Periodic Reporting for period 4 - VARME (Varieties of Media Effects)
Reporting period: 2023-09-01 to 2025-02-28
Then main problem addressed in this project concerns how the news media influence how citizens perceive societal problems over longer periods of time. We know from extensive research that media coverage matters when it comes to influencing how citizens perceive the world around them, but we know less about the dynamics and varieties of these influences over time. To provide a more comprehensive understanding of such influences, the project expands on a variety of media effects including the formation, stability and change beliefs.
Understanding how citizens' perceptions of societal problems are shaped is fundamental for broader patterns of public opinion formation in democratic societies. Citizens rely on various media for making sense of the "world outside" and such perceptions exert a significant impact on voting behavior. Today's media environment provides multiple opportunities for citizens to select among different news sources offering various perspectives on society. Therefore, the project also looks at how such news choices matter for a variety of media effects.
Thus, the overall objective of VARME is to determine the long-term effects of the news media on citizens’ beliefs about societal problems. As such, VARME focuses on a variety of media effects of substantial theoretical and societal significance, relating to how (a) news coverage and (b) selective news media use influence the formation, maintenance, reinforcement and change of societal beliefs over time.
Across a variety of longitudinal studies – including long-term panel surveys, event-driven studies, focus groups and experiments – the project documents how news coverage and use influence citizens’ perceptions over time, as well as how such dynamics are conditioned by third factors. The project provides both novel theoretical and conceptual contributions outlining a distinct set of long-term media effect dynamics as well as methodological contributions outlining statistical approaches in order to capture such effects. Empirically, several studies provide evidence of how news coverage and media use influence sudden shifts in societal beliefs, as well as maintenance and reinforcement of beliefs over longer period of time.
Understanding how citizens' perceptions of societal problems are shaped is fundamental for broader patterns of public opinion formation in democratic societies. Citizens rely on various media for making sense of the "world outside" and such perceptions exert a significant impact on voting behavior. Today's media environment provides multiple opportunities for citizens to select among different news sources offering various perspectives on society. Therefore, the project also looks at how such news choices matter for a variety of media effects.
Thus, the overall objective of VARME is to determine the long-term effects of the news media on citizens’ beliefs about societal problems. As such, VARME focuses on a variety of media effects of substantial theoretical and societal significance, relating to how (a) news coverage and (b) selective news media use influence the formation, maintenance, reinforcement and change of societal beliefs over time.
Across a variety of longitudinal studies – including long-term panel surveys, event-driven studies, focus groups and experiments – the project documents how news coverage and use influence citizens’ perceptions over time, as well as how such dynamics are conditioned by third factors. The project provides both novel theoretical and conceptual contributions outlining a distinct set of long-term media effect dynamics as well as methodological contributions outlining statistical approaches in order to capture such effects. Empirically, several studies provide evidence of how news coverage and media use influence sudden shifts in societal beliefs, as well as maintenance and reinforcement of beliefs over longer period of time.
Since the start of the project, work has focused on (1) planning and designing empirical studies, (2) fielding several data collections, (3) theory development, conceptualization and literature review, as well as (4) writing, preparing and finalizing manuscripts. At the moment, the project has generated 16 peer-reviewed articles in scientific journals as well as several manuscripts still under review, plus two book chapters and a large number of conference papers.
With respect to empirical studies, the project has completed several data collections, including a long-term panel survey, several longitudinal event studies and experiments, as well as focus groups. All data collections are designed to address how citizens’ perceptions of societal problems develop over time and relate to news coverage and media use – focusing on issues such as antimicrobial resistance, climate change, crime, economy, education, European Union affairs, health care, and unemployment. The event-driven studies focus on climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, and education. Experiments focus on antimicrobial resistance, climate change, crime and education.
