Periodic Reporting for period 2 - TRANSCEND (Technology Review of Alternative and Novel Sources of Clean Energy with Next-generation Drivetrains)
Reporting period: 2021-01-01 to 2022-08-31
Decarbonisation of European aviation is under threat, TRANSCEND concludes. A shortage of European feedstocks for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will limit European aviation’s ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from 2035 onwards. This shortage means that greenhouse gas emissions will only be 40% lower in 2050 compared to a situation with aircraft powered solely by fossil kerosene, whereas sufficient SAF availability could double this reduction. These conclusions hold for two situations. In one such situation, aircraft powered by green hydrogen are being operated from 2035 on short and medium-haul flights. In the other situation, such aircraft do not enter service, and additional SAF-powered aircraft are used instead.
TRANSCEND has been carried out within the Technology Evaluator of the European Clean Sky 2 research programme and NLR’s Climate-Neutral Aviation programme, in collaboration with TU Delft. TRANSCEND, which started in 2019 and recently concluded, investigated novel propulsion technologies and alternative energy sources for aviation, as potential key contributors to climate-neutral aviation. The study focused on SAFs and green hydrogen as alternative energy sources and on propulsion technologies for hydrogen-powered aircraft with the aim to evaluate their contribution to reducing climate and environmental impact through to 2050 and to evaluate the availability and economic viability of these alternative fuels.
TRANSCEND introduced hydrogen-powered aircraft in the segments for up to 300 passengers on flights of up to approximately 3700 kilometres. By 2050, this introduction has the potential to reduce global aviation in-flight CO2 emissions by 16 to 20% compared to the situation of only SAF-powered aircraft in the same traffic scenario. Restricting the evaluation to flights departing from EU and UK only, TRANSCENDS found that the total use of well-to-wake energy (total amount of energy required for the operation of a flight, including the energy required for fuel production) would be 25% lower and fuel costs for airlines would be 10% lower with hydrogen-powered aircraft than in the situation with only SAF-powered aircraft.
TRANSCEND has been carried out within the Technology Evaluator of the European Clean Sky 2 research programme and NLR’s Climate-Neutral Aviation programme, in collaboration with TU Delft. TRANSCEND, which started in 2019 and recently concluded, investigated novel propulsion technologies and alternative energy sources for aviation, as potential key contributors to climate-neutral aviation. The study focused on SAFs and green hydrogen as alternative energy sources and on propulsion technologies for hydrogen-powered aircraft with the aim to evaluate their contribution to reducing climate and environmental impact through to 2050 and to evaluate the availability and economic viability of these alternative fuels.
TRANSCEND introduced hydrogen-powered aircraft in the segments for up to 300 passengers on flights of up to approximately 3700 kilometres. By 2050, this introduction has the potential to reduce global aviation in-flight CO2 emissions by 16 to 20% compared to the situation of only SAF-powered aircraft in the same traffic scenario. Restricting the evaluation to flights departing from EU and UK only, TRANSCENDS found that the total use of well-to-wake energy (total amount of energy required for the operation of a flight, including the energy required for fuel production) would be 25% lower and fuel costs for airlines would be 10% lower with hydrogen-powered aircraft than in the situation with only SAF-powered aircraft.
TRANSCEND ‘s literature study provides a detailed overview on alternative energy sources and novel propulsion concepts for aviation. TRANSCEND has selected five promising SAFs and green hydrogen as alternative energy sources and selected seven classes of associated low-to-zero carbon propulsion concepts. The selection of these sustainable aviation fuels and green hydrogen is based on the techno-economic and environmental performance of their production routes through literature review, data collection, experts’ workshops, and online surveys. The technological and ecological evaluation of the main SAFs haven been made as well available in user-friendly and comprehensive ecological balance sheets.
TRANSCEND has modelled three representative hydrogen-powered aircraft for entry-into-service in 2035: with fuel cell based propulsion and 1000km-range for seat class 20-100, with combustion-based propulsion and 2000nm-range for seat class 211-200, and with hybrid fuel cell/combustion based propulsion and 2000nm-range for seat classes 101-210. These aircraft have been evaluated on their gross gaseous emissions and energy consumption. Modelling approach and preliminary results were validated in an expert workshop.
TRANSCEND has evaluated the gross gaseous emissions, energy consumption of aviation until 2050 in global traffic scenario’s from the 1st assessment by the Clean Sky 2 technology evaluator, with hydrogen-powered aircraft up to 300 seats for flights as modelled and SAF-powered aircraft for the other flights. This situation was compared with the situation that such aircraft do not enter service, and additional SAF-powered aircraft are used instead. Efficiency improvements through innovative aircraft technology modelled in the situations with and without hydrogen-powered aircraft were kept identical to allow a fair comparison. Amounts of green hydrogen and SAFs needed were evaluated for flights departing EU and UK.
