Periodic Reporting for period 2 - DOWN2EARTH (DOWN2EARTH: Translation of climate information into multilevel decision support for social adaptation, policy development, and resilience to water scarcity in the Horn of Africa Drylands)
Reporting period: 2022-03-01 to 2023-08-31
The Horn of Africa drylands (HAD) depend on seasonal rainfall for subsistence agriculture and pastoralism, so they are extremely vulnerable to water scarcity and food insecurity during droughts. DOWN2EARTH is examining the links between key seasonal climate, water scarcity, food insecurity, and the consequential impacts to livelihoods and well-being for rural communities in HAD. We are facilitating community-centered adaptation and resilience to climate change impacts through the delivery of community-relevant climate services that focus on water scarcity and its consequences at or near the Earth’s surface (hence DOWN2EARTH).
Our project activities are aimed at improving regional climate services delivery, promoting adaptation to climate change for HAD through new and enhanced decision-support tools, capacity building, citizen science, information dissemination to improve multi-level decision making, expansion of data networks, and climate change adaptation policy implementation.
The thematic objectives of DOWN2EARTH are to:
A. Assess the socio-economic dimensions and human dynamics of climate change in HAD including feedbacks between climatic shocks, human behavior, and policy implementation;
B. Characterize and quantify historical trends and future projections of climate change, and interactions between water scarcity, food insecurity, population, land use, and the policy environment in HAD;
C. Develop and enhance multi-level decision-support tools that emphasize the translation of climate information into critical land and water information required for near-term and long-term adaptation and resilience by communities, state/regional governments, NGOs, and humanitarian and development organizations; and
D. Strengthen regional climate adaptation and resilience through capacity building, citizen science, information dissemination to improve multi-level decision making
Our project activities are aimed at improving regional climate services delivery, promoting adaptation to climate change for HAD through new and enhanced decision-support tools, capacity building, citizen science, information dissemination to improve multi-level decision making, expansion of data networks, and climate change adaptation policy implementation.
The thematic objectives of DOWN2EARTH are to:
A. Assess the socio-economic dimensions and human dynamics of climate change in HAD including feedbacks between climatic shocks, human behavior, and policy implementation;
B. Characterize and quantify historical trends and future projections of climate change, and interactions between water scarcity, food insecurity, population, land use, and the policy environment in HAD;
C. Develop and enhance multi-level decision-support tools that emphasize the translation of climate information into critical land and water information required for near-term and long-term adaptation and resilience by communities, state/regional governments, NGOs, and humanitarian and development organizations; and
D. Strengthen regional climate adaptation and resilience through capacity building, citizen science, information dissemination to improve multi-level decision making
DOWN2EARTH is in full swing and as we shift from the research phase to the innovation/implementation phase of the project. We have made substantial progress in: 1) characterising the climate and hydrology of the HAD region; 2) building modelling tools to simulate hydrological responses to climate at useful spatial scales; 3) completing rural community research in all three countries aimed at understanding the challenges and opportunities for delivering bespoke climate services; 4) completing historical analysis of climate-related policies at national and subnational scales; 5) developing an agent-based model (ABM) to assess the interactions between human behaviours, policies and climate forcing; 6) investing in new automatic weather stations to fill in gaps in existing data collection in the HAD; 7) mentoring and training journalists across the HAD to report on climate-related content; 8) organising various outreach and engagement events spanning scales from rural communities to institutional decision makers; 9) developing user-centric technologies aimed at providing bespoke climate services to different audiences for distinct sets of decision making; and 10) increasing institutional capacity to assess the risks of impacts to multiple sectors of seasonal climate forecasts. These will be elaborated on below.
DOWN2EARTH is a multi- and inter-disciplinary project that will translate climate information into useful metrics of water scarcity/food security, decision-support tools, warning systems, media communication, and policy in the context of socio-economic data and community input. Our deliverables will aid in the development of short-term adaptation responses to climatic shocks at community and governance levels, and support the creation of policies and far-reaching methods of communication designed to achieve long-term resilience to climate change within rural communities of HAD. Key attributes of this project will ensure its long-term success: gendered community input and communication; a novel, efficient, and open-source, co-designed regional modeling structure, hosted and implemented on servers at ICPAC, for assessing impacts of climate forecasts and future climate projections; and a mobile phone app for delivering seasonal water and food security forecasts to agro-pastoralist end-users.
