The Future of Prediction: The Social Consequences of Algorithmic Forecast in Insurance, Medicine and Policing

Project Information

PREDICT

Grant agreement ID: 833749

DOI

10.3030/833749

EC signature date 18 July 2019

Start date 1 February 2020

End date 31 January 2026

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 2 084 429,00

EU contribution

€ 2 084 429,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITAET BIELEFELD
Germany

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (21)

Precision Epidemiology: A Computational Analysis of the Impact of Algorithmic Prediction on the Relationship Between Population Epidemiology and Clinical Epidemiology

Author(s): Elena Esposito, Paola Angelini, Sebastian Schneider
Published in: International Journal of Public Health, Issue 69, 2024, ISSN 1661-8564
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/ijph.2024.1607396

Beyond one-shot explanations: a systematic literature review of dialogue-based xAI approaches

Author(s): Dimitry Mindlin, Fabian Beer, Leonie Nora Sieger, Stefan Heindorf, Elena Esposito, Axel-Cyrille Ngonga Ngomo, Philipp Cimiano
Published in: Artificial Intelligence Review, Issue 58, 2025, ISSN 1573-7462
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1007/s10462-024-11007-7

Gambling on Claim Frequency: Loss Expectation and the Spread of Risks in the Making of Modern Insurance

Author(s): Alberto Cevolini
Published in: Soziale Systeme, Issue 25, 2023, Page(s) 329-353, ISSN 2366-0473
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH
DOI: 10.1515/sosys-2020-0024

In Palantir we trust? Regulation of data analysis platforms in public security

Author(s): Lena Ulbricht, Simon Egbert
Published in: Big Data & Society, Issue 11, 2025, ISSN 2053-9517
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/20539517241255108

Performance without understanding: How ChatGPT relies on humans to repair conversational trouble

Author(s): Ole Pütz, Elena Esposito
Published in: Discourse & Communication, Issue 18, 2025, Page(s) 859-868, ISSN 1750-4813
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/17504813241271492

Does Proactivity Affect Insurance Solidarity and Individual Responsibility?

Author(s): Alberto Cevolini, Elena Esposito
Published in: The British Journal of Sociology, 2025, ISSN 0007-1315
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/1468-4446.13230

A Pandemic of Prediction: On the Circulation of Contagion Models between Public Health and Public Safety

Author(s): Maximilian Heimstädt, Simon Egbert, Elena Esposito
Published in: Sociologica, Issue 19718853, 2021, Page(s) 1-24, ISSN 1971-8853
Publisher: Societa Editrice Il Mulino
DOI: 10.6092/issn.1971-8853/11470

Transparency versus explanation: The role of ambiguity in legal AI

Author(s): Elena Esposito
Published in: Journal of Cross-Disciplinary Research in Computational Law, Issue 1(1), 2021, ISSN 2736-4321
Publisher: COHUBICOL project

The role of data integration and analysis platforms in contemporary society: an introduction

Author(s): Simon Egbert, Vasilis Galis, Helene Oppen Ingebrigtsen Gundhus
Published in: Information, Communication & Society, Issue 27, 2024, Page(s) 2333-2342, ISSN 1369-118X
Publisher: Routledge
DOI: 10.1080/1369118x.2024.2433556

From pool to profile: Social consequences of algorithmic prediction in insurance

Author(s): Alberto Cevolini, Elena Esposito
Published in: Big Data & Society, Issue 7/2, 2020, Page(s) 205395172093922, ISSN 2053-9517
Publisher: SAGE
DOI: 10.1177/2053951720939228

Can we use the open future? Preparedness and innovation in times of self-generated uncertainty

Author(s): Elena Esposito
Published in: European Journal of Social Theory, Issue 27, 2025, Page(s) 209-224, ISSN 1368-4310
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/13684310231224546

Can Telematics Improve Driving Style? The Use of Behavioral Data in Motor Insurance

Author(s): Alberto Cevolini, Elena Morotti, Elena Esposito, Lorenzo Romanelli, Riccardo Tisseur, Cristiano Misani
Published in: Big Data and Cognitive Computing, Issue 9, 2025, Page(s) 225, ISSN 2504-2289
Publisher: MDPI AG
DOI: 10.3390/bdcc9090225

The Role of Algorithms in Molecular Tumour Boards—Managing the Gap Between Research and Clinic in Precision Medicine

Author(s): Dominik Hofmann, Elena Esposito
Published in: Sociology of Health & Illness, Issue 47, 2025, ISSN 0141-9889
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/1467-9566.70040

Actionable predictions: How designers of algorithmic systems calibrate criminal futures

Author(s): Maximilian Heimstädt, Simon Egbert
Published in: Big Data & Society, Issue 12, 2025, ISSN 2053-9517
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/20539517251340636

Data integration and analysis platforms as digital platforms: a conceptual proposal

Author(s): Simon Egbert, Lena Ulbricht
Published in: Information, Communication & Society, 2024, Page(s) 1-22, ISSN 1369-118X
Publisher: Routledge
DOI: 10.1080/1369118x.2024.2442394

Vorhersagen und Entscheiden<b>: Predictive Policing in Polizeiorganisationen</b>

Author(s): Simon Egbert, Elena Esposito, Maximilian Heimstädt
Published in: Soziale Systeme, Issue 26, 2024, Page(s) 189-216, ISSN 2366-0473
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH
DOI: 10.1515/sosys-2021-0007

