Specific activities to reach each objective are
1. In a unified framework of synthetic population, we combined different data sources including location-dependent density data from Worldpop.org demographic statistics from Turkish Statistical Institute, statistics about refugees from the Turkish Migration Office as well as the new large-scale survey administered on Syrian population (the largest group of refugees in Turkey forming more than 90% of the refugee population) by the Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies. The synthetic population includes synthetic individuals that are similar to real individuals at the aggregate level that can be attributed through different demographic distributions such as gender, age, occupation, household/workplace/school size, etc. For this objective, we created a set of guidelines that can be used to generate synthetic populations for other European countries.
2. The primary modeling software platform FRED that we were planning to use was commercialized last year. Although a community edition is still available, it is less-frequently updated so Dr. Guclu created an agent-based model similar to FRED but with simpler functionality. The new model is capable of using synthetic population data and creating infectious disease scenarios (influenza, measles, Covid-19) as well as simulating interventions such as isolation, quarantine, antivirals, etc.
3. Dr. Guclu has been assigned as a consultant for the local Istanbul Pandemic Coordination Board and also asked to be a statistician/modeler at the newly formed Ministry of Health board, Social Sciences Board. Dr. Guclu is using his expertise and the results from the MIDIDP project to guide public health authorities in assessing the effectiveness of interventions and devising new ones. With the new data sources made available to him, Dr. Guclu is simulating realistic Covid-19 scenarios in Turkey that can be extended into other European countries as well.
Overview of the results and Exploitation and Dissemination
The MIDIDP Project aimed at creating a realistic model to simulate infectious disease spread in different parts of Europe. The main output of the project was a framework to prepare the simulation by using publicly available data sources. The framework can be applied in any other European country to simulate infectious diseases such as pandemic influenza, measles, and Covid-19.
Dr. Guclu has been an ardent supporter of disseminating the results of any project to the public. He has been trained in an intensive science communication program at Carnegie Science Center of the City of Pittsburgh. As part of the dissemination activities of the MIDIDP Project, his exhibition Germ Troopers was accepted for the Science if Wonderful event in Brussels. He participated in the event for two days to teach children and adults how germs spread and how to wash hands properly.
Dr. Guclu was a member of the founding board of Istanbul Medeniyet University (IMU) Technopark up until last year. Dr. Guclu has been using the contacts at IMU Technopark to found a company to exploit the work of MIDIDP. In January 2020, Dr. Guclu and his colleagues at IMU started a new Master of Science program called “Biological Data Science”. He is now the program director with 30 students from various disciplines. Dr. Guclu has four students he has been advising on their theses. The MIDIDP Project has served as a source of ideas for these students' theses.
Through the MIDIDP project, Dr. Guclu has made connections with public health authorities in Turkey both at the local and national levels that are the primary “customers” for the kind of work done in the project. Since last January he has been also so active in Twitter to disseminate the results of the project to more than 5200 followers including the members of the National Pandemic Preparedness Board (@hguclu) as well as to raise awareness about the outbreak and to increase compliance of the public to accept the measures and interventions. Instead of primarily retweeting other people’s messages he tries to create original content backed up by science and the project MIDIDP was very instrumental to give him that edge.
