Projecting migration from Africa and the Middle East into EU countries, driven by climate-change-related crop failure, until 2050

Informations projet

ClimateMigration2050

N° de convention de subvention: 888404

DOI

10.3030/888404

Projet clôturé le 15 Septembre 2022

Date de signature de la CE 1 Avril 2020

Date de début 1 Février 2021

Date de fin 31 Janvier 2023

Financé au titre de

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Coût total

€ 162 806,40

Contribution de l’UE

€ 162 806,40

Coordonné par

POTSDAM-INSTITUT FUR KLIMAFOLGENFORSCHUNG EV
Germany

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ClimateMigration2050 (Projecting migration from Africa and the Middle East into EU countries, driven by climate-change-related crop failure, until 2050)

Période du rapport: 2021-02-01 au 2023-01-31

Résumé du contexte et des objectifs généraux du projet

Quantitatively predicting changes in international migration flows driven by adverse effects of climate change has been a subject of high societal and political interest, given the demographic and socio-economic implications for both sending and receiving countries. Previous work in the space of climate mobility modelling has shown that cross-border migration from agriculturally dependent countries increases as crop productivity decreases due to higher temperatures. The latest generation of global crop models project a marked decline in future crop yields in many parts of Africa, suggesting potentially important consequences for migration.
This project aimed to compile state-of-the-art demographic, economic, social, and agricultural data spanning both the historical period and, incorporating different future socio-economic and climatic scenarios, coming decades; and integrate them into a widely-used mathematical framework for modelling international migration. This aimed to identify where migration – focussing on Africa-Europe corridors – driven by climate-change-induced crop failure is likely to occur, and whether suitable agricultural adaptation may lessen adverse effects.

Travail effectué depuis le début du projet jusqu’à la fin de la période considérée dans le rapport et principaux résultats atteints jusqu’à présent

Whilst developing our model, we unexpectedly discovered that the mathematical framework that had been the state-of-the-art for modelling migration in the past two decades (known as ‘gravity models’) contained a previously unnoticed fundamental flaw. This discovery questions the conclusions drawn in a large number of publications regarding the effects that certain economic, demographic, environmental, and other variables have had, or will have, on international migration.
We published these findings in: Beyer, Schewe, & Lotze-Campen (2022): “Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics”. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 9 (56), https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01067-x.

We identified how the issue can be mathematically solved, but found that when doing so, migration dynamics turn out to be considerably more difficult to model than previously thought, and that even relationships assumed to be very robust disappear in the analysis.
Submission of these findings to an academic journal is expected for January 2023: Beyer, Abel, Manica, & Lotze-Campen (2022): “Big challenges for causal modelling of international migration dynamics”.

Moving to a different mathematical approach, we investigated the more narrow question of whether climate-related internal displacements increase international out-migration. Finding no statistically significant evidence for this, our analysis lends support to earlier qualitative works that questioned future large-scale climate-induced migration flows from Africa to Europe.
These findings are currently being under review: Beyer, Sedova, Schewe, & Lotze-Campen (2022): “Global effects of conflict- and disaster-induced displacement on internal and international migration”.

Progrès au-delà de l’état des connaissances et impact potentiel prévu (y compris l’impact socio-économique et les conséquences sociétales plus larges du projet jusqu’à présent)

Our results challenge the most widely used mathematical framework for modelling international migration. They suggest that predictions based on this approach are likely highly inaccurate and unsuitable for informing policy makers about future migration scenarios. They highlight that major methodological innovations in migration modelling are needed to address the issues identified in this project.

Discrepancy between observed migration flows and those simulated by four example gravity models.