The conceptual path that INTEND followed, is divided in three stages based on the three main objectives of the project.
Stage 1- Research and Analysis: Definition of the Landscape
During the first stage of the project, a thorough investigation was conducted of studies produced at a European and international level which provided a comprehensive analysis of the knowledge produced with a focus on technological advances, political imperatives, future transport concepts and Megatrends
The research on technological advances focused on European and International literature. 388 reports were analysed
In the road transport sector, it has been identified that the most dominant technologies in terms of research were: electric and hybrid vehicles; autonomous vehicles; materials development; internal combustion engine design; alternative fuels and refuelling infrastructure; ADAS; CAE; Fuel cell vehicles; electric motor design and battery development. For the aviation sector aircraft design has been identified as the most dominant topic, with engine design and CAE in second place. Air traffic management, materials development and hybrid & electric propulsion ranked right below, while noise modelling and mitigation, alternative fuels and manufacturing processes were also technologies that will enable the sector. For the rail transport mode the most cited technology themes were satellite technologies and their integration with ERTMS and ETCS. Wagon design, non-destructive testing for infrastructure, CAE and future rail station design, including noise monitoring and mitigation solutions were all dominant themes. Finally, for the maritime transport mode the most dominant identified themes were electrified vessels followed by CAE, alternative fuels, multi-engine fuels, ship design, secondary energy converters and integrated emissions control. Autonomous ships and sensor technologies were also identified as potential future technologies for implementation
To identify the transport concepts of the future, a literature review was conducted; 41 reports were analysed. The research revealed that the most dominant passenger transport-applicable concepts of the future were the following: automation, shared mobility, on-demand mobility, MaaS, electrification, seamless transport chains, personal air transportation, smart use of travel time, high-speed rail, superfast ground and underground transportation
For freight transport: freight as a service – FaaS, seamless transport chains, automation, electrification , delivery drones, superfast ground and underground transport, freight consolidation hubs.
The political imperatives were identified using a literature review of more than 130 European and International imperatives supported by the Altas.it software. Imperatives that, among other aspects, directly or indirectly have goals of reducing GHG emissions by supporting modal shift, substituting the source of energy (EV’s, alternative fuels) or using existing infrastructure more efficiently are in the majority.
Finally, the identification process of Megatrends based on literature review revealed that the following four megatrends can be considered as the key among both groups of reviewed sources (transport-related and general foresight studies):
• ageing society
• environmental challenges
• key resource scarcity
• urbanization and megacities
Stage 2- Validation and Analysis: Understanding the conditions
Validation was carried out through the application of the Analytic network process (ANP). Experts from academia, policy-makers, and industry, were invited to participate in a survey session and ninety responses were received.
The results of the Megatrends validation and their effect in the passenger transport have shown that for all interest groups the key Megatrends are 'Changing lifestyle' and 'Environmental challenges - climate changes', and then 'Energy demand and sources', 'Urbanization and Megacities' and 'Ageing society'.
For freight transport research has shown that the most influential Megatrends for all interest groups are also ‘Changing lifestyle’ and ‘Environmental challenges - climate changes’. The following Megatrends have a slightly less impact: ‘Urbanization and Megacities’, ‘Energy demand and sources’, ‘Big world economy’ and finally ‘Ageing society’.
The most dominant key Transport Concepts of the Future Passenger (TCFPs) in passenger transport were’ High-speed trains’ and ‘Automation’. When it comes to freight transport, the key dominant Transport Concepts Future Freight ( TCFFs) were: ‘Automation’ and ‘Delivery drones’
Stage3- Deliver the Future: Development of transport research agenda
Based on the identification of gaps and blind spots in transportation research, future research needs & priorities were defined, resulting in a blueprint of a transport research agenda, consisting of key research and innovation pathways for the future.
The picture below illustrates a snapshot of the main areas of the research agenda
