Global Climate Change is affecting the phenotype, abundance, and distribution of animal and plant populations as well as their interactions, e.g. phenological shifts affecting predator-prey time match-mismatch. Understanding how organisms cope with change is a fundamental objective of biologists. Scientists are now increasingly aware that ecological and evolutionary change in response to Climate Change can occur concurrently, while their interaction can affect populations in a process called eco-evolutionary dynamics. However, we know little about the role of genetic and correlated traits variation and their relations to plasticity in the ability of organisms to cope with Climate Change. The main goal of EcoEvoClim is to assess the role of genetic variation and plasticity in the eco-evolutionary response to Climate Change of (mis)timed predator populations with a genetically determined colour polymorphism that covaries with behavioural traits. To this aim, I will use observational and theoretical approaches, by combining state-of-the art technology, long-term field datasets, and latest population modelling tools.
I will use the Eleonora’s falcon (Falco eleonorae) colonies in the Canary Islands (Spain) as a model system. This is a long-distance migrant that breeds throughout the whole Mediterranean Basin and winters in Madagascar. It occurs in two distinct melanin-based colour morphs independent of age and sex caused by variation in the Mc1r gene. Predicting whether dark or pale morphs will be more affected by environmental change will depend on the adaptive function of colour polymorphism and how it covaries with behaviour and physiology. During the breeding season, the Eleonora's falcon specializes in hunting migratory birds that it captures over the ocean as they head to Africa. Consequently, its breeding season is delayed to coincide with the peak in autumn migration, and breeding colonies are located along the main migratory flyways connecting Europe and Africa. Unlike its Mediterranean colonies, the Eleonora's falcon colonies in the Canary Islands lie away from major migratory flyways and so migratory birds only reach the Canary archipelago accidentally when blown off-course by trade winds. Currently, rising temperatures and oscillations in pressure systems (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) are influencing large-scale wind patterns. Furthermore, autumn migration in birds breeding in Europe and wintering south of the Sahara has advanced in recent years, while that of migrants wintering north of the Sahara has been delayed.
In this project, I will investigate the role of genetic variation and plasticity in the eco-evolutionary responses of (mis)timed predator populations to climate change via three interrelated objectives. 1) Quantify the extent to which climate change affects the match between peak food abundance and the timing of breeding in a specialist predator, 2) examine if and how predators cope with climate change and whether genetic variation can reduce the timing mismatch and 3) assess how genetic variation and plasticity jointly affect the eco-evolutionary response of populations to climate change.
