Periodic Reporting for period 3 - CONFER (Co-production of Climate Services for East Africa)
Reporting period: 2023-09-01 to 2024-09-30
The CONFER project (2020–2024) was designed to address the challenges of climate variability in East Africa, a region highly vulnerable to extreme events such as droughts, floods, and erratic rainfall patterns. These events pose significant risks to water, energy, and food security, directly impacting livelihoods and economic stability. Despite the growing importance of climate information for decision-making, limited access to reliable, actionable forecasts continues to hinder adaptive strategies across the region.
Climate variability disproportionately affects rural communities that depend on rain-fed agriculture and limited water resources, compounding existing vulnerabilities such as poverty, rapid population growth, and environmental degradation. In this context, the development of effective climate services—tailored, accessible tools that provide early warnings and planning support—is critical for building resilience and improving livelihoods.
CONFER aimed to co-develop innovative climate services for East Africa through an interdisciplinary and participatory approach. Its key objectives included advancing seasonal forecasting accuracy using state-of-the-art methods, such as machine learning and hydrological modelling, and creating tailored products to meet user needs. The project also prioritised building the technical capacity of ICPAC, NMHSs, and other stakeholders to generate, interpret, and disseminate climate information. Sustainability was a core focus, with efforts to embed services into operational systems and foster collaborations for long-term impact.
By addressing these objectives, CONFER sought to bridge the gap between scientific advancements and societal needs, contributing to regional resilience and sustainable development. Its co-production-driven approach ensured that end-users—farmers, water managers, energy planners, and policymakers—were integral to the design and implementation of climate services, enabling better adaptation to the challenges posed by climate variability.
Climate variability disproportionately affects rural communities that depend on rain-fed agriculture and limited water resources, compounding existing vulnerabilities such as poverty, rapid population growth, and environmental degradation. In this context, the development of effective climate services—tailored, accessible tools that provide early warnings and planning support—is critical for building resilience and improving livelihoods.
CONFER aimed to co-develop innovative climate services for East Africa through an interdisciplinary and participatory approach. Its key objectives included advancing seasonal forecasting accuracy using state-of-the-art methods, such as machine learning and hydrological modelling, and creating tailored products to meet user needs. The project also prioritised building the technical capacity of ICPAC, NMHSs, and other stakeholders to generate, interpret, and disseminate climate information. Sustainability was a core focus, with efforts to embed services into operational systems and foster collaborations for long-term impact.
By addressing these objectives, CONFER sought to bridge the gap between scientific advancements and societal needs, contributing to regional resilience and sustainable development. Its co-production-driven approach ensured that end-users—farmers, water managers, energy planners, and policymakers—were integral to the design and implementation of climate services, enabling better adaptation to the challenges posed by climate variability.
Since its launch in September 2020, the CONFER project has delivered significant advancements in climate services for East Africa. By leveraging innovative scientific approaches and strong stakeholder engagement, CONFER enhanced seasonal forecasting, developed user-driven tools, and strengthened regional capacities.
The project achieved several scientific milestones. Machine learning-based NDVI forecasting models were developed to improve agricultural planning, while hydrological models provided new insights into flood risk and water resource management. Tools like the SeaVal R-package supported the evaluation of seasonal forecasts, ensuring their accuracy and practical relevance. These advancements bridged gaps in understanding and operationalisation, addressing critical needs in the region.
Capacity-building efforts were a cornerstone of CONFER’s success. Foundational climate prediction workshops, held annually, equipped NMHS staff with essential skills for seasonal forecasting. Synergy-building sessions enhanced collaboration among NMHSs, policymakers, journalists, and the private sector, improving the use and communication of climate information. The Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) trained over 240 journalists, including many women, to effectively report on climate change and extreme weather impacts.
Dissemination and sustainability were prioritised throughout the project. Operational tools were integrated into ICPAC’s systems, and results were shared at GHACOF events and through high-impact publications. Collaborations with related projects, such as ACACIA, ensure that CONFER’s innovations will continue to benefit the region.
CONFER’s legacy lies in its ability to combine cutting-edge science with participatory approaches, delivering impactful climate services that support resilience in critical sectors like agriculture, water, and energy.
