Periodic Reporting for period 1 - SolarPredict (SolarPredict: An advanced predictive tool and service of the Solar 11-yr Activity Cycle)
Reporting period: 2015-03-01 to 2016-08-31
The main idea of the SolarPredict Proof of Concept project is to use physically based solar dynamo models (that compute how mechanical energy in the Sun is converted into magnetic energy) to make solar 11-yr activity predictions more robust/reliable and to develop the tools to make them accessible as a service to private corporations (such as insurance or airlines companies) or governmental agencies. The key advantage of our tools/techniques over current ones is the implementation in solar physics and dynamo numerical models of state-of-the-art variational data assimilation (DA) techniques used daily in weather forecasting. These variational techniques are known to be more robust and versatile than for instance sequential methods or simple geomagnetic precusors thus allowing us to incorporate the highly complex solar magnetic activity and dynamics into our forecasting tools. After 18 months of intense work we are pleased to report that we have developed a working pilot application and service using our novel variational DA solar prediction algorithm. We are now in capacity to perform both hindcasting and forecasting of solar dynamics (both magnetic cycle and internal flow fields). We have performed a market study and the outcome is very positive, a real interest for a forecasting tool of solar activity has been expressed by various end-users in order for them to be able to do mid-term planning of key operations.