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Prediction of Geospace Radiation Environment and solar wind parameters

Deliverables

Dst and Kp Models

This report will contain details of the development and performance of models for the geomagnetic indices Kp and Dst based on the bilinear (USFD) and Guaranteed NARMAX (SRI) methodologies.

Use of data assimilation technique within VERB code model

This deliverable, in the form of a journal paper, ready for submission, discusses the results of the incorporation of data assimilation technique into the VERB model and two methods of model couplings

Forecasts of the energetic electron populations within the inner magnetosphere

This report discusses the implementation and use of web page displaying forecasts of the energetic electron populations within the inner magnetosphere.

The database of wave occurrence.

This report describes the organisation of the database to store information regarding the occurrence of the various modes of plasma wave activity.

The VERB-IMPTAM low energy seed population

This report will discuss the coupling of the VERB and IMPTAM models so that low energy seed population from IMPTAM is used to initialise the VERB radiation belt model for high energy electrons.

Solar wind drivers of low energy plasmasheet electrons

This deliverable consists of a journal paper, ready for submission, discussing the solar wind and IMF driven model for low energy electrons in the plasma sheet

On orbit forecasts of the energetic electron populations

This report discusses the implementation and use of web page displaying forecasts of the energetic electron populations along a user selected satellite orbit

The coupling of the AWSoM and SWIFT codes

This report outlines the process of coupling the AWSoM and SWIFT codes.

Conversion of SWIFT to spherical geometry

This report outlines the process by which the SWIFT code is converted to use a spherical geometry.

The results of individual forecasts of geomagnetic indices

This report and accompanying web pages outlines the implementation and display of individual forecasts of geomagnetic indices

Existing Dst, Kp, and AEmodels

This report provides a survey of the currently existing models for the geomagnetic indices Dst, Kp, and AE that are used for forecasts at the beginning of the Project.

Exploitation and Dissemination Plan

This deliverable outlines the methods used by the project for the dissemination and exploitation of the results gained during the Project.

NARMAX models of electron fluxes sat GEO

This deliverable consists of a journal paper, ready for submission, discussing a set of NARMAX models for the fluxes of electrons at GEO for various energy ranges.

Summary of the space weather environment

This report discusses the implementation and interpretation of a set of web pages that summarise the forecasts of the short term evolution of the space weather environment and the dissemination of this information to stakeholders.

Real-time model implementation

This report will present details of the real time online operation of the Dst, Kp, and AE models.

Collection of data sets

This report provides details regarding the collection of historical data sets that are required by the Dst, Kp, and AE models as well as the actual indices themselves for comparison with the model output.

AE models

This report outlines the development and results of new models for the AE index.

Kp and Dst models

This report will discuss the further developments to existing Dst and Kp models.

SWIFT documentation

This deliverable will provide full user and developer documentation plus regression test suite for the SWIFT code developed within Project PROGRESS.

Data availability and list of chosen locations for each wave emission

This report outlines the availability of data sets that will be used to construct the wave models and provide a list of the chosen locations at which the models are evaluated for each wave emission.

Model verification

This report outlines the results of the verification of the models previously identified in Task 3.1 using the data collected in Task 3.2 using various methodologies.

Results of the VNC model and two methods of model couplings

This deliverable, a journal paper ready for submission, discusses the results of the two coupling methods used in the VNC model.

The incorporation of diffusion coefficients from VERB into IMPTAM

This deliverable consists of a journal paper, ready for submission, discussing the results of incorporating of diffusion coefficients from VERB into IMPTAM

Results of the Error Reduction Ratio analysis

This deliverable is a journal paper ready for submission on the results of the Error Reduction Ratio analysis.

Trial version of forecast model for low energy electrons

Report on the trial version of forecast model for low energy electrons

Final version of the statistical wave models

This deliverable consists of the final version of the statistical wave models

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Publications

Signatures of Ultrarelativistic Electron Loss in the Heart of the Outer Radiation Belt Measured by Van Allen Probes

Author(s): N. A. Aseev, Y. Y. Shprits, A. Y. Drozdov, A. C. Kellerman, M. E. Usanova, D. Wang, I. S. Zhelavskaya
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue Volume 122, 2017, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024485

A new maximum relevance-minimum multicollinearity (MRmMC) method for feature selection and ranking

