Paradigm for Novel Dynamic Oceanic Resource Assessments

Project Information

PANDORA

Grant agreement ID: 773713

DOI

10.3030/773713

Project closed

EC signature date 13 April 2018

Start date 1 May 2018

End date 30 April 2022

Funded under

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Food security, sustainable agriculture and forestry, marine, maritime and inland water research, and the bioeconomy

Total cost

€ 5 598 388,75

EU contribution

€ 5 598 388,75

Coordinated by

DANMARKS TEKNISKE UNIVERSITET
Denmark

Periodic Reporting for period 3 - PANDORA (Paradigm for Novel Dynamic Oceanic Resource Assessments)

Reporting period: 2021-05-01 to 2022-04-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

PANDORA addresses the most urgent needs of fisheries management and its various fleets in each of five Case Study areas to provide a step change in Europe’s ability to support productive fisheries, boost employment and profits in the sector and promote European food security. PANDORA has assembled a multi-disciplinary team of oceanographers, biologists, economists, stock assessors, fishery advisors, industry and Regional Fisheries Management Organisations to create a step change in our ability to manage and increase the long-term profit from European fisheries resources. The specific objectives of PANDORA are:

1) Create more realistic assessments and projections of changes in fisheries resources (30 stocks, Table 1) by utilizing new biological knowledge (spatial patterns, environmental drivers, food- web interactions and density-dependence) including for the first time proprietary data sampled by fishers.

2) Advice on how to secure long-term sustainability of EU fish stocks (maximum sustainable/’pretty good’ and economic yields) and elucidate tradeoffs between profitability and number of jobs in their (mixed demersal, mixed pelagic and single species) fisheries fleets. Provide recommendations on how to stabilize the long term profitability of European fisheries.

3) Develop a public, internet-based resource tool box, including assessment modelling and stock projections code, economic models, and region- and species-specific decision support tools; increase ownership and contribution opportunities of the industry to the fish stock assessment process through involvement in data sampling and training in data collection, processing and ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The first project period had focused on gaining new knowledge from existing data, as well as revising existing assessment methods where possible, and developing new ones where necessary. Knowledge has been assimilated biology and fisheries, spatial trends and species interactions. Surveys were designed and carried out in collaboration with fishers. We implemented a pilot self-sampling program for the Scottish pelagic fleet. Initially, 7 vessels were recruited. The economic work in Pandora focused on the development of a hybrid scheme to achieve improvements of welfare outcomes under Pretty Good Yield policies.

The second project period focused on finalizing the generation of new data and integrating them in improved stock assessments and management methodology. Targeted experiments were conducted to close important knowledge gaps. The theoretics group has worked on potential consequences of density dependent individual growth for current stock management. The genetics group has developed a comprehensive report on population genetics for almost all species assessed in ICES working groups. The PANDORA self-sampling program has been extended significantly to now include all 22 vessels that are members of the Scottish pelagic fleet.

Fisheries reference points have been revised based on Pandora results. More realism was added to assessment models, and for some so far unassessed species, new stock assessment methods were developed, focusing on integrating information on environmental drivers, helping to address the needs of stakeholders in terms of biological and economic impact of established management measures. We expanded the predictive ability on the relationship between aquatic resources’ distributions and warming. The assessment approaches developed were tailored to the type of stock under study: ‘data-rich’ or ‘data-poor/limited’, and management options were expanded to include also the economic consequences of the future scenarios that have been developed together with stakeholders.

The final project period focused on integrating the improved stock assessments and management methodology in management scenarios and options. We furthermore made great progress with the self-sampling program.

The development of management options and recommendations centered around the problem of including the complexity necessary to forecast fish stocks into existing management procedure and communication channels. We develop ‘Pandora tables’ that show the status of commercially important stocks in relation to productivity, spatial distribution, species interactions and environmental impacts. We also developed genetics fact sheets that summarize the lack of overlap between administrative and biological stock units.

All material developed by the project is collected in the Pandora legacy toolbox that is maintained at the International Council for the exploration of the Seas. (ices.dk/Pandora).

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

PANDORA will deliver a readily implementable open-access tool box that updates current assessment models incorporating key biological knowledge, resolving the diversity of challenges identified in the European fisheries. The PANDORA legacy tool box will be made publically available and its application taught in courses to end-users. The first applications, publications, course material and data for the toolbox have already been developed. At the 2020 and 2021 General Assemblies, the structure of the tool-box has beeen discussed and prepared to be made available online.

PANDORA will ensure full exploitation of fisheries resources through implementation of dynamic and responsive reference points. This way, ensuring sustainability of the fishing industry promoting a long-term stabilized sector that enhances the number of jobs indirectly associated and expanding on new fisheries resources. Already from the start of the project, PANDORA experts will in collaboration with the industry successively introduce PANDORA results in relevant expert groups and management fora. Pandora has actively developed advice, for example on natural mortality rates of Baltic herring and sprat. PANDORA experts have been present in all regional assessment working groups.

PANDORA aims to safeguard sustainable marine food systems that improve bioregional economies, and diminish the ecological footprint of fishing by increasing the prediction capability of stock projections and maximise the uptake of project results via participation in expert groups and training. With Pandora's tool box, management will be more accurate and will ensure a more manageable and predictable supply of seafood from our seas and oceans. The project will help decision makers define their priorities based on the best possible science, accounting for the complexity of fish stocks’ and fisheries’ interactions. Cost benefit analyses in the economic work package have commenced and will be applied in all case studies. These considerations will be combined with the classical, biomass-related fisheries management.

Courses will be given, a repository of training manuals will be created, open-source codes will be shared and training in decision-making will be provided. The courses will be advertised broadly and designed to guarantee wide participation. Financial support will be granted within the project for relevant participants, e.g. fishers, that otherwise could not take part. The first courses have been held. The course plan has been developed. Especially the self-sampling initiative from the industrial partners on PANDORA has shown to perform better than expected, because interest of fishers is very high.

Scientists participating in PANDORA at the kick off meeting