Deliverables Documents, reports (14) Addition of plug-in system D4.4 will realize a plug-in mechanism in the FLARECAST framework that will allow users in research and industry to expand and exploit the available prediction services (this plug-in system is a major advancement with respect to the HESPE framework). Addition of new framework functionality (external data ingestion, user management, validation) D4.3 will add three more modular components to FLARECAST framework: a module for ingesting data from external sources, a module for user management and a module for running algorithms that validate FLARECAST prediction performances. Catalogued active region property ingestion algorithm and respective flare association D2.2 will provide software capable of reading active region properties from a variety of existing catalogues, formatting them and storing them in the FLARECAST database. In addition, it will provide software that associates flares with specific active region property measurements over differing time windows. Finalised framework D4.5 will provide the final release of the FLARECAST processing framework, equipped with all functionalities and plug-in system. Data monitoring software D5.3 will provide software capable of determining data quality and continuity. Software framework updated from HESPE functionality D4.1 will provide the FLARECAST processing framework including the databases, data flows and processing components. Some components will rely on HESPE platform but a general schema redesign will be necessary. Report on next generation methods for active region property extraction and flare prediction Report on the tests and validation of next generation algorithms aiming at extracting, from standard observations of active regions, yet unexplored quantities and properties that will improve existing flare prediction scores. Report on findings and suggestions for future efforts in solar eruption prediction Redact summary on the state-of-the-art of research about the trigger of solar eruptions and roadmap for advanced predictions. Improved requirements for flare association and forecasting time windows and latency Determine optimal forecasting time windows and latency time depending on flare properties. Finalised flare prediction algorithms D3.5 will provide a validated and optimized release for each one of the flare prediction algorithms realized in the previous deliverables. Forecast verification software D5.1 will provide software capable of calculating numerous forecast verification metrics to enable appropriate comparison of forecast performance between FLARECAST prediction algorithms and also against external prediction methods. Finalised active region property extraction algorithms, metadata, documentation D2.4 will provide a validated and optimized release of the earlier first release software with updated descriptive documentation. Plan for the exploitation and dissemination of the results A plan for the dissemination and exploitation of project results will be set up listing activities to be carried out during and beyond the duration of the project. Forecast verification error assessment software D5.2 will provide software capable of calculating error/uncertainty estimates on the earlier delivered FLARECAST forecast verification metrics. Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (10) Press and media release (year 2) At the end of month 24, there will be a press and media release of the project in its maturity phase, including also an outlook about the new directions appearing to be made possible as a result of the project. Emphasis of the release will be placed on the project's achievements so far and the ones anticipated by the project's expiration. Finalised project web site Revised site, following feedback, suggestion and recommendations by the community and the Steering Committee. Finalized outreach material and web site (year 3) Based on feedback from project partners involved in public outreach and evaluation from online communication with the public, educational material will be updated and new material will be included (movies). The content of the EPO area of the project’s web site will be finalized, making sure that all relevant content be translated into the languages of the project partners. All materials will remain accessible to the public and to future project teams beyond the duration of the project. Initial education and public outreach web site content Establishment of a dedicated area for EPO in the project's web site with initial heritage material adapted for FLARECAST from previous projects (e.g., HESPE). Material will then be generated for FLARECST, following the FLARECAST guidelines. Online public comments will be facilitated and collected/evaluated by the Project Management Board in regular intervals. Press and media release (year 3) A third and final press and media release will be organized by the project's expiration. The theme of the release will be the project's achievements and projections for the future. The contents of the release will have the approval of both the Project Management Board and the project's Steering Committee. Organization of second Stakeholders Workshop A second workshop will be presented by the project's expiration. Its objectives will be to (1) solidify the impact of the project to government decisions on space weather and (2) investigate, on a practical basis, the possibilities for further industrial involvement to the project's final products and the anticipated future possibilities. The underlying theme will be to take best advantage of the project's existence and performance. Project web site established Establishment of the main project web site, with public and