Author(s): Azlyna Senawi, Hua-Liang Wei, Stephen A. Billings
Published in: Pattern Recognition, Issue 67, 2017, Page(s) 47-61, ISSN 0031-3203
DOI: 10.1016/j.patcog.2017.01.026

Eruptive event generator based on the Gibson-Low magnetic configuration

Author(s): D. Borovikov, I. V. Sokolov, W. B. Manchester, M. Jin, T. I. Gombosi
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 122/8, 2017, Page(s) 7979-7984, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024304

Scattering of Ultra-relativistic Electrons in the Van Allen Radiation Belts Accounting for Hot Plasma Effects

Author(s): Xing Cao, Yuri Y. Shprits, Binbin Ni, Irina S. Zhelavskaya
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 7/1, 2017, ISSN 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-17739-7

A robust model structure selection method for small sample size and multiple datasets problems

Author(s): Yuanlin Gu, Hua-Liang Wei
Published in: Information Sciences, Issue 451-452, 2018, Page(s) 195-209, ISSN 0020-0255
DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2018.04.007

Contrasting dynamics of electrons and protons in the near-Earth plasma sheet during dipolarization

Author(s): Andrey Y. Malykhin, Elena E. Grigorenko, Elena A. Kronberg, Rositza Koleva, Natalia Y. Ganushkina, Ludmila Kozak, Patrick W. Daly
Published in: Annales Geophysicae, Issue 36/3, 2018, Page(s) 741-760, ISSN 1432-0576
DOI: 10.5194/angeo-36-741-2018

Intense Current Structures Observed at Electron Kinetic Scales in the Near-Earth Magnetotail During Dipolarization and Substorm Current Wedge Formation

Author(s): E. E. Grigorenko, S. Dubyagin, A. Yu. Malykhin, Yu V. Khotyaintsev, E. A. Kronberg, B. Lavraud, N. Yu Ganushkina
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 45/2, 2018, Page(s) 602-611, ISSN 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076303

Relations Between v z and B x Components in Solar Wind and their Effect on Substorm Onset

Author(s): Marina Kubyshkina, Vladimir Semenov, Nikolay Erkaev, Evgeny Gordeev, Stepan Dubyagin, Natalia Ganushkina, Maria Shukhtina
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 45/9, 2018, Page(s) 3760-3767, ISSN 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076268

Current Systems in the Earth's Magnetosphere

Author(s): N. Yu. Ganushkina, M. W. Liemohn, S. Dubyagin
Published in: Reviews of Geophysics, Issue 56/2, 2018, Page(s) 309-332, ISSN 8755-1209
DOI: 10.1002/2017RG000590

Dependence of radiation belt simulations to assumed radial diffusion rates tested for two empirical models of radial transport

Author(s): A. Y. Drozdov, Y. Y. Shprits, N. A. Aseev, A. C. Kellerman, G. D. Reeves
Published in: Space Weather, Issue 15/1, 2017, Page(s) 150-162, ISSN 1542-7390
DOI: 10.1002/2016SW001426

SWMF Global Magnetosphere Simulations of January 2005: Geomagnetic Indices and Cross-Polar Cap Potential

Author(s): John D. Haiducek, Daniel T. Welling, Natalia Y. Ganushkina, Steven K. Morley, Dogacan Su Ozturk
Published in: Space Weather, Issue 15/12, 2017, Page(s) 1567-1587, ISSN 1542-7390
DOI: 10.1002/2017SW001695

Forecasting Kp from solar wind data: input parameter study using 3-hour averages and 3-hour range values

Author(s): Peter Wintoft, Magnus Wik, Jürgen Matzka, Yuri Shprits
Published in: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, Issue 7, 2017, Page(s) A29, ISSN 2115-7251
DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2017027

Inner magnetosphere coupling: Recent advances

Author(s): M. E. Usanova, Y. Y. Shprits
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 122/1, 2017, Page(s) 102-104, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2016JA023614

Hot Plasma Effects on the Cyclotron-Resonant Pitch-Angle Scattering Rates of Radiation Belt Electrons Due to EMIC Waves

Author(s): Binbin Ni, Xing Cao, Yuri Y. Shprits, Danny Summers, Xudong Gu, Song Fu, Yuequn Lou
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 45/1, 2018, Page(s) 21-30, ISSN 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076028

