Objective
The general objective of this project is to improve economic forecasts with evolutionary econometric models, i.e. models that adapt to structural changes in the economic environment. They are also called change-point models. The need for these adaptive models is obvious in the light of the current economic downturn.
Economic forecasting is essential for decision making with respect to fiscal and monetary policy, public spending, and investment. The three research objectives are theoretical and empirical. First, we will study and develop change-point models for time series. In fact, it is crucial to understand why and which change-point models seem to forecast well. Second, we will develop efficient Bayesian inference methods and software. Finally, we will provide a large variety of forecasting applications using European macroeconomic and financial data. To transfer knowledge to a forecasters, software and explanations to implement the models will be made available via a website.
The contributions of this proposal will be substantial for academic researchers, and users of forecasting models in the public sector (for example the EU Commission, the European Central Bank, and national institutions) and the private sector. A better understanding of the economic and financial system together with more reliable forecasts of its variables should help the conduct of finer public policies and the design of more efficient and reliable financial markets. This is especially important in view of the changes likely to be triggered by the current economic depression. The output of this proposal will be reported in the best academic journals of the field.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- social sciences political sciences political policies public policies
- natural sciences computer and information sciences software
- natural sciences mathematics applied mathematics statistics and probability bayesian statistics
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Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
FP7-PEOPLE-2013-CIG
See other projects for this call
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
MC-CIG - Support for training and career development of researcher (CIG)
Coordinator
95021 Cergy Pontoise Cedex
France
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.