Periodic Reporting for period 4 - LOSS (Narratives of Loss: Unravelling the Origins of Support for Socially Conservative Political Agendas)
Reporting period: 2024-09-01 to 2025-02-28
The LOSS project examined how economic adversity fuels support for socially conservative and exclusionary political views, particularly those that limit the rights of minorities, migrants, and women. It aimed to understand how tough economic times create feelings of loss—status, security, recognition—and how these emotions translate into support for anti-liberal agendas. The project also explored how government policies and access to public services (like healthcare, education, and transport) shape this relationship. Research focused on three outcomes: prejudice toward marginalised groups, support for restrictive policies, and voting for far-right parties. Findings showed that major economic shocks—such as industry collapse or environmental disasters—can increase far-right support, especially in communities already feeling neglected by the state. This effect is intensified when local narratives interpret these shocks as signs of long-standing government failure. Public service deprivation emerged as another key driver: areas with poorer access to essential services were more likely to support the far right, suggesting that dissatisfaction stems not only from economics or culture, but also from perceived exclusion from state benefits. The project also studied how falling migrant remittances in Central and Eastern Europe and the Caucasus contribute to political discontent in migration-dependent communities. Additionally, it explored how gender dynamics influence political behaviour, finding that rising female labour market participation can spark a backlash among men in politicised contexts, though this does not always lead to far-right support unless gender becomes a political flashpoint. Historical divides, such as those between East and West Germany, continue to shape women’s political engagement. Finally, the project highlighted the power of collective narratives—how communities frame their identity and position in society—which influences attitudes toward institutions like the EU. These insights underscore how economic strain, public service inequality, and cultural narratives combine to shape exclusionary political trends. By blending methods from surveys to fieldwork, the LOSS project offers a nuanced understanding of why many across Europe are turning to far-right parties—and how policy responses could help counter this shift.
From the start, the LOSS project focused on developing a clear understanding of political narratives and collecting data across countries to examine how economic adversity relates to support for far-right parties and socially conservative attitudes. Early work developed a theoretical framework defining political narratives as the links people and elites draw between their experiences and the broader political order. Building on this, the project explored how economic hardship fuels support for socially conservative agendas, focusing in particular on the role of public service provision. A key finding was that reduced access to public services—such as healthcare, education, and transport—helps explain regional variations in far-right support, as these gaps heighten anxieties over immigration and competition. Evidence from Italy showed that public service deprivation, especially in smaller municipalities affected by state retrenchment, triggered feelings of exclusion and strengthened support for far-right parties. These services provide not only material resources but also define who is included in the political community—making service loss a powerful cultural signal. This was further supported by research in southern Italy, where the economic shock caused by a plant disease devastating olive groves led to increased far-right support, closely tied to local narratives of abandonment. The project also expanded its scope beyond Western Europe, showing that declining migrant remittances in Central and Eastern Europe and the Caucasus intensified feelings of being left behind and shifted political preferences toward the far right. In addition, the project explored how economic hardship intersects with gender dynamics. Findings suggest that in areas where female labour force participation rises and gender becomes politicised, some men adopt more conservative gender views, potentially reinforcing support for socially conservative politics. In Germany, persistent differences between East and West in gender norms continue to shape political engagement, particularly among women. The LOSS project has significantly influenced debate on the consequences of public service decline. Its findings were featured in a major policy report by the Brookings Institution on taxation, representation, and migration. The results also gained media attention, including coverage in The New York Times, which highlighted how service cuts in Italian municipalities fed anti-immigration sentiment and strengthened far-right parties. Commentaries based on the research also appeared in The Financial Times and The Guardian, helping to bring these insights into wider public and policy discussions.
Many European societies have recently experienced growing prejudice towards marginalised groups and the rise in support for far-right parties advocating to restrict the rights of these groups. These developments threaten the cohesion of national and local communities across Europe. While aggregate level evidence suggests that economic crises generally coincide with increased support for far-right parties, we do not understand why this happens. By moving beyond the state of the art and developing a groundbreaking interdisciplinary theoretical framework that integrates insights about the role of loss from different social science disciplines (political science, sociology, social psychology and behavioural economics), the LOSS project has demonstrated how adverse economic change translates into specific narratives of loss that in turn trigger support for social conservative political agendas. The LOSS project has also demonstrated that the relationship between economic adversity and the support for social conservatism varies across countries and regions within the country based on public good provision. The project has developed a new theory of public service deprivation to explain the far-right turn in politics. The focus of the project is European-wide, but also presented insight from specific cases, including Italy, the Netherlands and the UK among other countries. The LOSS project developed an integrative methodological approach combining qualitative and quantitative research methodologies. It has provided methodological innovation as a blueprint for other work that wishes to combine state of the art causal inference methods with in-depth ethnographic works in selected cases. The project developed a set of research articles and a book.