been a dynamic dissemination tool that has allowed the project to engage with relevant stakeholders, disseminate materials either produced by the project or external to the project but related to the research.
- A Facebook page was created (FP7 Atlantic Future). It includes content from the project’s website. The Facebook page is not used as one of the main dissemination tools.
- An ATLANTIC FUTURE project newsletter was designed and published periodically as results became available. Since most of the results of the project were obtained at the end of the project, CIDOB, as Project Coordinator, will continue to support the dissemination of the final outcomes of the project over the coming months.
Besides these materials, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project organised several project meetings, dissemination events and attended various conferences and congresses with the aim of disseminating the outcomes of the project and the project itself.
ATLANTIC FUTURE plenary meetings and events:
- Kick-off Meeting of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project in Barcelona, Spain (March 2013). The meeting was hosted by CIDOB, coordinator of ATLANTIC FUTURE, and the following partners attended: AU, ECOLOGIC, FRIDE, HEM, IPRI and GMF.
- “Climate change in the Atlantic Basin” seminar, organised by Ecologic Institute and the Center for Transatlantic Relations (CTR) at Johns Hopkins University SAIS (April 2013). Daniel Hamilton and R. Andreas Kraemer presented the ATLANTIC FUTURE project and expert panellists discussed Atlantic-specific aspects of climate change impacts, challenges and governance. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- “A new look into the Atlantic”, an event organised by CIDOB in Barcelona, Spain (June 2013). CIDOB hosted the event to present the ATLANTIC FUTURE project before a selected local audience that included journalists, representatives of the ATLANTIC FUTURE consortium and academia. The main speaker was Dorval Brunelle, director of the Institute of International Studies of Montreal (IEIM) and member of the project’s Scientific and Advisory Panel. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- “The Arab world and the Atlantic Space”, organised by HEM in Rabat, Morocco (October 2013). This conference was chaired by Driss Ksikes (Director of CESEM, HEM) with a panel of five speakers: Abderrahmane Hadj Nacer, economist and former governor of the Central Bank of Algeria; Bichara Khader, Professor at UCL, Belgium; Karim El Aynaoui, Senior Researcher at the OCP Policy Center; Alfredo Valladao, Senior Researcher at HEM; and Jordi Vaquer, Senior Associate of CIDOB and (then) Scientific Coordinator of ATLANTIC FUTURE. A plenary meeting of the project was held during this event. The meeting was hosted by HEM and was attended by all partners, as well as some members of the Scientific and Advisory Panel. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- “America in the Atlantic Space” conference organised by CIDE in Mexico City in February 2014. The main speaker was José Miguel Insulza, Secretary General of the Organisation of American States (OAS). The following partners attended: CIDOB, AU, ECOLOGIC, FGV, HEM and JHU. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- Two roundtables - “The Atlantic in a changing world: emerging economic, political and social relations” and “What role for Africa in a new Atlantic area?” - were organised by the University of Pretoria, in Pretoria, South Africa (June 2014). The first roundtable was composed of the following experts: Francis Kornegay (Senior Research Fellow at The Institute for Global Dialogue), Sonia Lucarelli (Professor at the University of Bologna), R. Andreas Kraemer (ATLANTIC FUTURE, director of Ecologic Institute), Claudia Sánchez Bajo (PhD in Development Studies at the ISS in The Hague, and Chair in Cooperative Enterprises), Antonio Fiori (Korea Foundation Endowment Chair at the University of Bologna) and Jordi Vaquer (ATLANTIC FUTURE, former director of CIDOB and current director of the Open Society Initiative for Europe); the second roundtable was composed of the following experts: Jakkie Cilliers (Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies), Andrew Grant (Professor at Queen’s University, Canada), Catherine Grant (South African Institute of International Affairs), Garth Le Pere (University of Pretoria) and Brenan Vickers (Institute for Global Dialogue). Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- The second plenary meeting of the project took place in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) in October 2014 (MS8). It included an open seminar on “The Atlantic Basin as a security area?” and closed with a public event for young researchers in which project researchers introduced the concept of the Atlantic as a unit of analysis and the idea of the emergence of an Atlantic Space. The meeting was hosted by the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) and was attended by all partners, as well as some members of the Scientific and Advisory Panel. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- The briefing “The Atlantic: drivers of change” was organised by CIDOB with the help of The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE) for EU representatives and the think tank community in Brussels (February 2015) (MS7). Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- The third and last plenary meeting of the project was held in Lisbon, Portugal, in April of 2015 (MS11). The Instituto Português de Relações Internacionais-UNL (IPRI) organised this meeting. It opened with a roundtable called “Setting the Grounds for a New Understanding of the Atlantic” and closed with a lunch-seminar for young researchers on “The Future of the Atlantic: Common dynamics or different paths?”. This meeting benefitted from the participation of Ms. Eva M. Troya Blanco, from the European Commission’s Service for Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI). Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- A one morning seminar on “Brazil and the Future of the Atlantic: Challenges and opportunities” was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (November 2015). CIDOB and Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) organised the seminar with the final aim of disseminating the main findings of WP1, WP6, WP7 and WP9. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- Johns Hopkins University and Ecologic Institute organised the ATLANTIC FUTURE meeting “The Future of the Atlantic Hemisphere” in Washington D.C USA (December 2015). The conference opened with the unveiling of the Atlas of the Atlantic, a multi-year project under ATLANTIC FUTURE. Then speakers from the ATLANTIC FUTURE spoke about key themes addressed by the project, such as: energy, commerce, security and values. For more information of this event please visit the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- The final dissemination event “A transformed Atlantic Space: Emerging trends and future scenarios for Europe” was organised by CIDOB in collaboration with most of the other partners in the Consortium. This meeting presented the Atlas of the Atlantic (WP6), the future scenarios of the Atlantic 2025 (WP9) and policy recommendations to EU representatives about how the EU should engage with the Atlantic region. The meeting took place in Brussels at the Center for European Studies (CESP) in December 2015. For this meeting we benefitted from the presence of the Project Officer, Anne Nielsen. Information about this event may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.eu.
- 5 training seminars for young researchers were organised throughout the project: “The Emerging Leaders Working Lunch: an Atlantic future” in Morocco, the “Atlantic Seminar for Young Researchers” in Mexico, the “Atlantic Working Lunch with UP Young Innovators” in South Africa, “The Atlantic as a unit of analysis: towards an Atlantic Future?” in Brazil, and “The Future of the Atlantic: Common dynamics or different paths?” in Portugal.
▪ Participation in conferences (by invitation or submission and acceptance)
- Members of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project attended the conference of the Latin American Studies Association (LASA) in Washington DC in May 2013 to disseminate the project. The LASA conference was deemed to be of interest to ATLANTIC FUTURE given the geographical focus on Latin America. The trip also included a meeting between several partners (CIDOB, CIDE and JHU) to discuss details regarding the data compilation going on in the project.
- ATLANTIC FUTURE held a panel entitled “Governing Global Challenges in the Atlantic” at the General Conference of the European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI) in Bonn, Germany on 26 June 2014. The panel included the presentation of two papers produced within the framework of the project by the partners ECOLOGIC and GMF.
- Meetings in Madrid (Spain) between the Project Manager Laia Tarragona with selected stakeholders in the Atlantic. In particular, a meeting was held with Mr Pablo Casado, member of the Spanish parliament (Popular Party), while another was held with researchers in the economic and Latin American areas of the Real Instituto Elcano think tank. At both meetings, the project was presented and ideas on the Atlantic were exchanged. Both Mr Casado and the researchers at Real Instituto Elcano showed strong interest in the project.
- Meeting in Brussels with the Bureau of European Policy Advisors (BEPA) and DG Research and Innovation on 27 March 2014. CIDOB’s team presented the progress made on ATLANTIC FUTURE to Mr Vasco Cal (BEPA), Mr Simon Schunz and Mr Robert Burmanjer (DG Research and Innovation).
- Participation of Susanne Gratius, FRIDE, as ATLANTIC FUTURE partner at the conference “Research meets diplomacy: Europe as a Global Actor” within the project Flash-it, to speak of the evolution of EU-LAC relations in a multipolar world (June 2014).