Results from the project cover theoretical, methodological and empirical aspects. With respect to theory and conceptual developments, two journal articles – published in the Annals of the International Communication Association (Shehata et al., 2021) and Human Communication Research (Shehata et al., 2024) – provide distinct conceptualizations of media effect dynamics. With respect to methodological contributions, two articles – published in Journal of Communication (Thomas et al., 2021) and Human Communication Research (Shehata et al., 2024) – present and develop statistical approaches aimed at capturing more complex media effects dynamics. With respect to empirical findings, several publications provide important knowledge of how specific media effect dynamics actually operate over time. In sum, the findings illustrate that (1) beliefs about societal problems form and take shape relatively immediately in response to news coverage, that (2) individuals are sensitive to that the latest news frame they are exposed to but that (3) these framing effects dissipate quickly if people are not additionally exposed to a frame, that (4) cumulative and consonant news coverage can influence both the (5) maintenance and (6) reinforcement of beliefs over time, and that (7) individual-level factors such as ideology, media trust and interpersonal communication can both mediate and condition such effect dynamics.
With respect to empirical studies, the project has completed several data collections, including a long-term panel survey, several longitudinal event studies and experiments, as well as focus groups. All data collections are designed to address how citizens’ perceptions of societal problems develop over time and relate to news coverage and media use – focusing on issues such as antimicrobial resistance, climate change, crime, economy, education, European Union affairs, health care, and unemployment. The event-driven studies focus on climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, and education. Experiments focus on antimicrobial resistance, climate change, crime and education.
Results from the project cover theoretical, methodological and empirical aspects. With respect to theory and conceptual developments, two journal articles – published in the Annals of the International Communication Association (Shehata et al., 2021) and Human Communication Research (Shehata et al., 2024) – provide distinct conceptualizations of media effect dynamics. With respect to methodological contributions, two articles – published in Journal of Communication (Thomas et al., 2021) and Human Communication Research (Shehata et al., 2024) – present and develop statistical approaches aimed at capturing more complex media effects dynamics. With respect to empirical findings, several publications provide important knowledge of how specific media effect dynamics actually operate over time. In sum, the findings illustrate that (1) beliefs about societal problems form and take shape relatively immediately in response to news coverage, that (2) individuals are sensitive to that the latest news frame they are exposed to but that (3) these framing effects dissipate quickly if people are not additionally exposed to a frame, that (4) cumulative and consonant news coverage can influence both the (5) maintenance and (6) reinforcement of beliefs over time, and that (7) individual-level factors such as ideology, media trust and interpersonal communication can both mediate and condition such effect dynamics.
Both the theoretical conceptualization of long-term media effects developed as part of the project as well as the proposed empirical approach, provide key contributions to the field. The theoretical development and conceptualization expand and outline a variety of distinct media influences that go beyond what is commonly addressed in empirical research. As such, the theoretical framework provides a generic approach for understanding the processes and dynamics of media effects applicable to a wide range of more specific research questions and theories of media effects. This contribution is thereby widely applicable to a range of media effects studies.
The empirical studies conducted as part of the project addresses specific effect dynamics in ways that contribute to the literature both theoretically and empirically. Most importantly, empirical studies address long-term media effects such as belief maintenance and reinforcement over time, as well as the sequential dynamic between immediate (short-term) and cumulative (long-term) media effects on beliefs about societal problems, using a combination of longitudinal, event-driven and experimental research designs.
Taken together, the project offers both theoretical and methodological contributions that go beyond the state-of-the-art in research on media effects on public opinion.
The empirical studies conducted as part of the project addresses specific effect dynamics in ways that contribute to the literature both theoretically and empirically. Most importantly, empirical studies address long-term media effects such as belief maintenance and reinforcement over time, as well as the sequential dynamic between immediate (short-term) and cumulative (long-term) media effects on beliefs about societal problems, using a combination of longitudinal, event-driven and experimental research designs.
Taken together, the project offers both theoretical and methodological contributions that go beyond the state-of-the-art in research on media effects on public opinion.