Periodic Reporting for period 2 - TRIGGER (TRends In Global Governance and Europe’s Role)
Reporting period: 2019-12-01 to 2022-05-31
Over the past few years, the global governance landscape has been in constant turmoil. Before the start of the TRIGGER project, the achievements of 2015, such as the agreement on the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement, had been largely obfuscated by rising populism and nationalism, tensions and deteriorating trust between superpowers, the emergence of a digital cold war between the United States and China, the unprecedented exit of one large country from the EU. This pattern was further accelerated by the new crises affecting the European continent, such as the Covid-19 pandemic.
Against this background, the European Union increasingly has to play "solo" in the global order, and it needs to confront both the above-mentioned threats internally and externally. The role and strength of the EU chiefly depends on the way in which it is able to reach cohesion and both internal and external recognition, thereby becoming a strong "actor" in the global governance landscape. In relation to these challenges, TRIGGER had two overarching objectives: (1) To provide EU institutions with knowledge and tools to enhance their actorness, effectiveness and influence in global governance; and (2) to develop new ways to harness the potential of public engagement and participatory foresight in complex governance decisions.
In this context, TRIGGER aimed at helping the definition of new policy instruments, which could inspire more effective governance decisions in the future. First, lessons learnt from the analysis of the EU's involvement in several policy areas (sustainability, climate, digital technologies, development aid). Second, structured foresight activities that led to a better understanding of possible future scenarios. Third, enabled software tools for a swift perception of the impact of specific decisions on citizens' sentiment, as well as the co-creation of policy decisions with large audiences (COCTEAU software). Fourth, an integrated software platform developed for the design, co-creation, development, implementation and monitoring of public policy decisions (PERSEUS software).
Against this background, the European Union increasingly has to play "solo" in the global order, and it needs to confront both the above-mentioned threats internally and externally. The role and strength of the EU chiefly depends on the way in which it is able to reach cohesion and both internal and external recognition, thereby becoming a strong "actor" in the global governance landscape. In relation to these challenges, TRIGGER had two overarching objectives: (1) To provide EU institutions with knowledge and tools to enhance their actorness, effectiveness and influence in global governance; and (2) to develop new ways to harness the potential of public engagement and participatory foresight in complex governance decisions.
In this context, TRIGGER aimed at helping the definition of new policy instruments, which could inspire more effective governance decisions in the future. First, lessons learnt from the analysis of the EU's involvement in several policy areas (sustainability, climate, digital technologies, development aid). Second, structured foresight activities that led to a better understanding of possible future scenarios. Third, enabled software tools for a swift perception of the impact of specific decisions on citizens' sentiment, as well as the co-creation of policy decisions with large audiences (COCTEAU software). Fourth, an integrated software platform developed for the design, co-creation, development, implementation and monitoring of public policy decisions (PERSEUS software).
TRIGGER has fully achieved its two main general objectives by providing EU institutions with new knowledge and tools to enhance their actorness, effectiveness and influence in global governance, and in developing new ways to harness the potential of public engagement and participatory foresight in complex governance decisions. Yet, slight changes were made to increase the relevance and coherence of the project, but also to adapt to the challenges brought by the Covid-19 pandemic. In particular:
- TRIGGER helped advance the state of the art in understanding the evolution of global governance. The related datasets and reports are now freely available on the AGGREGATOR website. In this regard, TRIGGER researchers shaped new knowledge on the evolution of the EU’s interaction with global governance, and in particular the so-called “actorness” and “effectiveness”. Building up on the AGGREGATOR datasets, partners of the project have created comprehensive case studies (or ‘Deep Dives’) on four key topics: sustainable development, data protection, climate policy and EU-Africa partnership. These Deep Dives include qualitative and quantitative assessments of the level of EU actorness and effectiveness. As part of TRIGGER, several webinars were organised also in cooperation with other institutions (for example, ESPAS) and on a variety of topics connected to global governance and the EU, for instance EU’s role in the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis (CEPS, December 2020), “Trends and Shifts in Global Governance” (May 2021) and “Digital transformation and trends in artificial intelligence” (Kyrgyzstan, April 2022).
- TRIGGER also helped better understand how global governance and emerging technologies interact, and what role the EU plays in this respect, in particular in its role of “regulatory superpower”. Several papers related to open source technologies, distributed ledger technologies and artificial intelligence have been published in this respect, further disseminated in workshops and related events. These contributions also triggered a rapid reflection on the EU’s actorness levels in each of these areas, which was subject to a rapid assessment in a bootcamp in September 2020. The TRIGGER work on governing technology and governing “by” technology culminated in a workshop and recommendations for governance of AI systems in Europe (Florin 2022).
- Another dimension of the TRIGGER project was connected to foresight and the identification of emerging trends. Each of the four Deep Dives includes an extensive chapter on both global and EU governance in the respective domains and puts governance structures in relation to the EU’s actorness and effectiveness.
