Periodic Reporting for period 4 - REFUGEDEV (REFUGEES, POVERTY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH)
Reporting period: 2023-07-01 to 2024-06-30
According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), over 130 million people are now forcibly displaced—compared to just 37.5 million in 2010—meaning nearly one in every 100 people worldwide is either a refugee or internally displaced. Every three seconds, someone is displaced. Despite the headlines, what is often overlooked is that more than 86% of these displaced individuals reside in developing countries, with 60% located in fragile states. The 36 most fragile countries, which contribute just 2.6% to global GDP, host a staggering 71% of the world's forcibly displaced population.
As conflict intensifies, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, these numbers are expected to rise. The World Bank predicts that by 2030, nearly half (46%) of the global poor will live in fragile, conflict-affected regions. This presents enormous economic and political challenges for low-income states while increasing immigration pressures in wealthier nations. Managing refugee flows has thus become one of the most pressing policy challenges of our time.
The REFUGEDEV project addressed two key challenges: first, how to effectively manage displacement flows. By examining the Mozambican civil war (1977-1992) as a case study, REFUGEDEV sheds light on how various displacement paths—whether to refugee camps, rural areas, or cities—impact key outcomes like human capital development and shifts away from agricultural labor. The findings highlight the long-term consequences of displacement, revealing both opportunities for structural transformation (such as urban integration, increased educational investments and movements out of subsistence agriculture) but also the lasting social costs, such as poorer mental health and weakened social cohesion among displaced individuals, which is still felt three decades after the conflict.
The second key challenge is how to integrate refugees into the economic and social fabric of host communities. Given that over 74% of refugees never return home or resettle, this is an urgent issue for the Global South. Diverse groups of refugees, often traumatized by conflict, may strain social relations with local populations. Moreover, host governments worry that refugee support policies could attract more refugees and economic migrants. REFUGEDEV tests the effectiveness of income and employment support programs for both refugees and locals, finding that boosting financial security significantly improves trust, resource-sharing, and cross-group friendships. However, these gains in social cohesion proved fragile. When a devastating hurricane struck during the study, social cohesion faltered despite financial resilience, emphasizing the destabilizing impact of climate shocks on fragile communities. This underscores the need for policymakers to account for the broader, long-term effects of both economic policies and environmental vulnerabilities when managing refugee integration in fragile states.
As conflict intensifies, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, these numbers are expected to rise. The World Bank predicts that by 2030, nearly half (46%) of the global poor will live in fragile, conflict-affected regions. This presents enormous economic and political challenges for low-income states while increasing immigration pressures in wealthier nations. Managing refugee flows has thus become one of the most pressing policy challenges of our time.
The REFUGEDEV project addressed two key challenges: first, how to effectively manage displacement flows. By examining the Mozambican civil war (1977-1992) as a case study, REFUGEDEV sheds light on how various displacement paths—whether to refugee camps, rural areas, or cities—impact key outcomes like human capital development and shifts away from agricultural labor. The findings highlight the long-term consequences of displacement, revealing both opportunities for structural transformation (such as urban integration, increased educational investments and movements out of subsistence agriculture) but also the lasting social costs, such as poorer mental health and weakened social cohesion among displaced individuals, which is still felt three decades after the conflict.
The second key challenge is how to integrate refugees into the economic and social fabric of host communities. Given that over 74% of refugees never return home or resettle, this is an urgent issue for the Global South. Diverse groups of refugees, often traumatized by conflict, may strain social relations with local populations. Moreover, host governments worry that refugee support policies could attract more refugees and economic migrants. REFUGEDEV tests the effectiveness of income and employment support programs for both refugees and locals, finding that boosting financial security significantly improves trust, resource-sharing, and cross-group friendships. However, these gains in social cohesion proved fragile. When a devastating hurricane struck during the study, social cohesion faltered despite financial resilience, emphasizing the destabilizing impact of climate shocks on fragile communities. This underscores the need for policymakers to account for the broader, long-term effects of both economic policies and environmental vulnerabilities when managing refugee integration in fragile states.
REFUGEDEV aimed to understand the medium and long-term impact of conflict-induced forced displacement on investments in schooling and occupational shifts out of agriculture, based on the experience of a civil war in Mozambique that displaced over 4 million individuals between 1977 and 1992. I conducted extensive archival work to obtain information about the civil war and combined it with both census data and novel survey data to measure the long-term effects of displacement. In “Conflict, Forced Displacement and Human Capital” I reconstructed the movements of the Mozambican population during the war to examine the consequences of different displacement trajectories. Combining a movers design with a within-family comparison across children exposed to different displacement trajectories, I found that children who were in their primary school-going years when they moved to cities and to other rural areas were more likely to complete primary school and less likely to be employed in agriculture 5 years after the end of the war, compared to those who were displaced to refugee camps or those who stayed behind in their place of birth.
