Periodic Reporting for period 1 - IPMRB (Imprecise Probability Models of Rational Belief)
Período documentado: 2018-08-01 hasta 2020-07-31
Reasoning under uncertainty is something that all kinds of individual, corporate and government actors have to do, and doing so on the basis of the best theory of rational belief will allow better decisions to be made. Since some of the problems with the standard probabilistic theory arise in contexts involving severe uncertainty,
and since Imprecise Probability Models do better in those circumstances, this project is particularly relevant to those working on decision making under severe uncertainty. For example, the success of climate adaptation decisions depends on fine-grained, long-timescale information about extremes of future weather that we don't yet have reliable ways of providing.
The objectives of the project were to produce several research articles on various aspects of IP that, together, provide a solid foundational theory of rational belief, inference and decision making using Imprecise Probabilities; and to disseminate that theory to relevant researcher communities.
The project work has been presented to and discussed with practitioners from several other disciplines including statistics, economics and climate science. New research connections have been formed that will enhance and facilitate future work on this topic.
a foundationally secure, detailed and workable theory of rationality that has significant advantages over the standard theory. The fellow has engaged sucessfully with researchers in mathematics and statistics and in climate science as well as with the philosophical community.