UnderSCORE is a proof of concept web-based Decision Support System (DSS) to score forest understorey dynamics in response to management interventions in a changing world. Currently, forest management models focus predominantly on tree dynamics following interventions, and tend to ignore the plant species found below the trees on the forest floor (the understorey). This is a crucial oversight, as the understorey is the major component of biodiversity; provides vital ecosystem services (properties that ensure human wellbeing: e.g. food supply, pollinator habitat and resources, recreational visits for wildflowers); and, can influence the overall functioning of the forest with its impact on – for instance - nutrient cycling and forest regeneration. A greater emphasis from policy makers and society on maintaining and enhancing biodiversity values of forests requires managers and auditors to be aware of likely outcomes of management interventions for the understorey. However, there is a general ignorance of such outcomes. As such, there is a need for a user-friendly tool to help predict key understorey plant performance indicators (e.g. biodiversity, share of species of conservation concern) across environmental contexts (e.g. macroclimate space, land-use history) and overstorey tree management (e.g. timber species choice, forest management systems, rotation times). The construction of a user-friendly tool requires an underlying model that can predict forest understorey dynamics in relation to environmental and management contexts.
At the start of the project, we sent a questionnaire to 800+ decision-makers of various occupations from across Europe, asking about their perceived management challenges, motivations and targets. In this questionnaire, we did not initially reveal the understorey focus to prevent bias in responses. Later, we explored what kind of understorey output data and requirements decision-makers would need from a potential Decision Support System (DSS) to match their management objectives. In tandem, we reviewed the available literature for any available DSS with an understorey component. The questionnaire yielded 100 complete responses from 20 countries. Without a distinction between occupation, decision-makers considered biodiversity, climate change & forest regeneration as “very important”. Meanwhile, the understory was regarded as simply “important”, even though the understorey has a known functional role influencing the main focus areas. Replies for Specific Understorey targets indicated again the importance of biodiversity (species of conservation concern) and tree regeneration in its management. Additionally, we found a severe lack of DSS that consider understorey dynamics, especially within changing environmental conditions. Based on these insights we developed UnderSCORE, an understorey DSS prototype that can be accessed via the PASTFORWARD-website (www.pastforward.ugent.be) and that allows making predictions of the effects of multiple global change drivers on several key understorey biodiversity indicators. The UnderSCORE DSS is a first step towards a more elaborate tool that, in the future, should allow to make predictions at the forest level and not only at the regional level as is currently the case.
