multi-hAzard monitoring and earLy wARning systeM

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ALARM (multi-hAzard monitoring and earLy wARning systeM)

Período documentado: 2020-11-01 hasta 2021-10-31

Aviation safety can be jeopardized by multiple hazards arising from natural phenomena, e.g. severe weather, Aerosols/gases from natural hazard, space weather, and, though not directly affecting the safety of aviation but the planet, the climatic impact of aviation. Flying through thunderstorms might lead to strong turbulence, wind shear, downbursts, icing, lightning and hail. Other factors affecting aviation safety are due to aerosols/gases arising from natural hazards, e.g. fire smokes, desert dust or volcanic ash and SO2 plumes: Dense smoke clouds from wildfire and dus in low altitude drastically reduce visibility. The engine ingestion of dust/smoke aerosols can also induce severe damages (erosion, corrosion, pitot-static tube blockage). Volcanic ash and SO2 gases are also major hazards, causing windscreen abrasions, reduction of visibility, damage to aircraft instrumentation and systems, hot corrosion Space weather effects on aviation include: the disruption of radio/satellite communication; the degradation of navigation systems; increased radiation exposure to crew and passenger. Last but not least, aviation-induced climate change (also considered herein as a hazard) is not being considered today in ATM decision-making. Facing the continuing expansion of air traffic, the goal ofdeveloping a climatic aviation becomes increasingly challenging.

The overall objective of ALARM project is to develop a prototype global multi-hazard monitoring and Early Warning System for all these above exposed hazards. Continuous global Earth observations from satellite, ground-based systems, and atmospheric forecasts will be used to feed models capable of observing and predicting (nowcasting/forecasting) the displacement of particles in suspension and gas derived from natural hazards; severe weather situations; exposure to increased levels of solar radiation; and environmental hotspots potentially contributing to global warming in a large extent.

Specifically, the aim is to enhance situational awareness of all stakeholders in case of hazard crisis by facilitating the transfer of required relevant information to end-users, presenting such information in a user-friendly manner to ATM stakeholders. In summary, anticipating severe hazards and fostering better decision-making.

We can consider 5 specific objectives:

1. [covered in WP2] to develop an advanced alert system hazard service (Early Warning System – EWS). It will include alerts on particle dispersion hazards (volcanic ash, sulphur, dust clouds, smoke from forest fires) and space weather events (exposure to increased radiation levels) on a global scale (long-line flights), severe weather hazards (deep convection, extreme weather, icy clouds) on a regional scale (localised airports), and environmental hotspots (persistent contrails areas) on a global scale.
2. [covered in WP3] to bring together observational data with hindcast data in order to develop a bias correction metric that can be used to build an alarm forecast system of SO2 for airports.
3. [covered in WP4] to define the state of the art of extreme weather in EU and its connection to the climate change, and to develop nowcasting algorithms for locally developed convective systems.
4. [covered in WP5] Provide algorithms for environmental/climate hot spots based on state-of-art algorithmic climate change functions, define MET data requirements and evaluate climate impacts.
5. [covered in WP6] Develop the roadmap for future development and deployment, and draft information requirements for the SWIM service for the alert products developed in WP2 to WP5. Develop visualization API.

a) Project management and dissemination and communication.

This activity comprises the work that corresponds to WP 1 (management) and WP 7 (dissemination and communication).
During this 1st reporting period, the management work carried out has been mainly devoted to:

1. Prepare and conduct the Kick Of Meeting (M1)
2. prepare and conduct 8 Technical Board Meetings (M2, M4, M5, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11)
3. prepare and deliver the 1st Progress Report (M6)
4. prepare and conduct the 1st and 2nd Steering Board Meeting (M6 and M12), and
5. prepare (initial steps) the Intermediate Review Meeting.

On the other hand, all the necessary coordination activities have been also performed, both among partners via Microsoft Teams and between the SJU and the project coordinator via STELLAR and the European Research Portal.
The dissemination and communication tasks performed during this period are described in detail in Section 1.4.7. of the technical report.

b) Technical work linked to objective 1.

The technical work to be carried out to achieve objective 1 is included in WP 2. WP 2 is in progress (deliverable D2.1 has been approved by SJU; MS-1 achieved). Tasks 2.1 and Task 2.2 have been completed. Task 2.3 is 25% fulfilled; Task 2.4 is 10% fulfilled. Hence, the achievement of the objective is at 60%.

c) Technical work linked to objective 2.

The technical work to be carried out to achieve objective 2 is included in WP 3. WP 3 is in progress (deliverable D3.1 has been approved by SJU). Task 3.1 is at 90% fulfilled, Task 3.2 at 80% fulfilled, and Task 3.3 at 20% fulfilled. Hence, the achievement of the objective is at 60%.

d) Technical work linked to objective 3.

The technical work to be carried out to achieve objective 3 is included in WP 4. WP 4 is in progress (deliverable D4.1 has been approved by SJU). Task 4.1 is completed. Task 4.2 is completed at 40%. Task 4.3 has not started yet. Task 4.4 is completed at 20%. All in all, the achievement of the objective is at 50%.

e) Technical work linked to objective 4.

The technical work to be carried out to achieve objective 4 is included in WP 5. WP 5 is in-progress (deliverables D5.1 has been sent after review and it is pending SJU re-evaluation; MS5 achievement is linked to D5.1 approval). Task 5.1 is completed at 40%. Task 5.2 is completed at 30%. Task 5.3 is completed at 20%. All in all, the achievement of the objective is at 40%.

f) Technical work linked to objective 5.

The technical work to be carried out to achieve objective 5 is included in WP 6. WP 6 is in-progress (deliverables D6.1 is to be submitted by Dec’21). Task 6.1 is completed. Task 6.2 is fulfilled at 70%. Task 6.3 is at 10% fulfilled and Task 6.4 has not started yet. All in all, the achievement of the objective is at 33%.

The results obtained during the 1st half of the project show that the objectives of ALARM have been partially achieved.
So far, we cannot fully answer positively the RQ1 to RQ4 stated in the DoA. In the second half of the project we will work towards answering them.

Research Questions (RQ)

RQ1 Can we issue space weather alerts in regard to increased radiation levels at flight altitudes and risk for HF disruption in the polar region?
RQ2 Can models for hindcasting (blending nowcasts/forecasts and observations) of SO2 dispersion can be developed for three different airports?
RQ3: Can models for early warning & nowcasting/forecasting of severe weather events can be developed for a particular airport using in-situ instrumentation and satellite observations?
RQ4 Can we identify environmental hotspots using algorithmic-Climate Change Functions?

Therefore, section 2.1 of the DoA (“Expected impacts”) that could be potentially attained by implementing ALARM developments are still open questions to be assessed at the end of the project.

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Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ALARM (multi-hAzard monitoring and earLy wARning systeM)

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