DOWN2EARTH has participated in four Greater Horn of Africa Outlook Forums. We presented our novel seasonal water forecasts as a pilot for the Ewaso Ng’iro River basin in Kenya, based on our open source DRYP model. These water forecasts are now featured within the East Africa Hazards Watch. The longer-term plan is to expand the catchment analysis to Ethiopia and Somaliland, and later to provide them on a gridded basis for the entire HAD region as part of the seasonal GHACOFs. The Useful Water And Land Information in Drylands (CUWALID) model framework will incorporate stochastic climatic drivers that will filter climate forecasts and projections for assessment of their impacts on water and food security.
Fieldwork in rural communities of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somaliland involved focus groups and interviews focused on understanding the challenges faced by agro-pastoralists under the ongoing influence of climate-related disasters and on decision making in light of these pressures. This work has been led by a cross section of folks from our Community Research, Engagement and Impact Team, who are now planning and carrying out the next phase of rural research, which involves more detailed one-to-one interviews with individuals from different demographic groups.
Our Policy Development Team has been assessing the historical policy environment for the HAD region while exploring the role of subnational government in supporting climate adaptation policies. This work will be incorporated into the agent-based modeling (ABM) work that will explore the range of potential outcomes for rural community adaptation to climate change based on a set of policies and climate forcing.
The Climate/Water Data Team has been working to characterize both historical and future climate for the HAD region through a survey of existing literature and new approaches to analyze existing climate information. These efforts will inform our hydrological modeling of seasonal forecasts and future climate change projections and their impacts on lives and livelihoods in HAD. There are major data gaps in HAD with respect to meteorological data especially in Somalia. We are currently in discussions with ICPAC, FAO-SWALIM, and the Somali government to invest in new automatic weather stations for this sparsely gauged area.
Our Dissemination and Communication Team has been engaging with radio stations and audiences via mentoring on how to report on climate-related issues. This has culminated in a new massive open online course (MOOC) designed to train journalists to report on climate (in English and Swahili), and we are currently working to have this course translated into the Somali language. We are currently working with EU Horizon 2020 sister projects, CONFER and FOCUS-Africa, to create a series of webinars and podcasts, building off a webinar we held at the end of 2021, called Understanding Seasonal Forecasts in Africa: Q&A With Climate Scientists. The webinars will be hosted at ICPAC, while we plan to release the podcast series at the COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh.
DOWN2EARTH has participated in four Greater Horn of Africa Outlook Forums. We presented our novel seasonal water forecasts as a pilot for the Ewaso Ng’iro River basin in Kenya, based on our open source DRYP model. These water forecasts are now featured within the East Africa Hazards Watch. The longer-term plan is to expand the catchment analysis to Ethiopia and Somaliland, and later to provide them on a gridded basis for the entire HAD region as part of the seasonal GHACOFs. The Useful Water And Land Information in Drylands (CUWALID) model framework will incorporate stochastic climatic drivers that will filter climate forecasts and projections for assessment of their impacts on water and food security.
Fieldwork in rural communities of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somaliland involved focus groups and interviews focused on understanding the challenges faced by agro-pastoralists under the ongoing influence of climate-related disasters and on decision making in light of these pressures. This work has been led by a cross section of folks from our Community Research, Engagement and Impact Team, who are now planning and carrying out the next phase of rural research, which involves more detailed one-to-one interviews with individuals from different demographic groups.
Our Policy Development Team has been assessing the historical policy environment for the HAD region while exploring the role of subnational government in supporting climate adaptation policies. This work will be incorporated into the agent-based modeling (ABM) work that will explore the range of potential outcomes for rural community adaptation to climate change based on a set of policies and climate forcing.
The Climate/Water Data Team has been working to characterize both historical and future climate for the HAD region through a survey of existing literature and new approaches to analyze existing climate information. These efforts will inform our hydrological modeling of seasonal forecasts and future climate change projections and their impacts on lives and livelihoods in HAD. There are major data gaps in HAD with respect to meteorological data especially in Somalia. We are currently in discussions with ICPAC, FAO-SWALIM, and the Somali government to invest in new automatic weather stations for this sparsely gauged area.
Our Dissemination and Communication Team has been engaging with radio stations and audiences via mentoring on how to report on climate-related issues. This has culminated in a new massive open online course (MOOC) designed to train journalists to report on climate (in English and Swahili), and we are currently working to have this course translated into the Somali language. We are currently working with EU Horizon 2020 sister projects, CONFER and FOCUS-Africa, to create a series of webinars and podcasts, building off a webinar we held at the end of 2021, called Understanding Seasonal Forecasts in Africa: Q&A With Climate Scientists. The webinars will be hosted at ICPAC, while we plan to release the podcast series at the COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh.