Periodic Reporting for period 1 - TRANSRISK (Vulnerability and risk assessment of transportation systems of assets (SoA) exposed to geo-hazards)
Período documentado: 2017-09-01 hasta 2019-08-31
TRANSRISK paved the pathways to innovation in resilience engineering by providing a breakthrough in three main areas of research and advancing the current state of the art as follows.
- Delivered a primer in resilience engineering by establishing a novel resilience assessment framework for transport infrastructure that accounts for the nature of the hazards, including projections for exacerbation of effects due to climate change, their sequence, the loss of functionality, the recovery strategies and their rapidity and associated losses.
- Developed adaptable three-dimensional fragility models illustrated in novel fragility surfaces for facilitating the assessment of the vulnerability of transport systems of assets (SoA) exposed to multiple hazards.
- Built advanced four-dimensional numerical models of transport SoA subjected to critical hazards, which included the three dimensions of the SoA geometry, but also the evolution of models due to deterioration and/or accumulation of natural hazard stressors on the asset throughout their lifetime.
Natural hazards, such as ground movements, debris flow, earthquakes, and floods are major threats to infrastructure, aggravated due to climate change and consequent accumulation of damage and deterioration. However, operability of infrastructure underpins societies and businesses, and as such it is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of economies. Thus, the vulnerability and resilience analysis of critical infrastructure exposed to natural hazards is a key area of research worldwide. However, a systematic and accurate representation of the performance of transport assets subjected to multiple hazards is still missing. More importantly, infrastructure assets comprise Systems of Assets, i.e. a combination of interdependent assets exposed not to one, but to multiple hazards, depending on the environment within which these reside. Thus, reliable assessment of the vulnerability of, and the associated risks to, transport SoA subjected to multiple hazards is of paramount importance. The proposed resilience-based assessment of transport infrastructure is in support of decision-making processes around adaptation, mitigation, and recovery planning in respect of geotechnical and climatic hazards.
The diverse yet complementary expertise of the Fellow (Dr S Argyroudis), the Supervisor (Dr SA Mitoulis), the Host Organisation (University of Surrey), and the Partner Organisations (Transport Research Laboratory/ Prof MG Winter, TRL and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute/ Prof AM Kaynia, NGI) worked perfectly and delivered way beyond the initially expected outcome of the TRANSRISK project. This multi-sectoral nature of the project also included interaction with transportation authorities, stakeholders and industrialists (e.g. ARUP, Highways England, Network Rail, JBA Trust) to produce meaningful and practical research results.
- Delivered a primer in resilience engineering by establishing a novel resilience assessment framework for transport infrastructure that accounts for the nature of the hazards, including projections for exacerbation of effects due to climate change, their sequence, the loss of functionality, the recovery strategies and their rapidity and associated losses.
- Developed adaptable three-dimensional fragility models illustrated in novel fragility surfaces for facilitating the assessment of the vulnerability of transport systems of assets (SoA) exposed to multiple hazards.
- Built advanced four-dimensional numerical models of transport SoA subjected to critical hazards, which included the three dimensions of the SoA geometry, but also the evolution of models due to deterioration and/or accumulation of natural hazard stressors on the asset throughout their lifetime.
Natural hazards, such as ground movements, debris flow, earthquakes, and floods are major threats to infrastructure, aggravated due to climate change and consequent accumulation of damage and deterioration. However, operability of infrastructure underpins societies and businesses, and as such it is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of economies. Thus, the vulnerability and resilience analysis of critical infrastructure exposed to natural hazards is a key area of research worldwide. However, a systematic and accurate representation of the performance of transport assets subjected to multiple hazards is still missing. More importantly, infrastructure assets comprise Systems of Assets, i.e. a combination of interdependent assets exposed not to one, but to multiple hazards, depending on the environment within which these reside. Thus, reliable assessment of the vulnerability of, and the associated risks to, transport SoA subjected to multiple hazards is of paramount importance. The proposed resilience-based assessment of transport infrastructure is in support of decision-making processes around adaptation, mitigation, and recovery planning in respect of geotechnical and climatic hazards.
The diverse yet complementary expertise of the Fellow (Dr S Argyroudis), the Supervisor (Dr SA Mitoulis), the Host Organisation (University of Surrey), and the Partner Organisations (Transport Research Laboratory/ Prof MG Winter, TRL and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute/ Prof AM Kaynia, NGI) worked perfectly and delivered way beyond the initially expected outcome of the TRANSRISK project. This multi-sectoral nature of the project also included interaction with transportation authorities, stakeholders and industrialists (e.g. ARUP, Highways England, Network Rail, JBA Trust) to produce meaningful and practical research results.
WP1: Overview concerning critical hazard effects on transport infrastructure assets. Critical SoA and hazard attributes have been defined in collaboration with Prof MG Winter, during the secondment of Dr S Argyroudis in TRL. A feasible number of case studies was selected for modelling purposes within WP2, against antecedent geo- and climatic events and the generation of fragility models in WP3. The case studies included a river-crossing bridge and highway embankments/slopes, both subjected to flood, scour and earthquake effects.
WP2: Advanced numerical models were generated using state-of-the-art methods for the detailed modelling of critical SoA, including materials, geometries, structural variations, soil structure interaction and combined hazard effects. Modelling challenges have been tackled in collaboration with Prof AM Kaynia in NGI.