Systemic Integration and the Need for De-Integration in Pandemic Times

Author(s): Esposito, Elena
Published in: Sociologica, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 3-20 (2020), Issue 19718853, 2020, Page(s) 3-20, ISSN 1971-8853
Publisher: Societa Editrice Il Mulino
DOI: 10.6092/issn.1971-8853/10853

Una cuestión de tiempo. Entrevista a Elena Esposito

Author(s): Elena Esposito, Aldo Mascareño, Consuelo Araos, Nicole Gardella
Published in: Estudios Públicos, 2024, Page(s) 147-170, ISSN 0718-3089
Publisher: Centro de Estudios Publicos
DOI: 10.38178/07183089/1100230823

Algorithmic crime prevention. From abstract police to precision policing

Author(s): Simon Egbert, Elena Esposito
Published in: Policing and Society, Issue 34, 2024, Page(s) 521-534, ISSN 1043-9463
Publisher: Routledge
DOI: 10.1080/10439463.2024.2326516

From Actuarial to Behavioural Valuation. The impact of telematics on motor insurance

Author(s): Alberto Cevolini, Elena Esposito
Published in: Valuation Studies, Issue 9, 2023, Page(s) 109-139, ISSN 2001-5992
Publisher: Linkoping University Electronic Press
DOI: 10.3384/vs.2001-5992.2022.9.1.109-139

CAN A PREDICTED FUTURE STILL BE AN OPEN FUTURE? ALGORITHMIC FORECASTS AND ACTIONABILITY IN PRECISION MEDICINE^*

Author(s): Elena Esposito, Dominik Hofmann, Costanza Coloni
Published in: History and Theory, Issue 63, 2024, Page(s) 4-24, ISSN 0018-2656
Publisher: Wesleyan University Press
DOI: 10.1111/hith.12327

Book chapters (5)

Predictive Policing: Die Digitalisierung als Präpressionstreiber

Author(s): Simon Egbert
Published in: Digitale Polizei - Aktuelle Einsatzfelder, Potenziale, Grenzen und Missstände, 2022
Publisher: Verlag für Polizeiwissenschaft

Unpredictable, Unforgettable

Author(s): Elena Esposito
Published in: Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin: Jahrbuch 2019/2020, 2021
Publisher: Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin

Algorithmic chains of translation

Author(s): Simon Egbert, Maximilian Heimstädt
Published in: States of Surveillance, 2024, Page(s) 111-127
Publisher: Routledge
DOI: 10.4324/9781003412908-8

40 Platforms

Author(s): Simon Egbert
Published in: De Gruyter Handbook of Digital Criminology, 2025, Page(s) 353-362
Publisher: De Gruyter
DOI: 10.1515/9783111062037-041

13. Algorithmic Futures: Governmentality and Prediction Regimes

Author(s): Simon Egbert
Published in: Algorithmic Regimes, 2024, Page(s) 265-286
Publisher: Amsterdam University Press
DOI: 10.1515/9789048556908-013

Other (4)

Using risk analytics to prevent accidents before they occur – the future of insurance

Author(s): Montserrat Guillen, Alberto Cevolini
Published in: Journal of Financial Transformation, 2021, Page(s) 76-83
Publisher: Capco

Coaching strategies in telematics motor insurance: control or motivation?

Author(s): Alberto Cevolini
Published in: Movingdots, 2022
Publisher: Movingdots

Die Vernetzung der Vorhersage

Author(s): Maximilian Heimstädt
Published in: Witten Lab Magazin, 2021, Page(s) 16-17
Publisher: WittenLab. Zukunftslabor Studium fundamentale

The Mysteries of Finance and the Observation of Observers

Author(s): Elena Esposito
Published in: Schemas of Uncertainty, 2022
Publisher: Callum Copley, Danae Io; Schemas of Uncertainty; Sandberg Institute

Non-peer reviewed articles (3)

Il futuro dell’assicurazione. Opportunità e minacce delle tecnologie digitali nell’assicurazione del futuro

Author(s): Alberto Cevolini, Elena Esposito
Published in: Futuri: Rivista Italiana di Future Studies, Issue 22840923, 2020, Page(s) 51-56, ISSN 2284-0923
Publisher: ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE

Author's Response: Opacity and Complexity of Learning Black Boxes

Author(s): Elena Esposito
Published in: Constructivist Foundations, Issue 1782348X, 2021, Page(s) 377-380, ISSN 1782-348X
Publisher: Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Systems Theory and Algorithmic Futures: Interview with Elena Esposito (with Katrin Sold and Bénédicte Zimmermann)

Author(s): Elena Esposito, Katrin Sold, Benedicte Zimmermann
Published in: Constructivist Foundations, Issue 1782348X, 2021, Page(s) 356-361, ISSN 1782-348X
Publisher: Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Monographic books (2)

Kommunikation mit unverständlichen Maschinen

Author(s): Elena Esposito
Published in: 2024, ISBN 9783701736096
Publisher: Residenz

Artificial Communication: How Algorithms Produce Social Intelligence

Author(s): Elena Esposito
Published in: <strong> ideas series, 2022, ISBN 9780262046664
Publisher: MIT Press
DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/14189.001.0001