Periodic Reporting for period 1 - SAMPLING (Searching for the Approximation Method used to Perform rationaL inference by INdividuals and Groups)
Reporting period: 2019-04-01 to 2020-09-30
This promising approach has been used in existing work to explain biases in judgment. However, different algorithms have been used to explain different biases, and the existing data does not distinguish between sampling algorithms. The first aim of this project is to identify which sampling algorithm is used by the brain by collecting behavioural data on the sample generation process, and comparing it to a variety of sampling algorithms from computer science and statistics. The second aim is to show how the identified sampling algorithm can systematically generate classic probabilistic reasoning errors in individuals, with the goal of upending the longstanding consensus on these effects. Finally, the third aim is to investigate how the identified sampling algorithm provides a new perspective on group decision making biases and errors in financial decision making, and harness the algorithm to produce novel and effective ways for human and artificial experts to collaborate.
We are beginning work on the remaining project programmes, and expect to achieve our objectives by the end of the project.