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Future Migration Scenarios for Europe

Deliverables

Report on available datasets and project results

This report will summarise the results of taels 2.2 to 2.4 for the public.

Set of policy recommendations

Report on policy recommendations for stakeholders, including policy briefs. The initial version of this deliverable is due in M12, and will be continuously updated until the end of the project.

Report on drivers of international migration

This deliverable will focus on the assessment of existing knowledge on migration motives and potentials from different sources (i.e. UN, OECD, World Bank, Gallup, IOM, etc.), as well as on quantitative analyses of time trends of international migration and existing survey data regarding the relationship between international migration and its key determinants. Attention will be paid, among others, to the role of existing livelihood opportunities (e.g. inequalities, income levels, job opportunities, traditional gender roles) in countries of origin, transnational networks, EU policies to govern migration flows, and labour markets and ageing populations in destination countries.

Population dataset

For four European countries (Denmark, Poland, Netherlands and Italy) the same set of data shall be collected on a NUTS 2 level. These subnational data will serve as direct input to the regional migration scenarios developed in WP4. For both national and NUTS 2 level datasets, particular efforts will be placed on constructing datasets for time periods covering –if possible –the years 1990 to 2018. Data will be harmonized using the model described in Wisniowski et al. (2016).

Publications

Migration in the Mediterranean region: A response to crises and an emergency in its own right.

Author(s): Federico Benassi; Maria Carella; Frank Heins
Published in: Investigaciones Geográficas, Issue 77, 2022, Page(s) 15-36, ISSN 0213-4691
Publisher: University of Alicante
DOI: 10.14198/ingeo.19461

Estimating Future Migration Flows Under Social and Environmental Scenarios Taking Into Account Interactions: Insights From a Survey Among Migration Scholars

Author(s): Michaël Boissonneault; Petra Wieke de Jong
Published in: Frontiers in Human Dynamics, Issue 14, 2022, ISSN 2673-2726
Publisher: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fhumd.2022.897562

Evaluation and extension of the radiation model for internal migration

Author(s): Lucas Kluge; Jacob Schewe
Published in: Physical Review E, Issue 104, 054311, 2021, ISSN 2470-0045
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.104.054311

Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return ows, and poverty constraints

Author(s): Albano Rikani, Jacob Schewe
Published in: Demographic Research, Issue 45, 2021, Page(s) 87–140, ISSN 1435-9871
Publisher: Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research/Max-Planck-institut fur Demografische Forschung
DOI: 10.4054/demres.2021.45.4

Closing disparities between European sending and receiving international migration flow data

Author(s): Guy J. Abel; Dilek Yildiz
Published in: Regional Studies, Regional Science, Issue 9(1), 2022, Page(s) 523-525, ISSN 2168-1376
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
DOI: 10.1080/21681376.2022.2096478

International Migration and the (Un)happiness Push: Evidence from Polish Longitudinal Data

Author(s): Jan Brzozowski, Nicola Coniglio
Published in: International Migration Review, Issue 55(5), 2021, Page(s) 1089-1120, ISSN 0197-9183
Publisher: Center for Migration Studies
DOI: 10.1177/01979183211004835

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries

Author(s): Miguel González-Leonardo , Michaela Potančoková, Dilek Yildiz, Francisco Rowe
Published in: PLOS ONE, Issue 18(1), 2023, Page(s) e0280324, ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280324

Investigating neighbourhood concentration of immigrants in Poland: explorative evidence from Kraków

Author(s): Marcin Stonawski, Jan Brzozowski, Konrad Pędziwiatr, Marina Georgati
Published in: Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Issue 56, 2022, Page(s) 143-159, ISSN 1732-4254
Publisher: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu
DOI: 10.12775/bgss-2022-0019

Radiation model for migration with directional preferences

Author(s): Lucas Kluge; Anders Levermann; Jacob Schewe
Published in: Physical Review E, Issue 106, 064138, 2022, ISSN 2470-0045
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.106.064138

Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data

Author(s): Andreea Avramescu, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
Published in: Demographic Research, Issue 45, 2021, Page(s) 1219–1254, ISSN 1435-9871
Publisher: Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research/Max-Planck-institut fur Demografische Forschung
DOI: 10.4054/demres.2021.45.40

ROMANIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Styrnol, Natalia; Wiktor-Mach, Dobrosława; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-053-5
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7784651

SLOVAKIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Magdziarz, Wiktor; Pędziwiatr, Konrad; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-054-2
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7785716

CROATIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Styrnol, Natalia; Wiktor-Mach, Dobrosława; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-047-4
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7778343

Improving the evidence for European migration policy making

Author(s): Sánchez Gassen, Nora
Published in: FUME Policy Brief, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-068-9
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8093814

HUNGARY - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Magdziarz, Wiktor; Pędziwiatr, Konrad; Demeshok, Daryna; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-048-1
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7781975

Polish case study: Results of the survey on immigrants coming to CEE

Author(s): Brzozowski, Jan; Stonawski, Marcin; Pędziwiatr, Konrad
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-055-9
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7794538

LATVIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Brzozowski, Jan; Szkołut, Sylwia; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-050-4
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7782042

BULGARIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Styrnol, Natalia; Wiktor-Mach, Dobrosława; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-045-0
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7777280

Policy brief: Why do people migrate? Where do they choose to migrate?

Author(s): Sánchez Gassen, Nora; Heleniak, Timothy
Published in: FUME Policy Brief, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-044-3
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7754076

SLOVENIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Styrnol, Natalia; Wiktor-Mach, Dobrosława; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-056-6
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7785750

SLOVAKIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Magdziarz, Wiktor; Pędziwiatr, Konrad; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-054-2
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7785717

CZECH REPUBLIC - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Magdziarz, Wiktor; Pędziwiatr, Konrad; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-046-7
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7778399

POLAND - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Brzozowski, Jan; Chwat, Olivia; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-051-1
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7784303

Global Scenario Narratives

Author(s): Petra de Jong; Michaël Boissonneault
Published in: FUME Working Paper, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-020-7
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7777187

ESTONIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Brzozowski, Jan; Chwat, Olivia; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-049-8
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7778436

SENEGAL: Drivers and trajectories of migration to Europe

Author(s): degli Uberti, Stefano; Heins, Frank; Sall, Mohamadou
Published in: Issue 6, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8189476

Drivers of International Migration

Author(s): Heins, Frank; degli Uberti, Stefano; Bonifazi, Corrado; Crisci, Massimiliano; Paparusso, Angela; Pelliccia, Andrea; De Rocchi, Daniele; Vitielo, Mattia
Published in: 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8183340

Migration Scenario Narratives

Author(s): Yildiz, Dilek; Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Schewe, Jacob
Published in: Issue 2, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8183252

Delphi study - Future Migration Scenarios for Europe

Author(s): Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Campbell, Gregory; Kim, Ji Hye
Published in: Issue 4, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8183493

IRAQ: Drivers and Trajectories of Migration to Europe

Author(s): DIOP, Lanciné Eric Nestor; Kessler, Carsten; Basheer, Saeed
Published in: Issue 4, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8189420

UKRAINE: Drivers and Trajectories of Migration to Europe

Author(s): Soboleva, Olena; Yarosh, Oleg; Wiktor-Mach, Dobrosława; Pędziwiatr, Konrad
Published in: Issue 2, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8189593

Migration scenarios and their demographic impacts for the EU member states

Author(s): Yildiz, Dilek; van Wissen, Leo; Olaya-Bucaro, Orlando; K.C., Samir
Published in: Issue 2, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8191587

Migration and residential segregation in European cities – now and future

Author(s): Stonawski, Marcin; Georgati, Marina; Crisci, Massimiliano; van Wissen, Leo; Brzozowski, Jan
Published in: Issue 2, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8192025

TUNISIA: Drivers and trajectories of migration to Europe

Author(s): Sobczak-Szelc, Karolina; Pędziwiatr, Konrad; Boubakri, Hassen
Published in: Issue 7, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8189334

Spatially Explicit Population Projections: The case of Copenhagen, Denmark

Author(s): Marina Georgati, Carsten Keßler
Published in: AGILE: GIScience Series, Issue 2, 2021, Page(s) 28
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/agile-giss-2-28-2021

Spatial Disaggregation of Population Subgroups Leveraging Self-Trained Multi-Output Gradient Boosting Regression Trees

Author(s): Marina Georgati João Monteiro Bruno Martins Carsten Keßler
Published in: AGILE: GIScience Series, Issue 3, 5, 2022
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/agile-giss-3-5-2022

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