Impact of space weather on the satellite industry

Author(s): J. C. Green, J. Likar, Yuri Shprits
Published in: Space Weather, Issue 15/6, 2017, Page(s) 804-818, ISSN 1542-7390
DOI: 10.1002/2017SW001646

Electron Fluxes at Geostationary Orbit From GOES MAGED Data

Author(s): Ilkka Sillanpää, N. Yu. Ganushkina, S. Dubyagin, J. V. Rodriguez
Published in: Space Weather, Issue 15/12, 2017, Page(s) 1602-1614, ISSN 1542-7390
DOI: 10.1002/2017SW001698

EMIC wave parameterization in the long-term VERB code simulation

Author(s): A. Y. Drozdov, Y. Y. Shprits, M. E. Usanova, N. A. Aseev, A. C. Kellerman, H. Zhu
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 122/8, 2017, Page(s) 8488-8501, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024389

Formation of 30 KeV Proton Isotropic Boundaries During Geomagnetic Storms

Author(s): S. Dubyagin, N. Yu. Ganushkina, V. Sergeev
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 123/5, 2018, Page(s) 3436-3459, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024587

Is the Dst Index Sufficient to Define All Geospace Storms?

Author(s): Joseph E. Borovsky, Yuri Y. Shprits
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 122/11, 2017, Page(s) 11,543-11,547, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024679

Electron Flux Dropouts at L ∼ 4.2 From Global Positioning System Satellites: Occurrences, Magnitudes, and Main Driving Factors

Author(s): R. J. Boynton, D. Mourenas, M. A. Balikhin
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 122/11, 2017, Page(s) 11,428-11,441, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024523

Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

Author(s): Natalia Ganushkina, Allison Jaynes, Michael Liemohn
Published in: Space Science Reviews, Issue 212/3-4, 2017, Page(s) 1315-1344, ISSN 0038-6308
DOI: 10.1007/s11214-017-0412-2

Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics Using Neural Networks

Author(s): Irina S. Zhelavskaya, Yuri Y. Shprits, Maria Spasojević
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 122/11, 2017, Page(s) 11,227-11,244, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024406

A novel logistic-NARX model as a classifier for dynamic binary classification

Author(s): Jose Roberto Ayala Solares, Hua-Liang Wei, Stephen A. Billings
Published in: Neural Computing and Applications, 2017, ISSN 0941-0643
DOI: 10.1007/s00521-017-2976-x

Strong whistler mode waves observed in the vicinity of Jupiter’s moons

Author(s): Y. Y. Shprits, J. D. Menietti, A. Y. Drozdov, R. B. Horne, E. E. Woodfield, J. B. Groene, M. de Soria-Santacruz, T. F. Averkamp, H. Garrett, C. Paranicas, D. A. Gurnett
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 9/1, 2018, ISSN 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05431-x

Cluster observations of non-time continuous magnetosonic waves

Author(s): Simon N. Walker, Andrei G. Demekhov, Scott A. Boardsen, Natalia Y. Ganushkina, David G. Sibeck, Michael A. Balikhin
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 2016, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2016JA023287

Modeling and prediction of global magnetic disturbance in near-Earth space: A case study for K p index using NARX models

Author(s): Jose Roberto Ayala Solares, Hua-Liang Wei, R. J. Boynton, Simon N. Walker, Stephen A. Billings
Published in: Space Weather, Issue 14/10, 2016, Page(s) 899-916, ISSN 1542-7390
DOI: 10.1002/2016SW001463

Challenges associated with near-Earth nightside current

Author(s): Michael W. Liemohn, Natalia Y. Ganushkina, Raluca Ilie, Daniel T. Welling
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 121/7, 2016, Page(s) 6763-6768, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2016JA022948

Solar wind-driven variations of electron plasma sheet densities and temperatures beyond geostationary orbit during storm times

Author(s): S. Dubyagin, N. Yu. Ganushkina, I. Sillanpää, A. Runov
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 121/9, 2016, Page(s) 8343-8360, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2016JA022947

Origin of low proton-to-electron temperature ratio in the Earth's plasma sheet

Author(s): E. E. Grigorenko, E. A. Kronberg, P. W. Daly, N. Yu. Ganushkina, B. Lavraud, J.-A. Sauvaud, L. M. Zelenyi
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 121/10, 2016, Page(s) 9985-10,004, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2016JA022874

Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO

Author(s): M. A. Balikhin, J. V. Rodriguez, R. J. Boynton, S. N. Walker, H. Aryan, D. G. Sibeck, S. A. Billings
Published in: Space Weather, Issue 14/1, 2016, Page(s) 22-31, ISSN 1542-7390
DOI: 10.1002/2015SW001303

Scattering of relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons by obliquely propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron waves

Author(s): Bogdan Uzbekov, Yuri Y. Shprits, Ksenia Orlova
Published in: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Issue 148, 2016, Page(s) 22-31, ISSN 1364-6826
DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2016.08.004

Wave-induced loss of ultra-relativistic electrons in the Van Allen radiation belts

Author(s): Yuri Y. Shprits, Alexander Y. Drozdov, Maria Spasojevic, Adam C. Kellerman, Maria E. Usanova, Mark J. Engebretson, Oleksiy V. Agapitov, Irina S. Zhelavskaya, Tero J. Raita, Harlan E. Spence, Daniel N. Baker, Hui Zhu, Nikita A. Aseev
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 7, 2016, Page(s) 12883, ISSN 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12883

Global empirical models of plasmaspheric hiss using Van Allen Probes

Author(s): M. Spasojevic, Y. Y. Shprits, K. Orlova
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 120/12, 2015, Page(s) 10,370-10,383, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2015JA021803

Automated determination of electron density from electric field measurements on the Van Allen Probes spacecraft

Author(s): I. S. Zhelavskaya, M. Spasojevic, Y. Y. Shprits, W. S. Kurth
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 121/5, 2016, Page(s) 4611-4625, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2015JA022132

Electron flux dropouts at Geostationary Earth Orbit: Occurrences, magnitudes, and main driving factors

Author(s): R. J. Boynton, D. Mourenas, M. A. Balikhin
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 121/9, 2016, Page(s) 8448-8461, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2016JA022916

Electron flux models for different energies at geostationary orbit

Author(s): R. J. Boynton, M. A. Balikhin, D. G. Sibeck, S. N. Walker, S. A. Billings, N. Ganushkina
Published in: Space Weather, Issue 14/10, 2016, Page(s) 846-860, ISSN 1542-7390
DOI: 10.1002/2016SW001506

On the time needed to reach an equilibrium structure of the radiation belts

Author(s): J.-F. Ripoll, V. Loridan, G. S. Cunningham, G. D. Reeves, Y. Y. Shprits
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 121/8, 2016, Page(s) 7684-7698, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2015JA022207

A reconstruction method of electron density distribution in the equatorial region of magnetosphere

Author(s): V. Shastun, O. Agapitov
Published in: Advances in Astronomy and Space Physics, Issue 5/2, 2015, Page(s) 104-108, ISSN 2227-1481
DOI: 10.17721/2227-1481.5.104-108

Extended MHD modeling of the steady solar corona and the solar wind

Author(s): Tamas I. Gombosi, Bart van der Holst, Ward B. Manchester, Igor V. Sokolov
Published in: Living Reviews in Solar Physics, Issue 15/1, 2018, ISSN 1614-4961
DOI: 10.1007/s41116-018-0014-4

The Influence of Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Indices on Lower Band Chorus Emissions in the Inner Magnetosphere

Author(s): R. J. Boynton, H. Aryan, S. N. Walker, V. Krasnoselskikh, M. A. Balikhin
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 123/11, 2018, Page(s) 9022-9034, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1029/2018JA025704

Testing the magnetotail configuration based on observations of low-altitude isotropic boundaries during quiet times

Author(s): R. Ilie, N. Ganushkina, G. Toth, S. Dubyagin, M. W. Liemohn
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 120/12, 2015, Page(s) 10,557-10,573, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2015JA021858

Defining and resolving current systems in geospace

Author(s): N. Y. Ganushkina, M. W. Liemohn, S. Dubyagin, I. A. Daglis, I. Dandouras, D. L. De Zeeuw, Y. Ebihara, R. Ilie, R. Katus, M. Kubyshkina, S. E. Milan, S. Ohtani, N. Ostgaard, J. P. Reistad, P. Tenfjord, F. Toffoletto, S. Zaharia, O. Amariutei
Published in: Annales Geophysicae, Issue 33/11, 2015, Page(s) 1369-1402, ISSN 1432-0576
DOI: 10.5194/angeo-33-1369-2015

Combined convective and diffusive simulations: VERB-4D comparison with 17 March 2013 Van Allen Probes observations

Author(s): Yuri Y. Shprits, Adam C. Kellerman, Alexander Y. Drozdov, Harlan E. Spence, Geoffrey D. Reeves, Daniel N. Baker
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 42/22, 2015, Page(s) 9600-9608, ISSN 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065230

Can ring current stabilize magnetotail during steady magnetospheric convection?

