Impact assessments in the areas of agriculture are (partly) based on projections delivered by models. Sectoral policies are becoming more and more interrelated. Hence, there is a need to improve the capacity of current models, connect them or redesign them to deliver on an increasing variety of policy objectives, and to explore future directions for agricultural modelling in Europe. SUPREMA has a forward looking approach to close the gap between expectations of policy-makers and strengthening existing and establishing new linkages among models. SUPREMA offers scope for improving existing models and establishing new linkages among models. Data management is addressed, as well as future governance structures of the models. SUPREMA worked in light of the policy agenda with an increasing diversity of policy areas (e.g. the Common Agricultural Policy – CAP, environmental and climate policies, Green Deal and Sustainable Development Goals – SDGs). SUPREMA does propose a food systems approach, including input companies, farmers, traders, processors, retailers and consumers.
Modelling primary production could be enhanced through (i) an improved representation of production activities and sectors (e.g. fruits, vegetables and Mediterranean product) and products under quality schemes of the EU, (ii) an improved representation of inputs (e.g. fertilizers, antibiotics) and costs of production, (iii) the adoption of voluntary policy measures, farm management practices and technological innovations. More efforts are needed to better understand the adoption of technological and social innovations at farm level (e.g. endogenous technological change, introducing R&D investments in macro-economic models). Models with a proper representation of land use and forestry are increasingly important for any assessment about the evolution and contribution of the bio-economy.
SUPREMA provides a roadmap exploring future directions for agricultural modelling in the EU. It offers scope for improving existing models and establishing new linkages among models. Besides climate mitigation, more focus has also to be set on the preservation and strengthening of biodiversity.
SUPREMA achieved to gradually reduce gaps between expectations of policy-makers and modelling capacity. Instrumental to achieving these objectives were the workshops to update on progress of the project, the meetings with the External Advisory Board and a webinar to present and discuss the final outcomes.
The existing governance structures of the models are compared with the aim to derive recommendations on how to move towards a more sustainable business model in case they are lagging behind. Open source access is explored and will continue and will have implications for the future governance structures of the models.