The project achieved several scientific milestones. Machine learning-based NDVI forecasting models were developed to improve agricultural planning, while hydrological models provided new insights into flood risk and water resource management. Tools like the SeaVal R-package supported the evaluation of seasonal forecasts, ensuring their accuracy and practical relevance. These advancements bridged gaps in understanding and operationalisation, addressing critical needs in the region.
Capacity-building efforts were a cornerstone of CONFER’s success. Foundational climate prediction workshops, held annually, equipped NMHS staff with essential skills for seasonal forecasting. Synergy-building sessions enhanced collaboration among NMHSs, policymakers, journalists, and the private sector, improving the use and communication of climate information. The Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) trained over 240 journalists, including many women, to effectively report on climate change and extreme weather impacts.
Dissemination and sustainability were prioritised throughout the project. Operational tools were integrated into ICPAC’s systems, and results were shared at GHACOF events and through high-impact publications. Collaborations with related projects, such as ACACIA, ensure that CONFER’s innovations will continue to benefit the region.
CONFER’s legacy lies in its ability to combine cutting-edge science with participatory approaches, delivering impactful climate services that support resilience in critical sectors like agriculture, water, and energy.
The CONFER project advanced the state of the art in climate services for East Africa, setting new benchmarks for scientific innovation, co-production, and capacity building. By combining machine learning, hydrological modelling, and participatory design, the project delivered tailored tools to address sector-specific needs in water, energy, and food security.
Key scientific achievements include the development of an NDVI forecasting model, which improved agricultural planning by predicting crop health and yield potential. Hydrological models provided actionable insights for flood risk assessment and water resource management. The SeaVal R-package enabled robust evaluation of seasonal forecasts, enhancing their usability and accuracy. These tools bridged gaps between research and practice, demonstrating the potential of advanced methodologies to inform decision-making in vulnerable regions.
Capacity-building efforts ensured the practical application and sustainability of these innovations. Foundational workshops equipped NMHS staff with technical expertise, while the MOOC trained journalists to communicate climate issues effectively, fostering community awareness. Synergy-building workshops strengthened collaboration among key stakeholders, enhancing the uptake and dissemination of climate services.
The project’s potential impacts are far-reaching. Tailored rainfall onset forecasts and improved hydrological models enable better planning in agriculture and water management, reducing the risks posed by climate variability. Training activities and tools embedded at ICPAC ensure the sustainability of these services, while collaborations with projects like ACACIA amplify their long-term impact.
CONFER’s co-production-driven approach demonstrated how user engagement can transform climate services, ensuring they are actionable, inclusive, and relevant. Its legacy lies in its ability to integrate scientific advancements with societal needs, creating scalable, sustainable solutions for climate adaptation in East Africa.
Key scientific achievements include the development of an NDVI forecasting model, which improved agricultural planning by predicting crop health and yield potential. Hydrological models provided actionable insights for flood risk assessment and water resource management. The SeaVal R-package enabled robust evaluation of seasonal forecasts, enhancing their usability and accuracy. These tools bridged gaps between research and practice, demonstrating the potential of advanced methodologies to inform decision-making in vulnerable regions.
Capacity-building efforts ensured the practical application and sustainability of these innovations. Foundational workshops equipped NMHS staff with technical expertise, while the MOOC trained journalists to communicate climate issues effectively, fostering community awareness. Synergy-building workshops strengthened collaboration among key stakeholders, enhancing the uptake and dissemination of climate services.
The project’s potential impacts are far-reaching. Tailored rainfall onset forecasts and improved hydrological models enable better planning in agriculture and water management, reducing the risks posed by climate variability. Training activities and tools embedded at ICPAC ensure the sustainability of these services, while collaborations with projects like ACACIA amplify their long-term impact.
CONFER’s co-production-driven approach demonstrated how user engagement can transform climate services, ensuring they are actionable, inclusive, and relevant. Its legacy lies in its ability to integrate scientific advancements with societal needs, creating scalable, sustainable solutions for climate adaptation in East Africa.