Periodic Reporting for period 1 - EXTINCT (The interaction of environmental conditions and species traits as drivers of species extinctions and community homogenisation)
Período documentado: 2019-01-02 hasta 2021-01-01
Climate and habitat change are among the main anthropogenic perturbations that species are having to confront accelerating the decline of many species, with some already facing or undergoing extinction. The consequences go beyond the global loss of biological diversity since there is also evidence of community homogenisation, with subsequent alterations in ecosystem functions essential for human well being. However, our predictions of the effect of climate change on species extinctions need to be improved. A crucial aspect is that extinction is the culmination of a sequence of local population declines and extirpations, each with potentially distinct interaction between the species traits and the local environment. EXTINCT has evaluated the role of species traits in their response to climate anomalies and how these responses can be buffered by the landscape heterogeneity. This knowledge was lacking until now. This allows us to (i) predict specific populations and species (traits) at risks; (ii) establish the species traits-landscape combination needed to stop or reverse local biodiversity loss; and (iii) provide guidance to policy makers taking decisions on habitat management actions.
The outcomes have a clear impact on the society and economy, since biodiversity loss impacts on ecosystem services. Besides, EXTINCT directly applies to policy makers taking decisions on habitat management actions. These actions are relevant for the conservation of butterfly and insect communities in general. This is in compliance with the Aichi 2020 conservation targets where Europe has a commitment via the Convention of Biological Diversity (UN). In addition, EXTINCT is a great example of how basic science can be applied effectively to solve problems that the European society demands, while making science closer to citizens.
Overall the project has improved generalisation on the patterns of species extinctions and community homogenisation in relation to climatic anomalies, and how species responses to these perturbations depend on their degree of local adaptation. Specifically, the project has:
RO1. Estimated species-specific local population trends and extirpations while assessing the effects of climate and the degree of local adaptation of ca. 140 species.
RO2. Estimated how local adaptation to the climatic conditions relates to species traits and their phylogeny.
RO3. Estimated and predicted differences in the species responses (population dynamics) to the climatic anomalies, including how they vary as per the location of the species population.
RO4. Estimated and predicted how the effects of climate on local population trends and extirpations vary in relation landscape heterogeneity, for the different responses types of the species as per their degree of local adaptation and their location in their range. Hence, providing more specific and reliable patterns of species responses to inform potential landscape management.
The outcomes have a clear impact on the society and economy, since biodiversity loss impacts on ecosystem services. Besides, EXTINCT directly applies to policy makers taking decisions on habitat management actions. These actions are relevant for the conservation of butterfly and insect communities in general. This is in compliance with the Aichi 2020 conservation targets where Europe has a commitment via the Convention of Biological Diversity (UN). In addition, EXTINCT is a great example of how basic science can be applied effectively to solve problems that the European society demands, while making science closer to citizens.
Overall the project has improved generalisation on the patterns of species extinctions and community homogenisation in relation to climatic anomalies, and how species responses to these perturbations depend on their degree of local adaptation. Specifically, the project has:
RO1. Estimated species-specific local population trends and extirpations while assessing the effects of climate and the degree of local adaptation of ca. 140 species.
RO2. Estimated how local adaptation to the climatic conditions relates to species traits and their phylogeny.
RO3. Estimated and predicted differences in the species responses (population dynamics) to the climatic anomalies, including how they vary as per the location of the species population.
RO4. Estimated and predicted how the effects of climate on local population trends and extirpations vary in relation landscape heterogeneity, for the different responses types of the species as per their degree of local adaptation and their location in their range. Hence, providing more specific and reliable patterns of species responses to inform potential landscape management.
During the duration of the project, we have:
W1. Compiled the species data and selected the environmental data in terms of climatic variables (temperature, precipitation or aridity) and of landscape (e.g. altitude, slope) most relevant to each species’ population dynamics.
W2. Modelled population dynamics in relation to the best selected climatic anomalies and assessed the degree of local adaptation to of the species to the climatic events.
W3. Estimated if/how mobility, voltinism (i.e. number of reproductions per year), and phylogeny define the species degree of local adaptation. This has been done by modelling the degree of local adaptation against the species traits while accounting per the phylogenetic relationships.
W4. Modelled how the degree of local adaptation and the population location within their overall species specific distribution produce different population responses to the climatic anomalies.
W5. Assessed how landscape heterogeneity can buffer the negative of the species populations, accounting per the different population responses as per the species local adaptation and their location in their distribution (W4).
