Periodic Reporting for period 2 - EUHFORIA_2.0 (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset 2.0)
Période du rapport: 2020-12-01 au 2022-11-30
Our society is becoming increasingly dependent on technologies that "space weather" phenomena can damage, including power grids and satellites. The main culprits are Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs): solar eruptions that launch large plasma clouds into interplanetary space. Associated to such eruptions are highly energetic particles, known as Solar Energetic Particles (SEP). Both SEPS and CMEs propagate through the solar wind, which consists of fast and slow streams. These wind streams are separated by compressed stream interaction regions (SIRs).
Interactions of CMEs and SIRs with Earth’s magnetosphere and SEPs represent two very different space weather events. While CMEs and SIRs arrive to Earth in one to six days, SEPs arrive in tens of minutes. CMEs and SIRs cause disturbances to Earth's magnetic field and to the radiation and current systems in the magnetosphere and ionosphere, with effects reaching all the way to the ground. CMEs are the key drivers of strong and extreme magnetic storms. SIRs drive mainly weak storms but they produce high energy electrons in Earth's radiation belts. The radiation hazards produced by SEPs can damage the electronics on board of satellites and poses a threat to astronauts and passengers in high-flying aircraft.
This project aims at developing the world’s most advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the solar wind and CME model EUHFORIA with the SEP model PARADISE. EUHFORIA 2.0 addresses the geoeffectiveness, impacts, and mitigation related to CMEs, SIRs, and SEPs, with emphasis on its application to forecasting Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) and radiation in geospace. We apply innovative methods to extend the model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power, namely 1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and 2) a physics-based SEP acceleration and transport model. In addition, the upgraded EUHFORIA model will be coupled to existing models for GICs and atmospheric radiation transport. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for the radiation hazards from SEPs and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated in the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre of ESA and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC, making it available to the space weather community.
Interactions of CMEs and SIRs with Earth’s magnetosphere and SEPs represent two very different space weather events. While CMEs and SIRs arrive to Earth in one to six days, SEPs arrive in tens of minutes. CMEs and SIRs cause disturbances to Earth's magnetic field and to the radiation and current systems in the magnetosphere and ionosphere, with effects reaching all the way to the ground. CMEs are the key drivers of strong and extreme magnetic storms. SIRs drive mainly weak storms but they produce high energy electrons in Earth's radiation belts. The radiation hazards produced by SEPs can damage the electronics on board of satellites and poses a threat to astronauts and passengers in high-flying aircraft.
This project aims at developing the world’s most advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the solar wind and CME model EUHFORIA with the SEP model PARADISE. EUHFORIA 2.0 addresses the geoeffectiveness, impacts, and mitigation related to CMEs, SIRs, and SEPs, with emphasis on its application to forecasting Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) and radiation in geospace. We apply innovative methods to extend the model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power, namely 1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and 2) a physics-based SEP acceleration and transport model. In addition, the upgraded EUHFORIA model will be coupled to existing models for GICs and atmospheric radiation transport. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for the radiation hazards from SEPs and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated in the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre of ESA and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC, making it available to the space weather community.
• EUHFORIA simulations with spheromak CMEs have demonstrated that the combination of two common CMEs with the right timing can become very geo-effective.
• The MULTI-VP coronal 1D MHD model has been coupled to EUHFORIA and has been shown to improve the solar wind modelling.
• MULTI-VP has been integrated in the VSWMC and will become available to allusers after the next upgrade (planned by ESA).
• Two other coronal models, the magnetofrictional model and a polytropic MHD model, have been implemented and are being validated.
• The torus and Fri3D flux-rope CME models have been implemented in EUHFORIA and a detailed plan has been developed to improve the determination of the required input parameters.
• An alternative solar wind model has been implemented including grid stretching and adaptive mesh refinement.
• A new massively parallel implementation of the Lagrangian approach has been achieved and the first proof of concept simulation has been completed.
• A first paper has been published on the results of the Representer Technique, estimating the effect of data-assimilation based on Kalman filtering for solar wind modelling.
• A feasibility study has shown that among the available SEP models, the PARADISE model suits best the goals of the project.
• A semi-analytical SEP emission model is being validated, by comparing simulations with theory of a simplified model of the CME foreshock turbulence.
• A catalog has been derived of input parameters for the modeling of the geomagnetic cutoff rigidities and asymptotic viewing directions.
• Modeling of the geomagnetic quantities is ongoing and a database is in preparation.
• Electrical power grid models have been constructed from the published literature for Ireland, Finland and Austria.