- Paula de Castro (CIDOB) attended “The Atlantic stakeholder’s conference” organised by the European Commission in Porto, Portugal (January 2015) with the aim of disseminating the project.
- Frank Mattheis from the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation at the University of Pretoria (UP) attended the annual convention of the International Studies Association (ISA) entitled “Global IR and Regional Words: A New Agenda for International Studies”, in New Orleans, USA (February 2015). During this conference Frank Mattheis disseminated the results of WP8. The report of this conference may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.com.
- Frank Mattheis from the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation at the University of Pretoria (UP) and Gian Luca Gardini, from the Friedrich-Alexander Universitat Erlanger Nurnberg, attended the 9th Pan-European Conference on International Relations (EISA) in Catania, Italy (September 2015). During this conference the researchers disseminated the results of WP7 and WP8. The report of this conference may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.com.
- Frank Mattheis from the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation at the University of Pretoria (UP) attended the conference “World Regions Compared” organised by the German Political Science Association (DPWV) and the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg, Germany (February 2015). During this conference Frank Mattheis disseminated the results of WP8. The report on this conference may be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.com.
- Frank Mattheis from the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation at the University of Pretoria (UP) attended the EUSA Fourteenth Biennial Conference of the European Union Studies Association in Boston, USA (March 2015). During this conference Frank Mattheis disseminated the results of WP8. The report of this conference can be found on the project’s website: www.atlanticfuture.com.
- Laia Tarragona and Paula de Castro from CIDOB and Susanne Gratius from FRIDE attended the “I International Conference Atlantic Communities Translation, Mobility, Hospitality” in Vigo, Spain (September 2015). During this conference, members of the project disseminated the results of WP1, WP7 and WP9.
- Lorena Ruano, Mark Aspinwall from CIDE and Jordi Bacaria and Oriol Farrés from CIDOB attended the “29th Annual Congress of the Mexican Association of International Studies (AMEI)”, Cancun, Mexico (October 2015). During this conference members of the project disseminated the results of WP1, WP2 and WP6.
- HEM - CESEM organised a roundtable about on “The role of Morocco in a new Atlantic order” in Rabat, Morocco (October 2015).
- The German Marshall Fund and HEM – CESEM organised an ATLANTIC FUTURE breakfast in the framework of The Atlantic Dialogues in Marrakech, Morocco (October 2015) at which results from WP1, WP3, WP5, WP7 and WP9 were presented.
Project Results:
▪The potential impact of the project’s results
The research carried out in the ATLANTIC FUTURE project has the potential to fill a significant gap in the field of study of the Atlantic as a whole, which is an approach that is almost absent from contemporary social science, which has traditionally focused only on North-North Atlantic relations. ATLANTIC FUTURE has contributed to building the scientific foundations in this area with the delivery and publication of: 39 scientific papers, 18 interview reports, three policy papers, three policy briefs, two policy reports, two business briefs and two reports about the “Interactive Atlas of the Atlantic” and the “Changing intra-Atlantic interdependencies: Implications for the EU and its major partners”. Furthermore, the project has assembled new tools that will be of use to the scientific community and policymakers: 1) historical databases that provide sets of data aimed at increasing the understanding of the Atlantic and its transformation; and 2) an Atlas of the Atlantic that offers a visual representation of the linkages connecting the peoples of North and South America, Europe and Africa in terms of key issues (migration, energy, goods, services, ideas, money, drugs, etc.), with the added value that it may also be used to compare the dynamics of the Atlantic hemisphere and the Asian hemisphere.