European supply of feedstock for the bio/waste-based fuels, synthetic aviation fuel, and green hydrogen has been investigated based on literature study, including as well a specific, detailed study for bio/waste-based fuels on national level in Europe. The resulting availability of these fuels was set against the evaluated aviation’s needs and against fuel supply targets of the European Commission.
Three roadmaps have been provided for the availability of bio/waste-based SAF, synthetic SAF and green hydrogen. Two roadmaps have been provided for SAF-powered propulsion and for hydrogen-powered propulsion. Together, these roadmaps aim the predicted impact to become reality.
Nine strategic recommendations have been issued to policy makers and industry.
TRANSCEND has modelled three representative hydrogen-powered aircraft for entry-into-service in 2035: with fuel cell based propulsion and 1000km-range for seat class 20-100, with combustion-based propulsion and 2000nm-range for seat class 211-200, and with hybrid fuel cell/combustion based propulsion and 2000nm-range for seat classes 101-210. These aircraft have been evaluated on their gross gaseous emissions and energy consumption. Modelling approach and preliminary results were validated in an expert workshop.
TRANSCEND has evaluated the gross gaseous emissions, energy consumption of aviation until 2050 in global traffic scenario’s from the 1st assessment by the Clean Sky 2 technology evaluator, with hydrogen-powered aircraft up to 300 seats for flights as modelled and SAF-powered aircraft for the other flights. This situation was compared with the situation that such aircraft do not enter service, and additional SAF-powered aircraft are used instead. Efficiency improvements through innovative aircraft technology modelled in the situations with and without hydrogen-powered aircraft were kept identical to allow a fair comparison. Amounts of green hydrogen and SAFs needed were evaluated for flights departing EU and UK.
European supply of feedstock for the bio/waste-based fuels, synthetic aviation fuel, and green hydrogen has been investigated based on literature study, including as well a specific, detailed study for bio/waste-based fuels on national level in Europe. The resulting availability of these fuels was set against the evaluated aviation’s needs and against fuel supply targets of the European Commission.
Three roadmaps have been provided for the availability of bio/waste-based SAF, synthetic SAF and green hydrogen. Two roadmaps have been provided for SAF-powered propulsion and for hydrogen-powered propulsion. Together, these roadmaps aim the predicted impact to become reality.
Nine strategic recommendations have been issued to policy makers and industry.
TRANSCEND has issued nine strategic recommendations to policymaking and industrial parties to obtain the predicted alignment of European Commission targets and supply of SAFs and green hydrogen in 2030 and to contribute to climate neutrality in aviation from 2035 towards 2050. The strategic recommendations mainly address ensuring regulations needed for the use of aircraft powered by liquid hydrogen before 2028, studying the full climate impact of new fuels, developing sustainable aviation fuels not requiring blending with fossil kerosene, continuing at European, national, regional and private levels the development of required technologies for energy-efficient SAF-powered and hydrogen-powered aircraft for regional and short/medium range, ensuring the European supply of SAF and green hydrogen, ensuring sufficient availability of renewable electricity and biomass/waste for the production of fuels to meet the European Commission targets, and assessing the impact of cost increases due to the increased use of alternative fuels on aviation demand and emissions, and possibly introduced policies to reduce negative effects.
Considerations and comments accompanying these strategic recommendations include detailed values as obtained from TRANSCEND, including amounts for bio/wasted-based and synthetic SAFs, for green hydrogen, and for renewable electricity to satisfy the targets proposed by the European Commission.
In addition to this expected contribution to objectives on environmental impacts and climate impact reduction, TRANSCEND, through its publicly available results:
• Improves the innovation capacity and integration of multi-disciplinary knowledge for alternative energy sources and novel aircraft propulsion.
• Strengthens European competitiveness in the aviation market, which will change to environmentally reduced aviation solutions and provides new opportunities to European industry.
• Strengthens European competitiveness in the new market of alternative (aviation) fuels and energy sources.
• Contributes to global mobility in our society, by serving society’s needs on global mobility and environment together.
• Provides young researchers the knowledge about the state-of-the-art to address their and future generation’s environmental and mobility needs.
Considerations and comments accompanying these strategic recommendations include detailed values as obtained from TRANSCEND, including amounts for bio/wasted-based and synthetic SAFs, for green hydrogen, and for renewable electricity to satisfy the targets proposed by the European Commission.
In addition to this expected contribution to objectives on environmental impacts and climate impact reduction, TRANSCEND, through its publicly available results:
• Improves the innovation capacity and integration of multi-disciplinary knowledge for alternative energy sources and novel aircraft propulsion.
• Strengthens European competitiveness in the aviation market, which will change to environmentally reduced aviation solutions and provides new opportunities to European industry.
• Strengthens European competitiveness in the new market of alternative (aviation) fuels and energy sources.
• Contributes to global mobility in our society, by serving society’s needs on global mobility and environment together.
• Provides young researchers the knowledge about the state-of-the-art to address their and future generation’s environmental and mobility needs.