• Grids of ionospheric conductivities from the IPIM model have been computed.
• The specific user requirements of EUHFORIA 2.0 have been formulated.
• A dissemination plan has been developed and a Space Weather Shop, a Space Weather Activity Centre, and a Space Weather News Centre have bee set up.
• The MULTI-VP coronal 1D MHD model has been coupled to EUHFORIA and has been shown to improve the solar wind modelling.
• MULTI-VP has been integrated in the VSWMC and will become available to allusers after the next upgrade (planned by ESA).
• Two other coronal models, the magnetofrictional model and a polytropic MHD model, have been implemented and are being validated.
• The torus and Fri3D flux-rope CME models have been implemented in EUHFORIA and a detailed plan has been developed to improve the determination of the required input parameters.
• An alternative solar wind model has been implemented including grid stretching and adaptive mesh refinement.
• A new massively parallel implementation of the Lagrangian approach has been achieved and the first proof of concept simulation has been completed.
• A first paper has been published on the results of the Representer Technique, estimating the effect of data-assimilation based on Kalman filtering for solar wind modelling.
• A feasibility study has shown that among the available SEP models, the PARADISE model suits best the goals of the project.
• A semi-analytical SEP emission model is being validated, by comparing simulations with theory of a simplified model of the CME foreshock turbulence.
• A catalog has been derived of input parameters for the modeling of the geomagnetic cutoff rigidities and asymptotic viewing directions.
• Modeling of the geomagnetic quantities is ongoing and a database is in preparation.
• Electrical power grid models have been constructed from the published literature for Ireland, Finland and Austria.
• Grids of ionospheric conductivities from the IPIM model have been computed.
• The specific user requirements of EUHFORIA 2.0 have been formulated.
• A dissemination plan has been developed and a Space Weather Shop, a Space Weather Activity Centre, and a Space Weather News Centre have bee set up.
EUHFORIA 2.0 is designed to address key science questions and urgent space weather modelling priorities. The tools developed in EUHFORIA 2.0 will lead to a profound impact on our scientific understanding of space weather and provide insight in the parameters that affect our modern society. In particular, the advanced coronal and flux rope models will enable to study the evolution of CMEs close to the Sun. The most important scientific breakthrough, however, will come from the integration of SEP models. EUHFORIA 2.0 will produce the first European SEP forecasting model that takes input from MHD simulations of solar eruptions. The final product will include a novel radiation dose now-cast application and reveal which space conditions yield the most severe GICs in Europe.
• The coupling of MULTI-VP to EUHFORIA-Heliosphere and the coupling of PARADISE to EUHFORIA are ’de facto’ new models with higher predictive capability.
• The EUHFORIA implementation in the Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre(VSWMC, ESA) has been improved
• MULTI-VP has been integrated in the VSWMC and will become available to allusers after the next upgrade (planned by ESA).
• EUHFORIA is used on a daily basis at ROB and at UK MetOffice for spaceweather forecasts.
• Alternative coronal models (MFM and MHD based) are being developed andtested. They will become operational as soon as they are fully validated andproved to be robust.
• EUHFORIA proved to be able to predict CIR shock and CME shock arrivaltimes as well as the arrival and profile of the magnetic clouds, at least for head-on impacts.
• The coupling of EUHFORIA to the geo-effects models in the VSWMC enables to predict these indices two to threedays earlier then when using L1 measurements.
• EUHFORIA simulations with spheromak CMEs have demonstrated that the combination of two subsequent common CMEs can become very geo-effective.
• The coupling of MULTI-VP to EUHFORIA-Heliosphere and the coupling of PARADISE to EUHFORIA are ’de facto’ new models with higher predictive capability.
• The EUHFORIA implementation in the Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre(VSWMC, ESA) has been improved
• MULTI-VP has been integrated in the VSWMC and will become available to allusers after the next upgrade (planned by ESA).
• EUHFORIA is used on a daily basis at ROB and at UK MetOffice for spaceweather forecasts.
• Alternative coronal models (MFM and MHD based) are being developed andtested. They will become operational as soon as they are fully validated andproved to be robust.
• EUHFORIA proved to be able to predict CIR shock and CME shock arrivaltimes as well as the arrival and profile of the magnetic clouds, at least for head-on impacts.
• The coupling of EUHFORIA to the geo-effects models in the VSWMC enables to predict these indices two to threedays earlier then when using L1 measurements.
• EUHFORIA simulations with spheromak CMEs have demonstrated that the combination of two subsequent common CMEs can become very geo-effective.