- Finally, TRIGGER has produced extensive reports on four foresight scenarios and further developed the foresight methodology. These scenarios were also the basis for setting up a new Strategy Group on “Berlin Futures” at the Institute for European Politics in Berlin/Germany, where workshops were held to discuss the scenarios (and resulting policy implications), with participants from across German Federal ministries, the chancellery, parliament and civil society. Moreover, the foresight team has worked to link the citizen engagement tool COCTEAU with user-friendly foresight scenarios. Lastly, AGGREGATOR and COCTEAU have been finalised and PERSEUS has united the different tools and research.
- TRIGGER helped advance the state of the art in understanding the evolution of global governance. The related datasets and reports are now freely available on the AGGREGATOR website. In this regard, TRIGGER researchers shaped new knowledge on the evolution of the EU’s interaction with global governance, and in particular the so-called “actorness” and “effectiveness”. Building up on the AGGREGATOR datasets, partners of the project have created comprehensive case studies (or ‘Deep Dives’) on four key topics: sustainable development, data protection, climate policy and EU-Africa partnership. These Deep Dives include qualitative and quantitative assessments of the level of EU actorness and effectiveness. As part of TRIGGER, several webinars were organised also in cooperation with other institutions (for example, ESPAS) and on a variety of topics connected to global governance and the EU, for instance EU’s role in the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis (CEPS, December 2020), “Trends and Shifts in Global Governance” (May 2021) and “Digital transformation and trends in artificial intelligence” (Kyrgyzstan, April 2022).
- TRIGGER also helped better understand how global governance and emerging technologies interact, and what role the EU plays in this respect, in particular in its role of “regulatory superpower”. Several papers related to open source technologies, distributed ledger technologies and artificial intelligence have been published in this respect, further disseminated in workshops and related events. These contributions also triggered a rapid reflection on the EU’s actorness levels in each of these areas, which was subject to a rapid assessment in a bootcamp in September 2020. The TRIGGER work on governing technology and governing “by” technology culminated in a workshop and recommendations for governance of AI systems in Europe (Florin 2022).
- Another dimension of the TRIGGER project was connected to foresight and the identification of emerging trends. Each of the four Deep Dives includes an extensive chapter on both global and EU governance in the respective domains and puts governance structures in relation to the EU’s actorness and effectiveness.
- Finally, TRIGGER has produced extensive reports on four foresight scenarios and further developed the foresight methodology. These scenarios were also the basis for setting up a new Strategy Group on “Berlin Futures” at the Institute for European Politics in Berlin/Germany, where workshops were held to discuss the scenarios (and resulting policy implications), with participants from across German Federal ministries, the chancellery, parliament and civil society. Moreover, the foresight team has worked to link the citizen engagement tool COCTEAU with user-friendly foresight scenarios. Lastly, AGGREGATOR and COCTEAU have been finalised and PERSEUS has united the different tools and research.
A number of research streams appear worthy of being pursued. Indeed, many of the TRIGGER research findings found their way into new research projects (including the CEPS-led PERISCOPE project, for Pan-European Response to the ImpactS of COVID-19 and future Pandemics and Epidemics), where additional funding is being made available to refine and upgrade the tools developed throughout the TRIGGER project. For instance, COCTEAU is being tested in various settings and cities, and even subject to study by students (in the AI4GOV project coordinated by the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid). In other words, this work continues beyond TRIGGER, thanks to the results reached until now.
The legacy of the TRIGGER project rests in its overall academic contribution to the future of policymaking. A future that is made of refined approaches to policy analysis, a new way to study actors of global governance and assess their performance, the development of new tools for engaging with citizens in policy decisions, and the introduction of alternative futures as a basis for strategic foresight. The combination of this tools shows a clear direction on the future of policymaking: an approach based on complementing evidence-based policymaking with interactive citizen and expert engagement for nowcasting policy impacts and individual preferences, as well as updating the risk landscape through continuous foresight. In a nutshell, a vision of institutions and actors of global governance as “learning systems”, exposed and constrained by the environments in which they operate, and co-evolving with all other actors in a world dominated by complexity.
The legacy of the TRIGGER project rests in its overall academic contribution to the future of policymaking. A future that is made of refined approaches to policy analysis, a new way to study actors of global governance and assess their performance, the development of new tools for engaging with citizens in policy decisions, and the introduction of alternative futures as a basis for strategic foresight. The combination of this tools shows a clear direction on the future of policymaking: an approach based on complementing evidence-based policymaking with interactive citizen and expert engagement for nowcasting policy impacts and individual preferences, as well as updating the risk landscape through continuous foresight. In a nutshell, a vision of institutions and actors of global governance as “learning systems”, exposed and constrained by the environments in which they operate, and co-evolving with all other actors in a world dominated by complexity.