Europe follows a compelling research agenda within the field of aeronautics since year 2001. At that time, ambitious goals to be reached in the year 2020 have been defined for the European aviation sector and published in the “Vision 2020”. In 2011, the follow-up strategic document “Flightpath 2050” (FP2050) was released with even more challenging goals to be reached in year 2050.
One key element of the research strategy of the European Commission is the concentration of research power in Joint Technology Initiatives (JTI). For aeronautic research, the JTI Clean Sky was initiated, followed by JTI Clean Sky 2 (CS2). Building upon the FP2050-objectives but with a runtime until 2024 CS2 has defined individual goals:
1) Reduction of CO2 emissions and fuel burn by:
o 20% in 2025 compared to reference year 2014
o 30% in 2035 compared to reference year 2014
2) Reduction of NOx emissions by:
o 20% in 2025 compared to reference year 2014
o 40% in 2035 compared to reference year 2014
3) Reduction of population exposed to noise by 75% in 2035 compared to reference year 2014
Most objectives listed above apply to progress obtained on single vehicle level. An estimation of the achieved overall progress, i.e. reduction of CO2, NOx and noise emissions of aviation, requires an assessment on fleet level. The composition of a future fleet is, among others, dependent on new available technologies contributing to improved aircraft eco-efficiency. Thus, it is essential to know whether and to which extent new technologies find their way on the aircraft (either as new configuration or as retrofit). This question exactly forms the background to the project TeDiMo (Technology Diffusion Model).
The main objective of TeDiMo was to establish a technology diffusion model in the context of the Technology Evaluator (TE) that facilitates the investigation of the propagation of new technologies developed in Clean Sky 2. For that goal, stakeholders and drivers of the air transport system were identified, the impact of technologies developed within Clean Sky on the established diffusion drivers was analysed and a diffusion model was developed to simulate the diffusion of new technologies into the aviation market. The concept of the diffusion model has been proved and due to the agend-based nature of the model its functionality is easily extendable and it offers a wide range of application.
