The science of climate change demands radical long-term reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In supporting this, EU policy is committed to develop a low-carbon future by 2050. Key to meeting this target is the contribution of energy and material consumption, and both analysis and policy development have been prioritised. The central planks of mitigation practices globally include technological change and efficiency. However, it is widely acknowledged that the challenge of mitigation fundamentally requires more, as emissions are dependent on the wider development path and underlying driving forces. Within these concepts exists not only the challenges of more complex analysis, but the opportunity of new ways to reduce the impacts of our society and economy on the environment. A promising but neglected option is to look at the social structures that underlie our material consumption.
The perception of mitigation policy is of one cost and loss, but there is potential to deliver mitigation while improving peoples´ lives, to maximise wellbeing and minimise emissions. This study backcasts scenarios of social wellbeing in a low-carbon Europe of 2050, and of how to achieve transition. It begins with the contested links between wellbeing and consumption. The study is a first, adopting interdisciplinary alternative perspectives rather than a unifying theory. These perspectives are then used to develop an original contribution, different visions of wellbeing in the EU of 2050. The energy and emissions implications of social scenarios that entail lower material consumption are unknown, this study is original in quantifying their contribution through modelling. The proposed study is novel and highly innovative addressing priority gaps in knowledge. It dovetails important contributions to sustainability transformation research, with the needs of European society and policy.
