The Project has addressed the main objectives set up in the Description of the Action.
We have developed integrated middle-range theories and high-level syntheses about land system change, particularly in two landmark papers. These, along with other synthesis works on conceptual frameworks and theories in land system and sustainability science, on the normative aspects of land system research as well as on theories of land use claims, are major contributions to Step 5.
A key objective of Step 5 is to produce synthesis and theories on land use and natural resource frontiers. Most of the works of the different steps below contribute to this objective, but in addition, we led or contributed to several key works providing the building blocks for a proper middle-range theory of frontiers emergence and expansion, as well as empirical works that highlight the patterns of frontiers globally as well as of those emerging in boreal regions. We are still working on integrating all these pieces into a coherent synthesis.
The work on Step 1 has generated a novel comprehension of the actors’ decision-making, strategies, and interactions in the domain of land use investors and entrepreneurs in the emerging frontiers of Southern Africa. Collaborations stemming from the project have led to contributions to a larger review paper on farmers decision-making.
The work on Step 2 has generated strong empirical tests of the causal linkages between cropland area and intensity changes, forest area changes, economic development and governance, and the conditions under which distinct effects occur. We have generated theoretical insights on how land use regime shifts from subsistence-oriented land uses to commercial frontiers can occur. We collaborated to broader works to shed light on specific land use displacement issues such as between Russia and Brazil as well as on the role of supply chain configurations and (in)stability in land use outcomes.
The work on Step 3 has generated wall-to-wall maps of land use and land cover change across the north of Mozambique, a ~380,000 km2 region, that provide a spatialized understanding of the trajectories of smallholder and large-scale agricultural investments and of tree plantations in that region. We also generated a comprehensive characterization of deforestation frontiers in tropical dry forests and woodlands regions, as well as novel algorithms for large-scale mapping of field sizes, providing a much more detailed understanding not only of the dynamics of small versus large-scale agriculture but also of the multiple dynamics within small and medium-scale agriculture. On a broader scale, we contributed to assessing the role of land management in global change dynamics.
The work on Step 4 has brought together scientists, policy-makers and practitioners in Mozambique to explore the opportunities and challenges of land use investments in the region. From that, we have developed a comprehensive review and an empirical analysis of the role that strategic planning can play in fostering more sustainable land use systems. We have also produced works on territorial conflicts and on questioning climate change adaptation interventions and narratives around resettlement, a key land use issue in Mozambique. Collaborations developed along with the project have led to publications that contribute to paving the way for improved governance of land use frontiers, such as in relation with transparency of supply chains, on flow-based governance, forest transitions, and sustainable intensification.
Beyond but also transversal to the five steps planned in the project, our work has triggered a novel line of research on the interactions between food systems and land systems, with several papers assessing these relations and developing ideas, or synthesizing key issues at the interface between forests and livelihoods, leading to ongoing empirical works on the role of labor in land system sustainability and on new remote sensing developments to map cropland, fallows and field sizes, which cross-fertilize with the work from Steps 1 and 3 on farm and field size and small-medium-marge-holders interactions.
