The Prometheus-5 feasibilty study is the final and the only deliverable of the project and was completed during the six-month Prometheus-5 project, phase 1. This study conludes that there is a large market potential for power production and CHP systems running on NG, LPG or biogas derived hydrogen. Small scale electricity and CHP generators address a large number of user needs, as the availability of electricity independently of the presence of electrical grid, environmentally friendly and high efficient devices, renewable energy sources utilization and cost efficient electricity production. In summary, the main market segments for Prometheus-5 include: a) off grid households and country or vacation houses, b) on grid connected buildings which by using Prometheus-5, they can reduce the continuously increasing cost of electricity and heat, c) telecommunication towers, which are located in off-grid places and require electricity to operate, d) trucks which require small scale electricity generators for auxiliary power production, e) marine segment, where boats longer than 10 meters often need a supplementary to the main engine power generator for power and/or heat production and f) small and medium size farms, in the agriculture and livestock sector, where biomass utilization is a new and increasing business. The largest potential markets (residential micro-CHP) are some of the hardest to enter, due to low price points, strong incumbency and a need for coalition approaches, including supportive policy. These markets are mostly being dominated by large companies, with adequate support infrastructures required for servicing and market expansion. The smaller markets (telecommunication backup, portable devices, boats and trucks) are of less interest to these big players and can be addressed by smaller companies, as Helbio. Quantification and further description of its trageted market segment is presented in the feasibility study.
Currently, the market of remote or back-up power generation is served by diesel or gasoline generators which rely on mature and relatively low cost technology. These are the main competitors of Prometheus-5. However, they offer about half of the electrical efficiency and present other drawbacks such as high operational and maintenance costs, large amounts of pollutant emissions, vibration and noise. Operational cost of the proposed system (with LPG as feeding fuel) is more than 2 times lower than that of a conventional ICE generator, while the latter emits three times more CO2 as compared to the proposed fuel cell system. When biogas is used as feeding fuel, the surcharge in carbon footprint is zero.
The business case for the production and distribution of Prometheus-5, includes an approximately €5 million investment, in order to create a modern building and an innovative production line. A total of 1750 m2 building area is needed and 46 job positions will be created. The above budget will be covered by a minimum participation of own capital (founders or investors) and a long-term loan. The investment scenario includes production capability of 5.000 systems per year, assuming 312 days per year operation, 1 shift.
Development strategy scenario assumes niche markets penetration primarily, like telecommunication stations, trucks and boats, and penetration in high volume markets, such as micro-CHP, in a second step. Sales assumption for market penetration in each market segment are presented in details in the feasibility study. Incorporating all above mentioned sales assumptions, the investment creates 1.8m€ revenues the first year and targets more than 57m€ for the fifth year. The investment presents a ten year net present value of 49m€ and an impressing 44% internal rate of return for the same period while the return on investment period is less than 4 years. The analysis concludes that the investment is able to return significant profits and the product has a wide sales portfolio. However, there are difficulties that have to be overtaken and milestones to be succeeded. Strategic and effective actions of marketing and selling tactics have to be undertaken, in order to secure the assumed sales. Time is an enemy of the plan in terms of competition, thus Helbio should start the investment quickly, before large-scale competitors enter the specific market.
