Characterizing Congo Basin Drought resilience: an Integrative Modelling approach

Descripción del proyecto

Comprender la respuesta de la cuenca del Congo al cambio climático

La selva africana sirve de persistente sumidero de carbono y desempeña un papel crucial en las economías locales y extranjeras. Sin embargo, se ha manifestado preocupación por la resiliencia a la sequía de las especies arbóreas tropicales de la región debido a una tendencia a la desecación a largo plazo observada a través de datos de teledetección y mediciones de isótopos estables en los anillos de los árboles. El equipo del proyecto COBADIM, financiado con fondos europeos, pretende mejorar nuestra comprensión de cómo responden las especies arbóreas tropicales africanas a las cambiantes condiciones climatológicas de la cuenca central del Congo. En el proyecto se empleará una combinación de investigación ecofisiológica y dendrocronológica, junto con un método basado en modelos, para integrar diversos flujos de datos y elaborar un modelo mecanicista del ecosistema a base de datos conocido como MuSICA. El planteamiento de la investigación de COBADIM proporcionará estimaciones sobre la vulnerabilidad de las especies arbóreas a las condiciones de sequía.

Objetivo

The African rainforest, is the second largest on Earth, covers ~630 million ha and stores up to 66 Pg of carbon and is presently a persistent carbon sink. In addition, African rainforest support the forestry sector which contributes 3-6% of the gross domestic product across the Congo Basin with most foreign export directed to Europe. As such, African rainforest currently represents both a local and foreign economic driver and provides important ecosystem services through the negative feedback on the global carbon cycle. Both remote sensing data and tree ring stable isotope measurements have shown that these forests are currently being subjected to a long-term drying trend, raising fears over the drought resilience of tropical tree species and the persistence and magnitude of this important terrestrial carbon sink. Here, we combine eco-physiological and dendrochronological research with a model based approach to increase our understanding of the response of African tropical tree species under changing climatological conditions across the central Congo Basin. We will integrate several data streams including inventory data on soil properties and associated leaf traits, wood traits, phenology, retrospective dendrochronology and wood core stable isotope and calcium tracer time series, in order to constrain a data-informed mechanistic ecosystem model (MuSICA). Using a novel tracer experiment we will corroborate the use of a calcium [Ca] tracer in tropical tree species for rapid dating and eco-physiological research into drought resistance. Accurate model predictions, based upon Ca tracer measurements made during this action, will provide estimates of the vulnerability of tree species to future drought conditions. Our results will have important policy implications as the demise of important tree species could have significant effects on ecosystem services, e.g. affecting the carbon balance, as well as a direct economic impact on sustainable local and EU timber trade.