Integrated modelling of transport scenarios from stakeholders for air quality and emissions

Project Information

INTRANCES

Grant agreement ID: 886050

DOI

10.3030/886050

Project closed

EC signature date 20 March 2020

Start date 1 July 2020

End date 30 June 2022

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 172 932,48

EU contribution

€ 172 932,48

Coordinated by

UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - INTRANCES (Integrated modelling of transport scenarios from stakeholders for air quality and emissions)

Reporting period: 2020-07-01 to 2022-06-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The INTRANCES project brought together land use and transport planning specialists and transport users to carry out participatory scenario modelling of land use and transport in light of EU policy objectives on clean air and climate. INTRANCES engaged key stakeholders to develop of four land use and transport scenarios to help address EU policy goals: Remote Working, The Fifteen-Minute City, Electric City and Public City. The project also examined the spatial and social distribution of air pollution, and developed an integrated land use model to evaluate future land use and CO2 emissions to the year 2050, using Open Data on CO2 emissions at NUTS 3 (municipal) level.
Key findings include:
1) the impact of air pollution on the population in Madrid is inequitably distributed, with poorer communities suffering greater exposure; 2) optimising residential location for cleaner air could lead to greater sprawl and increase energy and emissions from transport; 3) remote working is a less useful driver of sustainability that it may appear to be, and may also increase inequality; 4) electrification as a sustainable transport paradigm can sharply reduce air pollution, but its impact on CO2 emissions depends on the source of electricity generated, and if the whole vehicle fleet were electrified, green sources of electricity would not be sufficient to supply it; 5) beyond transport, existing urban development tendencies in Spain make CO2 reduction targets, and in particular, net zero, look unrealistic without enormous reductions in domestic and light industrial emissions associate with heating and lighting.
Finally, the interconnected nature of all of these aspects means that more sustainable, liveable cities can only be achieved through well-designed policies that look for benefits across multiple sectors and communities.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

WP2 provided the research background, reviewing the trade-offs and conflicts that arise in implementation of sustainable transport policies in the EU and beyond. Literature search was carried out in two leading scientific databases, Web of Science and Scopus, and revealed a total of 343 references, reduced to 305 by the removal of 43 duplicate records. Preliminary screening led to a final selection of 150 relevant references.
WP2 also looked at the spatial scale of NO2 and PM2.5 contamination. First, a spatial multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) model was developed for optimal land use allocation. When information of concentration of NO2 and PM2.5 pollution was included in the MCE model, spatially optimum locations for new residential development were driven to the periphery of the city, something that would lead to increased dispersion if contamination levels were to be incorporated in future strategic plans or reflected in the housing market. The project team also investigated the relationship between air pollution levels and average gross household income using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and Geographically Weighted regression (GWR), finding a clear, though very imprecise and highly spatially varying negative relationship between NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations and minimum household income.
In WP3, a participatory process was established for the co-development of future transport scenarios with representatives of the key stakeholder community. A total of 13 semi-structured interviews were carried out with key stakeholders from different domains (public administration, transport planners, scientific experts and civil society organisations). Systematic analysis of stakeholders’ responses allowed four distinct scenarios to emerge: Remote Working, The Fifteen-Minute City, Electric City and Public City.
In WP4, we developed and calibrated an integrated land use model for Madrid which we used to estimate CO2 emissions per municipality in 2050 (Figure 1). The principal conclusion of this work is that reaching net zero by 2050 (according to the objectives of the Law 7/2021, of May 20, on climate change and energy transition) would be virtually impossible under expected scenarios of urban expansion, unless a strong and rapid programme of decarbonisation of energy from buildings and light industry is enacted.
In WP5, we sought to draw out lessons for sustainable transport policy through knowledge co-construction activities with key policy stakeholders (Figure 2). Key lessons learnt include the impracticability of some typically advanced approaches to sustainable mobility, and agreement among participants that the last scenario (Public City) should be used as a guiding principle for enacting specific changes defined in the other three scenarios.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Progress beyond state of the art
The project’s results go beyond state-of-the art in the following key ways:
1. Local-scale GIS based analysis of outputs from novel and little explored sources – km2 grid concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 combined with census tract level data on household income, and an innovative experimental approach to scale and uncertainty.
2. Integration of stakeholder knowledge from many different domains for the co-development of sustainable transport scenarios that can be used by other projects.
3. Detailed analysis and estimation of future CO2 emissions at municipal level, using the newly available OpenGHGMap database, and incorporating realistic and plausible scenarios of future urban expansion.
4. New open source tools in the form of a new version of the SIMLANDER tool, publicly accessible from the project website.
Impacts
1.1 Impact on the researcher's career
The impact of the MSCA-IF on the researcher’s career has been very significant and direct and has resulted in the appointment of the researcher to a senior research position under a five year tenure-track research fellowship.
1.2 Development of close links with key researchers and knowledge transfer organisations
A key direct impact of the MSCA-IF grant has been the development of a number of very important research networks.
1.3 Impacts on issues related to climate change or the environment
The project has developed a coherent set of scenarios for future transport planning, and examined their feasibility. The project’s outputs clearly demonstrate the importance of this work to addressing these important climate change and environmental objectives.
1.4 Wider societal impacts
The project has contributed to addressing societal needs in terms of cleaner air, and has addressed important considerations of social justice.
1.5 Innovation activities
The rigorous testing of the SIMLANDER model, demonstrating its utility in a high impact journal paper is a clear example of testing activities. The new version of the SIMLANDER software is a new product, freely accessible under the Open Science paradigm (https://simlander.wordpress.com/2022/08/17/simlander-v2-0-released/).
1.6 Contribution towards European policy objectives and strategies and impacts on policy making
The project delivers to the EU Climate and Energy Framework for 2030 and the EU’s Clean Air Policy Measures with objectives for 2030. Beyond the EU the project addresses the Paris Climate Agreement, and UN Sustainable Development Goals, including greenhouse gas emissions reduction, increasing renewable energy and improving energy efficiency for 2030.

SIMLANDER model dialog (left) and 2050 CO2 emissions scenarios (right) (Source: Díez Rodríguez 2022)

June 2022 Stakeholder workshop in progress. (Photo: Claudia Aranda Andrades)