In terms of socioeconomic impact and wider societal implications, the project provides new analysis and data to stakeholders and institutions across the Atlantic Space, which may use the new information to take decisions that best fit the transformation the Atlantic Space is undergoing. Likewise, the project contributes to strengthening epistemic communities across the Atlantic. The project has helped to link institutions between key countries and key stakeholders (e.g. members of the project’s Scientific and Advisory Panel) across the Atlantic. Moreover, the project has created the virtual platform of the ATLANTIC 500 in which leaders of the Atlantic could boost the creation of this Atlantic epistemic community. Similarly, the project has contributed with other initiatives such as the Atlantic Dialogues (organised by the partner institution The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF)) and the Atlantic Initiative (at CTR of the Johns Hopkins University (JHU)) and other projects that were of interest such as FP7 Transworld and FP7 T-A Platform. Finally, the dissemination and outreach activities of the project such as public events, seminars, meetings with stakeholders and activities directed to students or young leaders made a significant contribution to raising awareness on Atlantic-related issues and to strengthening the epistemic communities.
Proof of the interest that stakeholders and the Atlantic community have in the Atlantic is the use of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project as a source of new initiatives, new projects and as a base from which academic research and policy analysis can be boosted. Examples of this are the European Commission’s publication of “A Global actor in search of a strategy: European Union foreign policy between multilateralism and bilateralism” and the fact that ATLANTIC FUTURE has been listed as one of the projects of reference on which other calls for projects of the European Commission can be built. An example of this is the “Cooperation with Northern and Southern Transatlantic Dimension-Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)” (FWC COM 2011 –LOT 1) project. In other cases, the experience of ATLANTIC FUTURE has been considered by financial institutions to be an asset and an example of good practices valued in competitive calls for projects.
▪A plan for use and dissemination of foreground according to the type of audience targeted by the project
Academia. Academia has been and will continue to be one of the primary audiences targeted by the project. This includes the scientific and research community in the disciplines of International Relations, International Political Economy, Economics, and Geography. Outreach towards academia will continue to be made, where possible, through the following communication instruments or channels:
•Continuous dissemination of the project’s results through the project website;
•Publications in academic journals;
•Presentation of the main project findings on panels at public conferences related to Atlantic studies;
•Dissemination of the final monograph of the project and the Atlas of the Atlantic.
Furthermore, partners in the Consortium will ensure that the results of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project are made available to the scientific and research communities through the websites of each institution and open access repositories such as the Community Research and Development Information Services (CORDIS) tools that the European Commission has at its disposal.
Policymakers. Policymakers have been and will continue to be one of the primary targets of the project. They include policy- and decision-makers at national, regional and international levels:
•National level: Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Home Affairs or Environment, or diplomats from the countries of the Atlantic.
•Regional level: policy officers from the European Commission, EEAS, members and senior officials of the European Parliament (in particular, the Committee on Foreign Affairs, the EuroLat delegation, the EU-US delegation), Council officials.
•International level: officers within international organisations such as the United Nations, OECD, WTO, and other institutions that focus on the thematic issues in ATLANTIC FUTURE research (e.g. environment, security, etc.).
One of the goals of the ATLANTIC FUTURE project was to secure the participation of these policymakers in the project’s activities. From now on, each institution will try to forge the relations with the policymakers contacted through the project and to explore possible ways for future collaboration on a content and institutional level to secure the dissemination of the project’s main findings. For this endeavour, ATLANTIC FUTURE will use the following tools, where possible, to reach out policymakers:
•Continuous dissemination of the project’s results through the project website;
•Continuous dissemination of the project’s results at meetings and conferences related to Atlantic studies in which the participation of policymakers is relevant;
•Dissemination of the policy briefs produced by the project;
•Dissemination of the Atlas of the Atlantic at the EU premises;
•Dialogue with stakeholders through the ATLANTIC 500, as many of the participants in the platform are policymakers.
Business. For the ATLANTIC FUTURE project, the business audience was composed of private actors such as industries and companies that have interests in other regions of the Atlantic Space or that are directly affected by the thematic focus of the research. The aim of the project’s business strategy was to engage such private actors in all phases of the project and share the results with the business community at large. Partners in the ATLANTIC FUTURE project will continue to use, where possible, the following tools to reach the business community:
•Continuous dissemination of the project’s results through the project website;
•Dissemination of targeted products such as the business briefs;
•Dissemination of the final monograph and the Atlas of the Atlantic;
•Dialogue with stakeholders through the ATLANTIC 500, as many of the participants in the platform are members of the business community.
