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Future Migration Scenarios for Europe

Project description

Mapping migrant movement patterns

Free movement is one of the core principles of the EU. Accordingly, migration both within and to the EU is high on the agenda for citizens and policymakers across Member States. The topics range from labour migration and over strategies to deal with aging resident populations, to the fair distribution of refugees and asylum seekers. The EU-funded FUME project will review the patterns, motivations and modalities of migration in order to gain a deeper understanding of the phenomenon. Its goal is to identify the push and pull factors by reviewing regional and local circumstances. The project will also propose how future regional socio-demographic, economic and environmental challenges may shape future migrant movement patterns in Europe.


The local circumstances play a major role in the migration process, from the decision to migrate through the transit process up to the settlement in the destination countries. Nearly all international migrants move to – generally the largest – cities in destination countries, either directly, or after one or more internal moves. This is also the case across Europe, where population growth in many cities can be largely attributed to an influx of migrants. At the same time, in countries of origin the largest cities often function as gateways to destinations abroad. Many potential migrants in villages and small towns in origin countries first move to these larger cities before leaving their country. Cities, therefore, both in countries of origin and destination, are significant determinants of global migration and small-scale local knowledge on migration is necessary to avoid misleading results associated with the limitations arising from the use of global or national patterns only. FUME will therefore focus on understanding the patterns, motivations and modalities of migration at multiple geographical scales, from international through regional to the local, and on imagining possible futures. FUME will determine 1) the major factors explaining migrant movement patterns by analysing regional and local circumstances that either attract migrants or ‘push’ potential migrants to move, and 2) elaborate how possible future regional socio-demographic, economic and environmental challenges may shape future migrant movement patterns in Europe. FUME will support appropriate planning and policy-making by formulating integrated and coherent visions of how migration to and within Europe might evolve under different scenarios relating to potential demographic, socio-economic, political and environmental challenges.

Call for proposal


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Sub call



Net EU contribution
€ 618 037,50
9220 Aalborg

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Danmark Nordjylland Nordjylland
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Total cost
€ 618 037,50

Participants (8)