Winter Rain, Summer Rain: Adaptation, Climate Change, Resilience and the Indus Civilisation

Project Information

TWORAINS

Grant agreement ID: 648609

DOI

10.3030/648609

Project closed

EC signature date 27 May 2015

Start date 1 September 2015

End date 31 August 2021

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 999 439,00

EU contribution

€ 1 999 439,00

Coordinated by

THE CHANCELLOR MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 4 - TWORAINS (Winter Rain, Summer Rain: Adaptation, Climate Change, Resilience and the Indus Civilisation)

Reporting period: 2020-03-01 to 2021-08-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Rainfall systems are complex and inherently variable, yet they are of fundamental importance due to their impact on food security. Given that human populations can adapt their behaviour to a wide range of climatic and environmental conditions, it is essential that we understand the degree to which human choices in the past, present and future are resilient and sustainable in the face of variable weather conditions, and when confronted with abrupt events of climate change. TwoRains will investigate the resilience and sustainability of South Asia’s first complex society, the Indus Civilisation (c.2500-1900 BC), which developed across a range of distinctive environmental contexts where westerly winter rainfall overlapped with the summer rainfall of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). It is now clear that there was an abrupt weakening of the ISM that directly impacted NW India c.2100 BC, and coincided with the start of the decline of Indus cities. The degree of connection between these two processes is, however, elusive. Archaeologists have a unique role to play in understanding the ways that societies respond to climate change as they can investigate past instances of success or failure, and the Indus Civilisation provides an ideal laboratory in which to explore how societies can respond to variable and changing rain systems. TwoRains will combine cutting edge approaches from Archaeology, Earth Sciences and Geography to reconstruct climate, model rain patterns, and explore societal adaptations and responses to change by combining data on settlement distribution, food production and consumption, and water stress. The data will then be integrated and assessed using agent-based modelling. By adopting an integrated interdisciplinary approach, it will be possible to ask “Does climate change really cause collapse?”, elucidate how particular communities perceived weather and landscape changes, hypothesise why they made the decisions they did, and explore the consequences of those decisions.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

PI (Cameron Petrie) has engaged in project management, supervision and mentoring, as well co-ordinating the fieldwork programme, and taking a lead role in preparing project publications. The fieldwork has included reconnaissance of locations for palaeoclimate sampling (2016), fieldtrips to collect palaeoclimate samples (2017, 2018, 2019), co-direction of collaborative excavations at at Khanak (2016), Lohari Ragho (2017) and Masudpur I (2018), and data collecting trips (2018, 2019, 2020).
The project involved five PDRF and four funded PhD researchers and one non-funded PhD researcher.
PDRF1 (Hector Orengo) developed cutting edge approaches for using Big Data to carry out remote sensing analysis to assess the long-term hydrological evolution and landscape formation and transformation of the plains of northwest India. All of the objectives of this role have been achieved. The post ended, but he continued to collaborate in both research and publications.
PDRF2 (Adam Green) interrogated the published archaeological records related to settlement distribution, and constructed a pilot for a comprehensive register of archaeological sites within the greater Indus region. He studied the settlement location data in the project study area, and ground-truthed site locations. The post ended, but he continued to collaborate on the project in both research and publications.
PDRF3 (Cemre Ustunkaya) collaborated with PDRF4 to carry out growth experiments on millet and barley species to collect primary data about how plants respond to different watering conditions, with her specific focus being the assessment of the levels of grain size variation and quantity in plants subjected to variable watering regimes. The post ended, but she is completing the writing up for publication.
PDRF4 (Emma Lightfoot) has collaborated with PDRF3 to carry out growth experiments on millet and barley species to collect primary data about how plants respond to different watering conditions, with her specific focus being the assessment of the levels of isotopic variation in plants subjected to variable watering regimes. She collected samples of animal bones for stable isotope analysis. The post ended, but she is completing the writing up for publication.
PDFA5 (Andreas Angourakis) has engaged in Agent Based Modelling to assess various project hypotheses. He has developed the ‘Indus Village’ agent-based model. He is on track to complete the research for this role, and the approaches that have been developed for the agent-based modelling have the potential to transform the way that modelling of village-scale decision making is carried out.
PhD1 (Jean-Philippe Baudouin) carried out background research on the weather parameters that need to be considered for the successful weather modelling of the winter and summer rainfall regimes relevant for the project. He has carried out a systematic assessment of rainfall patterns and variability in the Indus River Basin, with attention being given to both the winter Western Disturbances and the summer Indian Monsoon weather systems. He submitted his PhD thesis in 2020.
PhD2 (Alena Giesche) analysed of samples from the palaeolakes, speleothems, and coastal cores. She submitted her thesis in March 2020.
PhD3 (Joanna Walker) modeled land and channel systems within the study area using GIS approaches, and this laid the fundamental foundation for extensive and intensive geoarchaeological fieldwork that focused on the relationship between the settlements at Lohari Ragho, Masudpur I and Masudpur VII, and their landscape context. She is completing her PhD thesis.
PhD4 (Alessandro Ceccarelli) designed and executed a systematic approach to the analysis of archaeological ceramics from Khanak, Lohari Ragho, Masudpur I and also the site of Alamgirpur. He conducted typological analysis, and collected samples for petrographic and compositional analysis. He also collected data on ethnographic potters, and samples of local clay sources close to each settlement. He submitted his PhD thesis in Nov 2019.

The work of the TwoRains project is promoted through the project website [https://www.arch.cam.ac.uk/research/projects/two-rains] and regular updates are posted via our blog page [https://tworains.wordpress.com/].

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The work of the project pushed beyond the state of the art in several ways. The work carried out by PDRF01 (Hector Orengo) has been truly cutting edge in its application of super computing resources and the possibilities for big data computation that is afforded by the newly available Google Earth Engine. Furthermore, some of the algorithms that have been developed are ideal for the remote detection of archaeological sites using machine learning, and are at the forefront of this technology. PDRF02 (Adam Green) has developed a method to record archaeological survey data digitally in the field using the Open Data Kit (ODK), which has the potential to revolutionise the recording of archaeological data in South Asia and beyond. The research for WP2 has led to independent funding for systematic heritage mapping in India and Pakistan that is due to start in late 2020. This is a major source of impact resulting from ERC support.

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