Objective The HIV eclipse phase typically refers to the time between a virus entering a sexually exposed person and detection of viral RNA in their plasma. Of the four phases of HIV-1 infection (eclipse, acute, chronic and AIDS), the eclipse phase is currently the only window of opportunity for viral clearance. Systemic infection is currently irreversible after the onset of the acute phase. Preventing systemic HIV infection after exposure, therefore, requires understanding and targeting the eclipse phase. Information on this phase, however, is partial and indirect, with fundamental gaps in our knowledge of its role in limiting transmission, in determining the efficacy of infection control strategies, and in governing later infection. Mathematical modelling, when combined with statistical inference, is a useful tool for hypothesis testing and prediction using incomplete information. To date, however, there are no mathematical models that are particularly suitable because current models do not account for two important characteristics of eclipse phase infection. First, none of these models reconcile the very small per-exposure HIV-1 acquisition probability with the high estimate of the basic reproductive number, R0, during acute phase infection. Second, models of acute phase plasma viral load obscure early local dynamics of HIV when the virus forms local, heterogeneous clusters of infection in the genital mucosa before entering the lymphatic and blood systems. My research programme will develop novel models of HIV that are calibrated to diverse data sources to ascertain whether eclipse phase dynamics determine the acquisition of HIV and later infection dynamics. I will use phylogenetic analysis of HIV samples to quantify the role of the transmitting partner in determining viral inoculum dose size, eclipse phase dynamics and HIV acquisition. This research will generate testable predictions for exposed populations and aim to propose novel methods for infection prevention. Fields of science natural sciencesbiological sciencesmicrobiologyvirologymedical and health scienceshealth sciencesinfectious diseasesRNA virusesHIVnatural sciencesbiological sciencesgeneticsRNAnatural sciencesmathematicsapplied mathematicsmathematical model Programme(s) H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme Topic(s) ERC-2017-STG - ERC Starting Grant Call for proposal ERC-2017-STG See other projects for this call Funding Scheme ERC-STG - Starting Grant Coordinator THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH Net EU contribution € 529 857,00 Address Old college, south bridge EH8 9YL Edinburgh United Kingdom See on map Region Scotland Eastern Scotland Edinburgh Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Other funding € 0,00 Beneficiaries (2) Sort alphabetically Sort by Net EU contribution Expand all Collapse all THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH United Kingdom Net EU contribution € 529 857,00 Address Old college, south bridge EH8 9YL Edinburgh See on map Region Scotland Eastern Scotland Edinburgh Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Other funding € 0,00 LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE ROYAL CHARTER United Kingdom Net EU contribution € 810 531,00 Address Keppel street WC1E 7HT London See on map Region London Inner London — West Camden and City of London Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Other funding € 0,00
