As part of the first Work Package, we found half of the species we analysed have faced a shrinkage in their realised climatic niche, in response to human alteration of their distribution, global climatic change, and life history. Climatic factors were the strongest correlates of species niche change, followed by anthropogenic pressure and species’ life history. The probability of species to face niche erosion was high at intermediate levels of climatic stability, and very high at low levels of stability. At the same time, species with large body size, long gestation time, and carnivorous diet were more likely to undergo niche erosion. Higher levels of historical land-use change and current human population density were also positively associated with niche erosion. These results points towards the ability of species to tolerate (or even take advantage of) low levels of climatic change, and inability to tolerate intermediate or high levels of change, especially when combined with other human pressure and certain biological traits that make species more susceptible to such pressures. As part of the second Work Package, we identified tipping points of climatic instability beyond which species become more likely to undergoing niche shrink. This is an essential information to evaluate the ecological effects of future climatic scenarios, as well as the ecological significance of international climate commitments such as the Paris Agreement. The completion of results for the second Work Package will have direct relevance for measuring the ecological relevance of global climate mitigation commitments.
Aside from their scientific value, the project’s results contribute to the policy, and societal understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. The Research Fellow was invited to contribute a section about the expected impacts of climate change on biodiversity for the upcoming Living Planer Report of WWF international. The Fellow was also invited to participate in international meetings and workshops to discuss the Post-2020 strategy of the Convention of Biological Diversity. Project’s results, and overall goal, were also shared during communication events organised by Sapienza University and Frascati Scienza during the Climate Strike for Future and the European Researchers’ Night. European States are committed to delivering on the Paris Agreement and the broader UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and the EU has agreed that by 2020 3% of each Member States’ GDP is invested in research. The results of this project can support these commitments, by unveiling the ecological risk associated with global climate change.
