Description du projet
Faire des prédictions relatives au changement climatique sur plusieurs décennies
Le changement climatique est partout autour de nous: des plus longues périodes de sécheresse à l’augmentation du nombre de tempêtes tropicales, en passant par la perte de la glace de mer et des vagues de chaleur plus intenses. Selon les scientifiques, le climat mondial devrait changer au cours de ce siècle, mais il faut améliorer les informations relatives à l’ampleur de ce changement au-delà de quelques décennies. Le projet CONSTRAIN, financé par l’UE, entend combler les lacunes en termes de connaissances dans le domaine de la science du climat et de l’élaboration de politiques grâce à une meilleure compréhension de la manière dont les facteurs naturels et humains affectent le changement climatique régional sur plusieurs décennies. Il aidera les scientifiques à réaliser des projections climatiques pour les 20 à 50 prochaines années. Les conclusions du projet profiteront à la stratégie d’adaptation et d’atténuation de l’UE.
Objectif
CONSTRAIN will focus research on three climate science knowledge gaps and a policy-facing knowledge gap that can be resolved over the next 4-5 years to significantly improve our understanding of how natural and human factors affect multi-decadal regional climate change. This will cement EU science as the world-leader in understanding climate sensitivity and climate variability, deliver significantly improved capability to make climate projections for the next 20-50 years, and provide up-to-date scientific evidence for international climate policy in two phases: Phase 1 will deliver a timely characterisation of physical science uncertainty and how it affects projections and committed levels of warming to the 2021 IPCC sixth assessment report; Phase 2 will deliver constrained surface temperature projections for the 2023 UNFCCC Global Stocktake. CONSTRAIN will take full advantage of climate model integrations from the sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and will leverage existing H2020 and ERC projects. Novel CMIP6 analyses will be combined with dedicated high resolution simulations and new observations to address identified knowledge gaps on radiative forcing, cloud feedbacks and the relationship between ocean variability and atmospheric change. A fourth identified knowledge gap is the effective translation of new physical science understanding into an improved evidence base for policy decisions. CONSTRAIN will address this by developing climate model emulators that integrate and operationalise learning from across the consortium to provide new capability to assess impacts of climate change under a broad range of emission scenarios. We will focus on the expected spatially resolved decadal changes until mid-century providing robust evidence on climate sensitivity, and regional temperature, precipitation and circulation changes, thereby enabling evidence-based policy decisions that will directly benefit the EU's adaptation and mitigation strategy.
Champ scientifique
Mots‑clés
Programme(s)
Régime de financement
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinateur
LS2 9JT Leeds
Royaume-Uni