Periodic Reporting for period 3 - CASCADES (CAScading Climate risks: towards ADaptive and resilient European Societies)
Período documentado: 2022-03-01 hasta 2023-12-31
Europe is strongly linked to the rest of the world via trade, supply and value chains, business operations, financial investments, as well as security and development policies. However, while climate change impacts in Europe are relatively well-studied and most European countries are aware of climate risks within their national territories, until recently relatively little was known about the cascading effects of climate change impacts and responses from beyond Europe..
CASCADES analysed the trade, political and financial channels through which climate change impacts outside Europe might cascade into Europe, significantly altering Europe’s risk exposure; and supported the design of coherent European policy recommendations to address these risks.
CASCADES built on climate change impact simulations to inform well-established models simulating changing trade patterns and supply chains, physical risks for climate adaptation to extreme events, and environmental impacts on agricultural production and global agricultural commodity markets.
CASCADES combined the results from these models with tailored sectoral and multi-sector network modeling, qualitative policy analysis and ‘serious games’, co-producing knowledge with key actors both inside and outside of Europe. In this way, it has revealed many interlinkages between sectors and across borders, helping to advance both the science behind and the political and societal salience of cascading and systemic climate risks. CASCADES’s policy recommendations show which key leverage points in the areas of trade, foreign policy and finance should be addressed to limit the effects of cascading climate risks on Europe.
CASCADES analysed the trade, political and financial channels through which climate change impacts outside Europe might cascade into Europe, significantly altering Europe’s risk exposure; and supported the design of coherent European policy recommendations to address these risks.
CASCADES built on climate change impact simulations to inform well-established models simulating changing trade patterns and supply chains, physical risks for climate adaptation to extreme events, and environmental impacts on agricultural production and global agricultural commodity markets.
CASCADES combined the results from these models with tailored sectoral and multi-sector network modeling, qualitative policy analysis and ‘serious games’, co-producing knowledge with key actors both inside and outside of Europe. In this way, it has revealed many interlinkages between sectors and across borders, helping to advance both the science behind and the political and societal salience of cascading and systemic climate risks. CASCADES’s policy recommendations show which key leverage points in the areas of trade, foreign policy and finance should be addressed to limit the effects of cascading climate risks on Europe.
CASCADES combined modeling outputs with conceptual work and expert engagement to deliver timely policy advice and recommendations to stakeholders. During the COVID-19 pandemic, physical stakeholder meetings took place online and empirical research in non-EU regions was re-designed. The consortium also applied lessons from the pandemic to cascading climate impacts and vice-versa resulting in a joint policy brief and scientific publication with RECEIPT. The consortium also analysed the impacts of the war on Ukraine to supply chains and the financial system (Auer et al. submitted).
The conceptual framework (Image 1) developed in WP2 has provided a common basis for the research on global trade, supply and value chains (WP3), foreign policy, security and development (WP4), and business and finance (WP5). It also served as a foundation for the governance framework and the overall synthesis developed in WP6. Both frameworks were applied within CASCADES as well as in joint activities with RECEIPT.
CASCADES integrated its main results using state-of-the-art network modeling techniques. The project also prepared a comprehensive report setting out strategic recommendations for European resilience to cascading risks, accompanied by a short summary for policymakers. Recommendations were presented across a ‘Roadshow of Research and Policy Results’ (images 2 and 3) in cities including Stockholm, Helsinki, Brussels, London and Istanbul, while copies of the summary report were distributed at the COP28 climate conference.
CASCADES also developed an educational ‘serious game’ for classroom or individual use, based on the successful and much sought-after policy exercises. The game has been promoted at several Roadshow events as well as through newsletters, blogs and online media platforms (image 2) and will be exploited beyond the lifetime of CASCADES.
The conceptual framework (Image 1) developed in WP2 has provided a common basis for the research on global trade, supply and value chains (WP3), foreign policy, security and development (WP4), and business and finance (WP5). It also served as a foundation for the governance framework and the overall synthesis developed in WP6. Both frameworks were applied within CASCADES as well as in joint activities with RECEIPT.
CASCADES integrated its main results using state-of-the-art network modeling techniques. The project also prepared a comprehensive report setting out strategic recommendations for European resilience to cascading risks, accompanied by a short summary for policymakers. Recommendations were presented across a ‘Roadshow of Research and Policy Results’ (images 2 and 3) in cities including Stockholm, Helsinki, Brussels, London and Istanbul, while copies of the summary report were distributed at the COP28 climate conference.
CASCADES also developed an educational ‘serious game’ for classroom or individual use, based on the successful and much sought-after policy exercises. The game has been promoted at several Roadshow events as well as through newsletters, blogs and online media platforms (image 2) and will be exploited beyond the lifetime of CASCADES.
CASCADES enjoyed considerable success on all fronts. The project engaged a broad set of stakeholders (e.g. focused on trade, supply chains, finance and international business) and contributed to a whole system understanding of the relevant stakeholders through workshops, policy briefs and the immersive ‘policy simulation’ method.
