Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ACCLIM (Acclimatization scenarios and early warning system of temperature-related mortality in Europe)
Période du rapport: 2017-10-01 au 2019-09-30
The research proposed in this project is focused on the study of one of the most challenging and potentially-dangerous impacts of climate in European societies: the mortality associated with environmental temperatures in the current context of global warming. The specific objectives of the action are:
- Aim 1: Characterization of the temperature-mortality relationship.
- Aim 2: Study of the evolution of mortality.
- Aim 3: Description of the impact of adaptation measures.
- Aim 4: Prototype of climate service of temperature-related mortality.
- Aim 5: Communication, dissemination and exploitation of results.
The project sheds light onto the complex role of societal adaptation within the context of global warming and the 2008 expansion-recession cycle. This knowledge is key for decision-making and the design and implementation of strategies minimizing the negative impacts of future warmer temperatures and expansion-recession cycles.
I observed a generalized decrease in vulnerability in most of Europe, mainly in the Mediterranean countries, but with a few exceptions in eastern and central Europe. Results indicate that, on average, Europe is reducing human vulnerability to heat, but as a result of temperature changes, I did not observe a parallel decrease in overall heat-attributable mortality. I showed for the first time that the trends in summer temperature and relative risk are strongly and significantly associated with the trends of the attributable fraction. I also found that macroeconomic growth is associated with increasing trends in both heat-attributable vulnerability and mortality, and that this relationship is strong and mostly linear for all temperatures during at least the warmest 60-75 days of the year.