password-protected (member) areas for exchange of documents and project-related communication. Education and public outreach material (year 1) Supporting and following the press release for year 1 of the project, a major update of the project's EPO material will be performed. Materials will be introduced to, and feedback sought from, the project partners at the annual consortium meeting. They will be made available to the public, teachers, science communicators and project partners involved in EPO through the EPO area of the project’s web site. In the case of physical hands-on materials and give away objects, project partners will have the opportunity to order a set for their own institution. Press and media release (year 1) At the end of month 12, there will be a press and media release on the progress and initial performance of the project. The release will have the approval of the Project Management Board. Organization of first Stakeholders Workshop This will be the project's first effort to establish itself through its achievements in its maturity phase to industry and government, or governmental organizations. The workshop will include scientific achievements and their industrial implications, as well as the results of the raise of awareness of the public via EPO, that will be directed toward officials and government representatives. The spirit of the workshop will be the project's maturity phase and what it brings to stakeholders, with projections for the future. Demonstrators, pilots, prototypes (2) Updated prediction database schema D4.6 will provide the final release of the FLARECAST prediction database schema for the access to products realized by the prediction algorithms. Initial prediction database schema D4.2 will provide the first, prototypal version of the database containing the output of the processing step realized by the prediction algorithms. Open Research Data Pilot (1) Initial data management plan Tentative planning for data management, including storage and processing (i.e., data mining). Publications Peer reviewed articles (10) A Hybrid Supervised/Unsupervised Machine Learning Approach to Solar Flare Prediction Author(s): Federico Benvenuto, Michele Piana, Cristina Campi, Anna Maria Massone Published in: The Astrophysical Journal, Issue 853/1, 2018, Page(s) 90, ISSN 1538-4357 Publisher: IOP Publishing DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/aaa23c Flaring Rates and the Evolution of Sunspot Group McIntosh Classifications Author(s): Aoife E. McCloskey, Peter T. Gallagher, D. Shaun Bloomfield Published in: Solar Physics, Issue 291/6, 2016, Page(s) 1711-1738, ISSN 0038-0938 Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers DOI: 10.1007/s11207-016-0933-y Non-neutralized Electric Currents in Solar Active Regions and Flare Productivity Author(s): Ioannis Kontogiannis, Manolis K. Georgoulis, Sung-Hong Park, Jordan A. Guerra Published in: Solar Physics, Issue 292/11, 2017, ISSN 0038-0938 Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers DOI: 10.1007/s11207-017-1185-1 A COMPARISON OF FLARE FORECASTING METHODS. I. RESULTS FROM THE “ALL-CLEAR” WORKSHOP Author(s): G. Barnes, K. D. Leka, C. J. Schrijver, T. Colak, R. Qahwaji, O. W. Ashamari, Y. Yuan, J. Zhang, R. T. J. McAteer, D. S. Bloomfield, P. A. Higgins, P. T. Gallagher, D. A. Falconer, M. K. Georgoulis, M. S. Wheatland, C. Balch, T. Dunn, E. L. Wagner Published in: The Astrophysical Journal, Issue 829/2, 2016, Page(s) 89, ISSN 1538-4357 Publisher: Institute of Physics DOI: 10.3847/0004-637X/829/2/89 Relative magnetic helicity as a diagnostic of solar eruptivity Author(s): E. Pariat, J. E. Leake, G. Valori, M. G. Linton, F. P. Zuccarello, K. Dalmasse Published in: Astronomy & Astrophysics, Issue 601, 2017, Page(s) A125, ISSN 0004-6361 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201630043 Testing predictors of eruptivity using parametric flux emergence simulations Author(s): Chloé Guennou, Etienne Pariat, James E. Leake, Nicole Vilmer Published in: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, Issue 7, 2017, Page(s) A17, ISSN 2115-7251 Publisher: EDP Sciences DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2017015 Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre Author(s): S. A. Murray, S. Bingham, M. Sharpe, D. R. Jackson Published in: Space Weather, Issue 15/4, 2017, Page(s) 577-588, ISSN 1542-7390 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1002/2016SW001579 Active Region Photospheric Magnetic Properties Derived from Line-of-Sight and Radial Fields Author(s): J. A. Guerra, S.-H. Park, P. T. Gallagher, I. Kontogiannis, M. K. Georgoulis, D. S. Bloomfield Published in: Solar Physics, Issue 293/1, 2018, ISSN 0038-0938 Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers DOI: 10.1007/s11207-017-1231-z Forecasting Solar Flares Using Magnetogram-based Predictors and Machine Learning Author(s): Kostas Florios, Ioannis Kontogiannis, Sung-Hong Park, Jordan A. Guerra, Federico Benvenuto, D. Shaun Bloomfield, Manolis K. Georgoulis Published in: Solar Physics, Issue 293/2, 2018, ISSN 0038-0938 Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers DOI: 10.1007/s11207-018-1250-4 Verification of Space Weather Forecasts Issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre Author(s): M. A. Sharpe, S. A. Murray Published in: Space Weather, Issue 15/10, 2017, Page(s) 1383-1395, ISSN 1542-7390 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1002/2017SW001683 Book chapters (1) Machine Learning for Solar Flare Forecasting Author(s): Anna Maria Massone, Michele Piana & the FLARECAST Consortium Published in: 2018 Publisher: Elsevier Searching for OpenAIRE data... There was an error trying to search data from OpenAIRE No results available
