Descripción del proyecto
Comprender el proceso de propagación
Los desplazamientos sociales son uno de los principales factores de propagación en una epidemia y pueden provocar avalanchas de contagios y pandemias mundiales. El proyecto CAOS, financiado con fondos europeos, no se limitará a un análisis asintótico e incluirá la interacción entre la topología y la dinámica de varios procesos de propagación. El objetivo principal es desarrollar métodos con los que identificar transiciones abruptas y comprender qué condiciones favorecen la aparición de pandemias. Los investigadores diseñarán además varias estrategias para contener este tipo de brotes, como las vacunaciones, la reducción de contactos y la disminución de tasas de contagio. El desarrollo de nuevos algoritmos proporcionará un conocimiento científico importante sobre los procesos de difusión fuera del equilibrio y respaldará las decisiones de formulación de políticas.
Objetivo
Spreading processes, such as cascading failure of technological networks, epidemic outbreak and contagion in social
networks are ubiquitous and have a significant impact on the modern society. In many cases, transitions to large-scale
blackouts or global pandemics occur abruptly due to tiny changes in system parameters; epidemics and social movements
can spread out explosively, forming avalanche-like outbreaks in a very short period. The drastic transitions are beneficial for
making global impact of boosting charity campaigns and commercial advertising but can also have catastrophic
consequences when epidemics or failures spread to large part of a critical systems abruptly, without any early warning
signals. Moreover, multiple cooperative of competitive spreading processes make the picture even more complex.
Previous work in this area focused on the asymptotic manifestation of the process and typically ignored the interplay
between specific system topology and the dynamics. Methods to monitor, identify and control drastic transitions and
outbreaks in heterogeneous realistic networks are lacking. In this project, we will investigate the signs for abrupt transitions
and avalanche outbreaks both macroscopically and in specific instances, to gain insight into the conditions for their onset.
We will develop methods to contain (or facilitate) the outbreaks by optimal deployment of resources, such as applying
vaccines or distributing promotion material by employing the recently developed dynamic message passing techniques from
statistical physics. We will collaborate with British Telecom to promote product marketing and service provision by using the
new optimisation algorithms. This project will have significant impact on the scientific understanding of non-equilibrium
spreading processes, provide algorithmic solutions for practical problems in specific instances, will support policy making
decisions and offer optimal resource allocation for commercial marketing tasks.
Ámbito científico
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
MSCA-IF-EF-ST - Standard EFCoordinador
B4 7ET Birmingham
Reino Unido