WP3: New analytical fragility functions have been produced for the benchmark SoA based on: (a) Definition of damage indices, damage thresholds and damage states for the individual assets. Selection of appropriate intensity measures for each hazard. (b) Parametric numerical analyses to cover a sufficient range of SoA typologies and damage effects. (c) Correlation of hazard intensity measures with calculated damage indices to derive fragility curves/surfaces, considering the associated uncertainties.
WP4: A classification of multiple hazard sequences considering their nature and impacts was proposed. A novel framework and indices for the quantitative resilience assessment of critical infrastructure, subjected to multiple hazards were proposed, considering the vulnerability of the assets to hazard actions, and the rapidity of the recovery, including the temporal variability of the hazards. New restoration models have been proposed for damaged bridges using expert elicitation approaches. The proposed framework was applied on a typical highway bridge. This research included collaboration with Prof D Frangopol (Lehigh University) and other researchers from University of Padova (Italy) and Strathclyde University (UK).
Overall, research progressed as planned, and objectives were achieved and exploited beyond the duration of the project, while publicity, visibility and outreach were maximised through the following actions:
• Publications in high-impact scientific journals (2 published, another 7 under review and/or preparation), and international conferences (9 papers), a total of 18 publications
• Participation in grant bidding (10) and successful research and consulting projects (6 successful, 2 in preparation, for 1 decision is pending)
• Participation in conferences and other events (10)
• Seminars and training courses (5)
• Organisation of special sessions in international conferences (4)
• A new and highly visited website was developed (www.infrastructuResilience.com)
• Periodical posts in Researchgate, Linkedin, and Facebook
• Part of the research was presented in taught modules at the Uni of Surrey (5 lectures).
WP2: Advanced numerical models were generated using state-of-the-art methods for the detailed modelling of critical SoA, including materials, geometries, structural variations, soil structure interaction and combined hazard effects. Modelling challenges have been tackled in collaboration with Prof AM Kaynia in NGI.
WP3: New analytical fragility functions have been produced for the benchmark SoA based on: (a) Definition of damage indices, damage thresholds and damage states for the individual assets. Selection of appropriate intensity measures for each hazard. (b) Parametric numerical analyses to cover a sufficient range of SoA typologies and damage effects. (c) Correlation of hazard intensity measures with calculated damage indices to derive fragility curves/surfaces, considering the associated uncertainties.
WP4: A classification of multiple hazard sequences considering their nature and impacts was proposed. A novel framework and indices for the quantitative resilience assessment of critical infrastructure, subjected to multiple hazards were proposed, considering the vulnerability of the assets to hazard actions, and the rapidity of the recovery, including the temporal variability of the hazards. New restoration models have been proposed for damaged bridges using expert elicitation approaches. The proposed framework was applied on a typical highway bridge. This research included collaboration with Prof D Frangopol (Lehigh University) and other researchers from University of Padova (Italy) and Strathclyde University (UK).
Overall, research progressed as planned, and objectives were achieved and exploited beyond the duration of the project, while publicity, visibility and outreach were maximised through the following actions:
• Publications in high-impact scientific journals (2 published, another 7 under review and/or preparation), and international conferences (9 papers), a total of 18 publications
• Participation in grant bidding (10) and successful research and consulting projects (6 successful, 2 in preparation, for 1 decision is pending)
• Participation in conferences and other events (10)
• Seminars and training courses (5)
• Organisation of special sessions in international conferences (4)
• A new and highly visited website was developed (www.infrastructuResilience.com)
• Periodical posts in Researchgate, Linkedin, and Facebook
• Part of the research was presented in taught modules at the Uni of Surrey (5 lectures).
This research contributed to the enhancement of current practices by moving toward the multi-hazard lifetime resilience assessment of infrastructure, and provided useful insights for the resilience-based design and management of infrastructure throughout their lifetime, leading to cost savings and improved services. In particular, the contribution beyond the state of the art is summarised in the following:
- A new concept for transport infrastructure systems of assets (SoA) in ecosystems exposed to geotechnical and climatic hazards was introduced.
- A novel methodology for the development of numerical fragility functions for transport SoA exposed to multiple hazards was proposed.
- New fragility curves/surfaces for transport SoA exposed to multiple hazards were developed based on advanced numerical models.
- Damage modes for flood critical bridges were defined and new restoration models were developed based on an expert elicitation approach.
- A new classification of multiple hazard sequences considering their nature and impacts was proposed.
- A novel framework for the quantitative resilience assessment of critical infrastructure, subjected to multiple hazards including their temporal variability was proposed, with resilience indices considering direct and indirect losses.
The use of monitoring systems and digital innovation from emerging technologies was explored, for enhancing the accuracy, reliability and rapidity of exposure data, hazard measures, fragility, restoration and functionality models and risk management.
- A new concept for transport infrastructure systems of assets (SoA) in ecosystems exposed to geotechnical and climatic hazards was introduced.
- A novel methodology for the development of numerical fragility functions for transport SoA exposed to multiple hazards was proposed.
- New fragility curves/surfaces for transport SoA exposed to multiple hazards were developed based on advanced numerical models.
- Damage modes for flood critical bridges were defined and new restoration models were developed based on an expert elicitation approach.
- A new classification of multiple hazard sequences considering their nature and impacts was proposed.
- A novel framework for the quantitative resilience assessment of critical infrastructure, subjected to multiple hazards including their temporal variability was proposed, with resilience indices considering direct and indirect losses.
The use of monitoring systems and digital innovation from emerging technologies was explored, for enhancing the accuracy, reliability and rapidity of exposure data, hazard measures, fragility, restoration and functionality models and risk management.