I conducted a survey in Mozambique’s third largest city, which experienced a threefold population increase due to war-related displacement and detected the lasting challenges of displacement: despite increased educational investments, those displaced continue to suffer from poorer mental health, diminished civic engagement and lower levels of trust even decades after the war. These findings demonstrate that displacement can stimulate human capital investments and break ties with subsistence agriculture, but that this can come at the cost of enduring social and psychological traumas that persist well beyond the immediate post-conflict period.
I also designed and implemented a randomized control trial in Northern Mozambique to understand the impact of changes in economic conditions of refugees and hosts on levels of social cohesion. I partnered successfully with UNHCR and the government of Mozambique to conduct the first evaluation of a graduation program to support livelihoods of both ultra-poor refugees and members of the host community.
In “Financial Security Climate Shocks and Social Cohesion”, I explore how attitudes towards refugees can change in response to changes in economic conditions. Through a randomized experiment, I find that boosting financial security of both refugees and hosts through income and employment support leads to higher levels of trust, new friendships with refugees, a greater willingness to share resources with them and a stronger sense of belonging.
The positive results from the project motivated its scale up to several similar settings worldwide. The key findings were incorporated into training events at UNHCR, showcased at the Global Refugee Forum in 2023 and were discussed in several policy events with the World Bank and FCDO (UK). I published two UNHCR policy briefs and a blog post to disseminate the findings of this research among a broader audience of policymakers.
I wrote, produced and directed a short documentary on the second project, which has been officially selected to screen in over 17 international film festivals worldwide and it has won 8 awards for best documentary, including in film festivals that celebrate social impact and awareness (ETHOS, Impact Docs, Berlin, Art of Brooklyn, Rome, London Film Awards, Toronto, Munich, among others).
I conducted a survey in Mozambique’s third largest city, which experienced a threefold population increase due to war-related displacement and detected the lasting challenges of displacement: despite increased educational investments, those displaced continue to suffer from poorer mental health, diminished civic engagement and lower levels of trust even decades after the war. These findings demonstrate that displacement can stimulate human capital investments and break ties with subsistence agriculture, but that this can come at the cost of enduring social and psychological traumas that persist well beyond the immediate post-conflict period.
I also designed and implemented a randomized control trial in Northern Mozambique to understand the impact of changes in economic conditions of refugees and hosts on levels of social cohesion. I partnered successfully with UNHCR and the government of Mozambique to conduct the first evaluation of a graduation program to support livelihoods of both ultra-poor refugees and members of the host community.
In “Financial Security Climate Shocks and Social Cohesion”, I explore how attitudes towards refugees can change in response to changes in economic conditions. Through a randomized experiment, I find that boosting financial security of both refugees and hosts through income and employment support leads to higher levels of trust, new friendships with refugees, a greater willingness to share resources with them and a stronger sense of belonging.
The positive results from the project motivated its scale up to several similar settings worldwide. The key findings were incorporated into training events at UNHCR, showcased at the Global Refugee Forum in 2023 and were discussed in several policy events with the World Bank and FCDO (UK). I published two UNHCR policy briefs and a blog post to disseminate the findings of this research among a broader audience of policymakers.
I wrote, produced and directed a short documentary on the second project, which has been officially selected to screen in over 17 international film festivals worldwide and it has won 8 awards for best documentary, including in film festivals that celebrate social impact and awareness (ETHOS, Impact Docs, Berlin, Art of Brooklyn, Rome, London Film Awards, Toronto, Munich, among others).
“Conflict, Forced Displacement and Human Capital” applies a movers design combined with a within-family comparison to identify the impact of different displacement trajectories on schooling and occupational outcomes. While these econometric methods have been developed in other literature, they were yet to be applied to the study of conflict and displacement in a low-income setting. This was also the first study to jointly quantify uprootedness and place-based effects to understand the implications of migration in a unified, low-income setting.
“Financial Security, Climate Shocks and Social Cohesion” documents the first impact evaluation of a graduation programme in a host-refugee setting. I also engaged in extensive knowledge exchange and impact activities as I worked hand in hand with UNHCR throughout the project. This project was disseminated through several UNHCR published policy briefs, blog posts and short videos. Our main findings were disseminated in internal UNHCR training events and were showcased in the Global Refugee Forum in Geneva in 2023.
“Financial Security, Climate Shocks and Social Cohesion” documents the first impact evaluation of a graduation programme in a host-refugee setting. I also engaged in extensive knowledge exchange and impact activities as I worked hand in hand with UNHCR throughout the project. This project was disseminated through several UNHCR published policy briefs, blog posts and short videos. Our main findings were disseminated in internal UNHCR training events and were showcased in the Global Refugee Forum in Geneva in 2023.