Contrary to expectations, the degree of local adaptation showed no associations with species mobility or reproductive rate; i.e. that a species was not better adapted to the local conditions in relation to these traits. However, we found a strong phylogenetic signal, which suggest a dominant effect of evolutionary constraints. We also observed highly locally adapted species respond similarly to climatic anomalies irrespectively of the location within their range, with maximum population growth tending to occur at the local average temperature. However, globally adapted species show different responses depending on their location within their range. As such, populations at the range center also show best performance at average temperatures. Yet, global adapted species at their margin show positive or negative responses to the increase of the anomalies of the climatic variable most affecting them. Overall, this means that for global adapted species there is no a unique response that explains their declines all over their range. Hence, management needs to account for the different responses of the populations of the species in relation to (a) their degree of local adaptation, and (b) the location of their populations within their distribution. Finally, while we tested the effect of topographic heterogeneity on population responses but this was not significant. Hence, altitude did not appear to significantly buffer species responses to the climatic anomalies. Further analyses related to habitat (vegetation) heterogeneity cold be perform to advance these results.
W1. Compiled the species data and selected the environmental data in terms of climatic variables (temperature, precipitation or aridity) and of landscape (e.g. altitude, slope) most relevant to each species’ population dynamics.
W2. Modelled population dynamics in relation to the best selected climatic anomalies and assessed the degree of local adaptation to of the species to the climatic events.
W3. Estimated if/how mobility, voltinism (i.e. number of reproductions per year), and phylogeny define the species degree of local adaptation. This has been done by modelling the degree of local adaptation against the species traits while accounting per the phylogenetic relationships.
W4. Modelled how the degree of local adaptation and the population location within their overall species specific distribution produce different population responses to the climatic anomalies.
W5. Assessed how landscape heterogeneity can buffer the negative of the species populations, accounting per the different population responses as per the species local adaptation and their location in their distribution (W4).
Contrary to expectations, the degree of local adaptation showed no associations with species mobility or reproductive rate; i.e. that a species was not better adapted to the local conditions in relation to these traits. However, we found a strong phylogenetic signal, which suggest a dominant effect of evolutionary constraints. We also observed highly locally adapted species respond similarly to climatic anomalies irrespectively of the location within their range, with maximum population growth tending to occur at the local average temperature. However, globally adapted species show different responses depending on their location within their range. As such, populations at the range center also show best performance at average temperatures. Yet, global adapted species at their margin show positive or negative responses to the increase of the anomalies of the climatic variable most affecting them. Overall, this means that for global adapted species there is no a unique response that explains their declines all over their range. Hence, management needs to account for the different responses of the populations of the species in relation to (a) their degree of local adaptation, and (b) the location of their populations within their distribution. Finally, while we tested the effect of topographic heterogeneity on population responses but this was not significant. Hence, altitude did not appear to significantly buffer species responses to the climatic anomalies. Further analyses related to habitat (vegetation) heterogeneity cold be perform to advance these results.
EXTINCT has extended and improved our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the effects of global change, which can then be used to make predictions about the fate of species and communities under different scenarios of global change. This allows us to elucidate the general patterns of populations, species and traits responses to climate change and hence our ability to forecast and manage biodiversity risks. EXTINCT has, for first time, assessed the degree adaptation of species populations to the local conditions, rather than global general trends. We discovered that this degree of local adaptation relates to the species phylogeny, which potentially might reflect relation with other species traits not analysed by the project. Furthermore, understanding how populations respond differently in relation to their position within their range has never before been analysed in relation to the species degree of local adaptation. EXTINCT has shown that both the degree of local adaptation and the position in the range are key to understand and forecast local population trends and, hence, species dynamics.
This is in agreement with current EU initiatives, seeking to address the problems of biological loss and community homogenisation in a comprehensive manner. Results from the project can be used by policy makers to develop locally tailored guidelines and to take informed conservation decisions. The project has overall provided better understanding of the interrelationships between the climate and changes in biodiversity, and has identified new patterns related to geographic range and local adaption, which will ultimately enable more effective species conservation policies across the EU.
This is in agreement with current EU initiatives, seeking to address the problems of biological loss and community homogenisation in a comprehensive manner. Results from the project can be used by policy makers to develop locally tailored guidelines and to take informed conservation decisions. The project has overall provided better understanding of the interrelationships between the climate and changes in biodiversity, and has identified new patterns related to geographic range and local adaption, which will ultimately enable more effective species conservation policies across the EU.