Media and Opinion Leaders. The media and opinion leaders were also one of audiences targeted by the ATLANTIC FUTURE project. They included the media, the wider think tank community and civil society. ATLANTIC FUTURE connected with this audience by selecting media-worthy materials and disseminating the results amongst opinion leaders. Project partners will continue to use, where possible, the following tools to disseminate the main results of the project to the media and opinion leaders:
•Continuous dissemination of the project’s results through the project website;
•Dissemination of the final monograph and the Atlas of the Atlantic;
•Dialogue with stakeholders through the ATLANTIC 500, as some of the members of the platform are from the media and civil society;
•Dissemination of the animation and promotional videos created throughout the project.
Potential Impact:
The address of the project’s public website is: www.atlanticfuture.eu
The addresses of the project’s social networks are:
•Twitter account (@AtlanticFuture): https://twitter.com/AtlanticFuture
•Facebook page (FP7 Atlantic Future): https://www.facebook.com/Fp7-Atlantic-Future-513622615354224/
•YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDglVlWdsqnQR0eoy0oaAIga
ATLANTIC 500 virtual platforms:
•Atlantic 500 LinkedIn group: https://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=8230809&trk=vsrp_groups_res_name&trkInfo=VSRPsearchId%3A857221691422205228576%2CVSRPtargetId%3A8230809%2CVSRPcmpt%3Aprimary
•Atlantic 500 Facebook group:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1531424837131600/.
List of Websites:
Ethics review of the project:
As stated in Annex I of the Grant Agreement, the ATLANTIC FUTURE project was carried out in line with Directive no. 95/46/EC of the European Parliament and the Council on the protection of individuals with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data. The following principles were paramount for the good development of the project and, in particular, during the project’s fieldwork:
-Responsibility: the management structure assigned clear responsibility for the research activities and their results.
-Objectivity: the choice of research objects was made in an objective and scholarly way, taking into account any potentially harmful social and individual effects.
-Scientific deontology: all the rules that guarantee the scientific soundness of the project’s work were implemented throughout the research and its publication, in particular, those relating to copyright and proper citation of all materials used.
-Voluntary participation and informed consent: during the fieldwork specific guidelines were prepared by the Project Coordinator to ensure that partners involved in the fieldwork complied with the requisite personal data protection rules. These guidelines consisted of a series of general principles and quotations and attribution rules as follows:
•General Principles: as agreed and established in the Grant Agreement signed with the European Commission in the Seventh Framework Programme (no. 320091), the ATLANTIC FUTURE project committed to disclosing to the general public the sources of the information in its research activities to the maximum extent possible. The ATLANTIC FUTURE project sought to ensure that the fieldwork reported to the scientific community and the European authorities was as transparent as possible, informing them of how and where we got our information. For this, the project considered that it was paramount that researchers were honest and fair in gathering, reporting and interpreting information. For the project it was important that researchers who pledged confidentiality to a source did not violate that pledge.
Quotations and attribution rules:
-Interview reports did not attribute information that could lead to the identification of interviewees.
-Interview reports were anonymous under the formula of a code that helped to anonymise the information according to the area of expertise and professional sector.
-Project partners committed to keeping a confidential list with the information linking interviewees with their remarks, with the commitment to use it only internally.
-Some interviews were recorded with the interviewees’ permission. However, recorded interviews were not allowed to be made public and should be either destroyed or kept only for the researcher her/himself.
-When a source’s words were placed inside quotation marks, those exact words were uttered in precisely that form.
-Quotations attacking a named person or institution in pejorative terms were not permitted to be made public.
-When quoting interviewees for whom English was not their first language, special care was taken.
-Transparency: the results of the research have been made fully available to informants who participated in the research.
-Accountability: research materials are being preserved in a way that ensures accountability.
-Interculturality: ATLANTIC FUTURE operated in a heterogeneous cultural environment, bringing together researchers from 13 countries. Care was always taken to respect local, regional and national cultures. The specificity of ethnic and religious identities was always treated with sensitivity and respect, and integrated into the research plans.