Project description
Forecasting future scenarios for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles and supersonic aircraft
The environmental impact of future advanced configurations like Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles and supersonic transport (SST) aircraft is attracting increasing attention today. The EU-funded OASyS (Overall Air Transport System Vehicle Scenarios) project will forecast future scenarios for these vehicles in the 2035-2050 timeframe. It will examine current prediction models, and detect cases and guidelines to identify and meet data coverage gaps. The project will utilize the IDEA algorithm which is a System Dynamics model representing sector equilibrium of different categories of aircraft classes regulating supply and demand. It has been used to predict the impact new aviation technologies will have on the environment. This effort will provide Clean Sky’s Technology Evaluator (TE) with an enhanced modelling capability to estimate the impacts of potential scenarios that include these advanced configuration aircraft with regards to their technology portfolio within the global fleet.
Objective
Overall Air Transport System Vehicle Scenarios (OASyS)
OASyS proposes to develop scenarios for future UAV and supersonic aircraft covering 2035 and 2050. This is accomplished by first surveying existing forecasts and identifying primary assumptions and drivers. This information will then be used to identify and fill data coverage gaps. The generation of the forecast scenarios is then accomplished by leveraging an existing, in-house model and adapting it to include the required data coverage and new types of vehicles. The leaping-off point is the IDEA algorithm that is a System Dynamics model of the future of aviation that models supply and demand as a sector equilibrium of different types of aircraft classes. IDEA uses the known aviation data as its baseline and point of departure that can then be influenced by various scenario variables that will deviate from the baseline. IDEA has been used in the past to predict the impact of technology portfolios and their introduction dates to the environmental outcomes of aviation and has undergone model improvement over the last few years. Specifically, the model has been modified already to forecast supersonic aircraft scenarios. This forecast algorithm is dependent on vehicle specific characteristics as well as population demographics such as location and income. The OASyS team proposes to generate forecasts that can be used to integrate with the Clean Sky 2 Technology Evaluator. The outcome will be a set of scenarios that will enhance the CS2 Technology Evaluator and can be used to study the impact of UAV and supersonic aircraft across the fleet in global ATS contexts such as environmental impacts. The OASyS team will deliver the scenarios along with detailed reports and project documentation.
Fields of science
Programme(s)
Funding Scheme
CSA - Coordination and support actionCoordinator
75794 Paris
France