The project improved stakeholder knowledge of risk-management intervention points (i.e. policies and management strategies that help them steer future system development) by integrating research and policy activities on development and security issues, as well as trade choke points and developing impact assessment tools for the financial and insurance sectors (Image 3).
Publications from several different work packages were shared on Prevention Web, the knowledge platform of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. A WP4 report (Detges & Foong (2022)) fed into a confidential report to the UN Special Coordinator for development in the Sahel and formed the basis for a briefing of the Crisis Early Warning and Analysis Unit at the German Federal Foreign Office. Companies and financial investors have applied the climate stress test developed in WP5 to evaluate their exposure to climate-related risks internationally. CASCADES' policy exercises extended beyond the project, reaching various stakeholder groups from young professionals in the Arctic to high-level professionals in Brussels during the Food Alert event, creating a ripple effect.
CASCADES has produced video explainers, comment pieces, blogs and podcasts, and choreographed communication and dissemination activities. At the 5th ECCA conference in June 2021, which was co-organised by CASCADES, we released a range of social media outputs, including videos outlining the CASCADES conceptual framework and a promotional campaign around our strategic simulation exercise.
During COP26, Chatham House hosted a virtual ‘Climate Risk and Security Pavilion’, in which CASCADES played a major role, showcasing the innovative work taking place and bringing together a range of experts to discuss the challenges in grappling with cascading climate risks. Five CASCADES events were hosted, spanning the different workstreams, with high-level representatives from organisations including the European Central Bank, World Bank, and IPCC. The pavilion attracted nearly 2000 unique users from 120 countries. During COP27, CASCADES hosted a virtual platform dedicated to the project, and at COP28 the strategic recommendations were presented and well received by attending policymakers, leading to further invitations and engagements.
CASCADES has had a major impact on the international research community by pioneering and developing new methods and interdisciplinary analysis. Over 40 peer-reviewed journal articles and 17 policy briefs have been produced and were published in high-ranking journals such as Science, PNAS and Nature Climate Change. Several of these publications were cited in the IPCC AR6 WG2 report and laid the groundwork for decision text at COP28 on cascading climate risks for the first time: “recognizing that climate change impacts are often transboundary in nature and may involve complex, cascading risks that can benefit from collective consideration and knowledge-sharing, climate-informed transboundary management and cooperation on global adaptation solutions”.
The topic of ‘cascading and systemic risks’ has gained momentum within the scientific community, which led to a scientific conference on ‘Cascading climate change impacts and systemic risks in Europe and beyond’ co-organised by sister projects CASCADES and RECEIPT, bringing together an international and interdisciplinary group of scientists.
The project improved stakeholder knowledge of risk-management intervention points (i.e. policies and management strategies that help them steer future system development) by integrating research and policy activities on development and security issues, as well as trade choke points and developing impact assessment tools for the financial and insurance sectors (Image 3).
Publications from several different work packages were shared on Prevention Web, the knowledge platform of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. A WP4 report (Detges & Foong (2022)) fed into a confidential report to the UN Special Coordinator for development in the Sahel and formed the basis for a briefing of the Crisis Early Warning and Analysis Unit at the German Federal Foreign Office. Companies and financial investors have applied the climate stress test developed in WP5 to evaluate their exposure to climate-related risks internationally. CASCADES' policy exercises extended beyond the project, reaching various stakeholder groups from young professionals in the Arctic to high-level professionals in Brussels during the Food Alert event, creating a ripple effect.
CASCADES has produced video explainers, comment pieces, blogs and podcasts, and choreographed communication and dissemination activities. At the 5th ECCA conference in June 2021, which was co-organised by CASCADES, we released a range of social media outputs, including videos outlining the CASCADES conceptual framework and a promotional campaign around our strategic simulation exercise.
During COP26, Chatham House hosted a virtual ‘Climate Risk and Security Pavilion’, in which CASCADES played a major role, showcasing the innovative work taking place and bringing together a range of experts to discuss the challenges in grappling with cascading climate risks. Five CASCADES events were hosted, spanning the different workstreams, with high-level representatives from organisations including the European Central Bank, World Bank, and IPCC. The pavilion attracted nearly 2000 unique users from 120 countries. During COP27, CASCADES hosted a virtual platform dedicated to the project, and at COP28 the strategic recommendations were presented and well received by attending policymakers, leading to further invitations and engagements.
CASCADES has had a major impact on the international research community by pioneering and developing new methods and interdisciplinary analysis. Over 40 peer-reviewed journal articles and 17 policy briefs have been produced and were published in high-ranking journals such as Science, PNAS and Nature Climate Change. Several of these publications were cited in the IPCC AR6 WG2 report and laid the groundwork for decision text at COP28 on cascading climate risks for the first time: “recognizing that climate change impacts are often transboundary in nature and may involve complex, cascading risks that can benefit from collective consideration and knowledge-sharing, climate-informed transboundary management and cooperation on global adaptation solutions”.
The topic of ‘cascading and systemic risks’ has gained momentum within the scientific community, which led to a scientific conference on ‘Cascading climate change impacts and systemic risks in Europe and beyond’ co-organised by sister projects CASCADES and RECEIPT, bringing together an international and interdisciplinary group of scientists.