Author(s): S. Dubyagin, N. Ganushkina, M. Liemohn, M. Kubyshkina
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 120/12, 2015, Page(s) 10,528-10,542, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2015JA022003

Experimental determination of the dispersion relation of magnetosonic waves

Author(s): S. N. Walker, M. A. Balikhin, D. R. Shklyar, K. H. Yearby, P. Canu, C. M. Carr, I. Dandouras
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 120/11, 2015, Page(s) 9632-9650, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2015JA021746

Observations of discrete harmonics emerging from equatorial noise

Author(s): Michael A. Balikhin, Yuri Y. Shprits, Simon N. Walker, Lunjin Chen, Nicole Cornilleau-Wehrlin, Iannis Dandouras, Ondrej Santolik, Christopher Carr, Keith H. Yearby, Benjamin Weiss
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 6, 2015, Page(s) 7703, ISSN 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8703

Assessing the role of oxygen on ring current formation and evolution through numerical experiments

Author(s): R. Ilie, M. W. Liemohn, G. Toth, N. Yu Ganushkina, L. K. S. Daldorff
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 120/6, 2015, Page(s) 4656-4668, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2015JA021157

CORONAL JETS SIMULATED WITH THE GLOBAL ALFVÉN WAVE SOLAR MODEL

Author(s): J. Szente, G. Toth, W. B. Manchester IV, B. van der Holst, E. Landi, T. I. Gombosi, C. R. DeVore, S. K. Antiochos
Published in: The Astrophysical Journal, Issue 834/2, 2017, Page(s) 123, ISSN 1538-4357
DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/834/2/123

CHROMOSPHERE TO 1 au SIMULATION OF THE 2011 MARCH 7th EVENT: A COMPREHENSIVE STUDY OF CORONAL MASS EJECTION PROPAGATION

Author(s): M. Jin, W. B. Manchester, B. van der Holst, I. Sokolov, G. Tóth, A. Vourlidas, C. A. de Koning, T. I. Gombosi
Published in: The Astrophysical Journal, Issue 834/2, 2017, Page(s) 172, ISSN 1538-4357
DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/834/2/172

Multi-MeV electron loss in the heart of the radiation belts

Author(s): Yuri Y. Shprits, Adam Kellerman, Nikita Aseev, Alexander Y. Drozdov, Ingo Michaelis
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 44/3, 2017, Page(s) 1204-1209, ISSN 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072258

DATA-CONSTRAINED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS IN A GLOBAL MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS MODEL

Author(s): M. Jin, W. B. Manchester, B. van der Holst, I. Sokolov, G. Tóth, R. E. Mullinix, A. Taktakishvili, A. Chulaki, T. I. Gombosi
Published in: The Astrophysical Journal, Issue 834/2, 2017, Page(s) 173, ISSN 1538-4357
DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/834/2/173

Dependence of the amplitude of magnetosonic waves on the solar wind and AE index using Van Allen Probes

Author(s): Kyung-Chan Kim, Yuri Shprits
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Issue 122/6, 2017, Page(s) 6022-6034, ISSN 2169-9380
DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024094

Threaded-Field-Lines Model for the Low Solar Corona Powered by the Alfven Wave Turbulence

Author(s): Sokolov, Igor V.; van der Holst, Bart; Manchester, Ward B.; Ozturk, Doga Can Su; Szente, Judit; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Tóth, Gabor; Jin, Meng; Gombosi, Tamas I.
Published in: Issue 1, 2017

Toward Quantitative Model for Simulation and Forecast of Solar Energetic Particles Production during Gradual Events - I: Magnetohydrodynamic Background Coupled to the SEP Model

Author(s): Borovikov, D.; Sokolov, I. V.; Roussev, I.; Taktakishvili, A.; Gombosi, T. I.
Published in: Issue 1, 2018